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In 2022, Witt missed the memo that rookies were supposed to struggle. In 2023, he missed the long-held belief that sophomores slump as pitchers begin to find weaknesses in younger players to exploit them. The young man was the only other player in baseball besides Ronald Acuna to post at least 30 homers and 40 steals in 2023 and finished tied with Corbin Carroll as the sixth most valuable player in standard league formats. Witt contributed to all five categories while excelling in four of them in 2023. The only area that could stand to improve is his acceptance of walks, as he appears to like them as much as his old man hated to dish them out on the mound. If Witt could boost his OBP over .350, he could lead the league in stolen bases in 2024. As you set your draft preferences for 2024, understand Witt may not even be there if you pick as high as third.

We should always be impressed when 22 year olds hold their own at the major league level considering most players that age are still taking a bus to a small to mid-sized town near you. It is even more impressive when said players do something few others do early in their careers. Henderson was one of five corner infielders with 25 homers, 80 runs and RBIs along with 10 steals joining Walker, Freeman, Bellinger, and Goldschmidt while being five years younger than anyone else in that group. Henderson has been everything as advertised so far at the plate and in the field qualifying at both positions on the left side of the infield. The only fantasy flaw in his current profile is he has been just above average in batting average as his plate discipline is still morphing into what it could be while he continues attempting to figure out lefties who have limited him to a .199 average. Those are flaws you can live with for now while enjoying his continued overall growth

In a time of statistical volatility, it sure is nice to be able to count on the volume Ramirez produces despite the lack of supporting talent around him. Ramirez and Mike Trout lead all active players with five 20-20 seasons as Ramirez has achieved those marks in each of the past five full seasons while both accepting his walks and eschewing striking out. His 2022 and 2023 seasons by batting average and OBP were practically identical, but there was a significant dropoff in RBI as the lineup around Ramirez struggled to get runners into scoring position. Cleveland did not help that cause by focusing on slappy contact hitters and trading away Nolan Jones, but we digress. The 100-RBI plateau may be tough for Ramirez to get to once again if the lineup around him is not improved, but the volume is money in the bank as the hamate bone injury of 2019 is the only injury he has incurred in recent years.

We are going to say it: Tucker was robbed in 2023. Since Khris Davis left the league, we have lacked a statistically consistent player and Tucker looked to have filled that need with what should have been his 30th homer on the final day of the season. That is, until the official scorer turned it into a triple with an error. That scurrilous decision robbed Tucker of a third consecutive 30 homer season and his first ever 30-30 season. All joking aside, Tucker had a monster fantasy season accepting his walks, rarely striking out, and stepping up as a run producer in the third spot of the lineup while Yordan Alvarez missed time. We have longed to have Tucker hitting in the upper third of the lineup and he did not disappoint with 47 RBIs in 56 games from that spot. Whereas Dusty Baker was reticent to make changes, Joe Espada may change things up to have Tucker hit second and have Bregman in between the lefty at bats. If that happens, Tucker is worth a top five overall pick.

Despite missing 56 games due to hip and toe injuries, Judge cracked 37 homers in 2023, finishing fourth in the American League. The stars aligned in his historic 2022 MVP season and nobody should expect that level of production again, particularly in the stolen-base department (his SB total fell from 16 to just three last season). That being said, Judge is arguably the most prolific power hitter in baseball, and he chased pitches outside the strike zone less than ever last season (career-low 22.5 O-Swing%). He returned to hit .245/.408/.557 with 18 homers and 53 walks in his final 57 games, and manager Aaron Boone said in August that Judge would not need offseason surgery on his right big toe. There is no questioning his hitting ability, though it's fair to question whether the hulking outfielder/DH can hold up to the rigors of a full MLB season as he approaches age 32. Judge has reached 150 games played only twice in his career.

In the spring of 2022, Guerrero Jr. famously stated that 2021 was a trailer and now fans will see a movie. Like most sequels, the team and the player has failed to deliver on promises. Guerrero's 2021 nomadic season in friendly run environments helped him established career hights he has failed to come close to in each of the past two seasons. Management tweaked Rogers Centre before the 2023 season, but that did not prevent Guerrero's overall numbers from sliding for a second consecutive season as he and the rest of the club struggled to produce runs despite plenty of traffic on the bases throughout the season. If you treat 2021 as an outlier rather than a ceiling, 2024 Guerrero Jr. should not disappoint you given his skills provide a very high floor. Just remember that sequels are rarely better than the original and Vlady's 2021 season is a cult classic that should be appreciated rather than expected.

Altuve didn't make his season debut until mid-May after suffering a fractured right thumb during World Baseball Classic play. He also missed about three weeks of action around midseason with a strained oblique. In the 90 games he was healthy, Altuve was dynamite, posting an OPS over .900 for the second year in a row. He also did his usual thing in the postseason, putting up a .906 OPS with four home runs in 11 games. Altuve will turn 34 in May and he's not a bastion of health as he was earlier in his career, nor is he an elite base stealer anymore (although he's rebounded there the last two seasons). The all-around package remains excellent, though, and worthy of an early-round fantasy selection.

Rodriguez followed up his excellent rookie season with an even more productive sophomore season, excelling in all five scoring categories on his way to finishing as the eighth-most valuable fantasy player in standard formats in 2023. Rodriguez was the only player in the American League to hit at least 30 homers, score and drive in over 100, while also stealing more than 30 bags while Ronald Acuna bested him in every category overall. That said, the youngster is still prone to slumps. He hit below .250 in three of the six months and just three of his homers and 21 of his RBI came in high-leverage situations. A monster second half got him to his final numbers, and he really caught his stride once he was left in the second spot of the lineup behind J.P. Crawford's on-base percentage. You should expect more of the same from Rodriguez in 2024 with fewer slumps in between bursts of awesomeness as he continues to mature as a hitter.

If Alvarez had a 100% health rating, you could make the case for him being the first hitter taken after Acuna Jr. When Alvarez is not playing through an injury or missing time with an injury, he is a run producing monster. Alvarez was limited to 114 games due to hand, arm, and an oblique injury yet still managed to finish in the top 25 for home runs and RBI despite the missed time. Alvarez is doing now what David Ortiz was doing at the end of his career numbers wise, but doing so in 80% of the plate appearances. If Alvarez could ever get a full season, 2005-2007 Ortiz numbers are at the edge of possibilities for him because he is that good of a hitter. He takes his walks and he does not strike out at the rate other hulks like him do while also handling lefties well. Simply put, this is a fantasy foundational player who is a perennial MVP candidate and worth the risk to reach because the numbers he could put up in a 600 plate appearance season will win leagues.

Terence Mann told us in Field of Dreams that the one constant through all the years is baseball. He was wrong; the one constant is Devers continues to rake in Boston whether they are in a boom year contending for a title or a bust year beginning another refresh cycle as the club was in 2023. Devers finished just inside the top 30 overall fantasy players in 2023 despite the lineup issues around him with the early injury to Duvall and the ups and downs of the the youngsters Casas and Duran. Devers continued his Saberhagenmetric cycle of 30 homer & 100+ RBI seasons in odd-numbered seasons but may have fallen into the trap of the new shifting rules. Devers had his highest pull percentage in five seasons and hit for his lowest full-season batting average since 2018. His StatCast measures are still extremely red, in a good way, nearly across the board as he enters the prime years for power hitters.

In large part due to working with Dustin Pedroia in the spring, Duran displayed a positive change in attitude, not to mention a reworked swing. Even so, Duran opened the season with Triple-A Worcester before being called up in early April to add outfield depth following the wrist injury to Adam Duvall. Duran turned out to be more than depth as he became the regular center fielder, demonstrating much more hustle. Unfortunately, Duran was limited to only 102 games as he missed almost a quarter of the season after season-ending surgery on his left big toe. The league had begun to adjust, so the lost time makes it harder to evaluate the extent of Duran's break out. Through July 23, he batted .317/.367/.514, but afterwards, he posted a .219/.269/.370 line. Duran is expected to be ready for spring training and should be a regular in the outfield. There is no doubting his stolen base prowess, but his power and ability to get on base are unclear. He'll probably land closer to the early version, but don't expect a repeat of his pre-All-Star break production.

The back of Carter's baseball card looks pristine and he shined on a big postseason stage, but there is one glaring weakness to acknowledge: his inability to hit lefties. He should be a fantastic option near the top of the lineup against righties and has the speed to steal 20-plus bases. Carter's hard-hit data is middling, especially for a top prospect who is big-league ready. However, he is a master at getting the barrel to the ball and taking opposite-handed pitchers out to the pull side. Carter's 13.4 O-Swing% was incredibly low, especially for a rookie hitter who also slugged .645 in 75 MLB plate appearances. For now, he is a premium platoon prospect. He went hitless with one walk and six strikeouts in 11 plate appearances against big-league lefties and notched one extra-base hit (a double) while striking out 28 times in 106 plate appearances against southpaws at Double-A and Triple-A. The Rangers are loaded, so Carter may platoon, but he could still go 15/20 with a high OBP and won't turn 22 until August.

Semien needed a strong final four months to rebound from a slow start in his first season with the Rangers. He was much steadier in his second year and easily better overall with an .826 OPS in 2023 which was nearly 100 points higher than his 2022 mark. Semien's Statcast page was underwhelming as it always tends to be, but he's mastered the art of pulling flyballs down the line and just over the wall to the point that it's impossible to doubt that he simply has that skill. He also cut his strikeout rate in 2023 to 14.6 percent, allowing him to hit for a solid .276 average even with all the weakly- to moderately-struck flyballs mixed in. Finally, Semien continues to be the modern day Iron Man, leading the league in plate appearances for the third straight season. He's about as safe as an early-round pick gets.

Garcia was likely a title maker for many fantasy managers coming off a season where he set career bests in three categories by maximizing power and being more accepting of his walks. Naturally, the power growth fueled a second consecutive 100 RBI season and the increased time on base allowed him to score 20 more runs than he did in 2022, and the steals went..down? Garcia was 81% successful in his 31 attempts in 2022, but only attempted 10 steals (9 successfully) last season. Some of that comes down to a declining sprint speed which went from the 90's to the 40's in a hurry but there was also more traffic on the bases in Texas than we had previously been. Garcia should be expected to volume his way to another valuable fantasy season in at least three categories while missing minimal time. The strikeout rate it is what it is, but Garcia is clearly able to remain productive with a very supportive team context. He's not Khris Davis consistent in batting average, but he is close.

Chisholm Jr. first got us excited for his fantasy future after a solid rookie campaign, but his follow-up efforts have been marred with injury. 2023 saw him miss time with turf toe, an oblique strain, and a hamstring strain. The turf toe required offseason surgery to fix, but the demands of the centerfield position are not likely to reduce Chisholm Jr's. injury risk any time soon. The injury risk also comes along with a batting average risk as Chisholm Jr. continues to take an aggressive approach at the plate, but around all that risk is an above average offensive player with surprising pop and speed to burn when his lower half is healthy. His dual eligibility is gone for now, but the upside risk/reward upside remains as he is quite capable of a 30-30 season if his body holds up to the demands of his position. Every season, there are a handful of players who are early market values; this will be one of those players.

Skubal underwent left flexor tendon surgery in August of 2022 and his rehab extended through the first three months of last season. He was on a limited pitch count initially upon his return and there were some bumps in the road early, but Skubal eventually rounded into form, going 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 52:6 K:BB in his final six starts (36 innings). A ninth-round pick in 2018, Skubal changed up his formula last season, dialing back his slider usage significantly for more four-seam fastballs and changeups. The changeup proved to be a big swing-and-miss pitch for him (50.6 Whiff% per Statcast) -- he still threw his slider, but the changeup became his primary secondary pitch behind the four-seamer. In total, the southpaw pitched just 95 innings last season, but if healthy, he should approach his career high of 149.1 innings set in 2021. Entering his age-27 season, Skubal will face an uphill battle every time he takes the ball for Detroit, but his skills are enticing.

Gilbert has been a rather consistent fantasy pitcher over his first three seasons when you account for the typical variability of starting pitching. His last two full seasons have had similar looks to them by innings pitched as well as peripherals even if the process to those outcomes changed. Gilbert added a splitter to his repertoire last winter and loved it so much that it became both his third pitch and replaced the straight change he threw. It was his whiffiest pitch and one of three offerings which generated at least a 30% whiff rate. Add that to a fastball with an 18% whiff rate and it is easy to see how Gilbert is 26-13 over the past two seasons with one of the better ERAs in the league. Gilbert has a little trouble with the long ball, but his stinginess with walks offsets some of that damage. He has yet to miss a start as a big league pitcher, so just typing that feels like we're cursing him for 2024.

The 31-year-old was acquired by the Mariners at the 2022 trade deadline and inked a five-year extension two months later; during his first full season with the team in 2023 he posted a 3.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 219:56 K:BB in 197 innings. The campaign ended on a sour note, however, with nine runs allowed in Castillo's final two starts, including a 2.2-frame outing against Texas that eliminated Seattle from playoff contention. His strikeout and walk rates (27.3 percent and 7.0 percent, respectively) stayed stable, but his 1.3 HR/9 was the highest since his sophomore season in 2018. Castillo typically excelled at inducing groundballs while playing for the Reds with a career rate north of 50 percent, but he saw his flyball rate jump nearly nine points to 42.4 percent in 2023 while his groundball rate dipped below 40 percent. A barrel rate of 9.4 percent and hard-hit rate of 41.8 percent each represent career worsts, which also lines up with a 3.81 xFIP. Some regression may be in store for Castillo if he's unable to rein in those trends, but he's still likely a fairly safe bet for fantasy managers in 2024 given his track record.

After being highly touted as a prospect, Kirby showed great promise in his debut season in 2022. The right-hander took his game to another level in his sophomore campaign, shaving his walk rate from 4.1% to a minuscule 2.5%, the lowest among qualified starters. Kirby has already made history multiple times with his strike-throwing; he tossed 24 consecutive strikes at one point as a rookie and now owns the record for the most quality starts with zero walks (11) by a pitcher age 25 or younger. Kirby lowered his WHIP from 1.21 as a rookie to 1.04 last season while adding more than 60 innings to his 2022 total. His five-pitch mix would seem to give him some room for growth in the strikeout department (career 23.5 K%), but until we see that growth, Kirby should probably remain just outside the fantasy ace tier.

Lugo, long a multi-inning reliever, was a full-time starter in 2023 for the first time with mixed results. He finished the season with solid ratios, but a decline in strikeouts and wins in just 8 of his 33 starts limited his overall fantasy value. Lugo has long been known for his high spin rate pitches, but his two primary offerings did not perform the same as a starter as they did when he came in from the pen. The league hit .171 off his fastball and .159 off his curveball in 2022, but those numbers jumped to .247 and .280 last year when he worked as a starter despite both pitches maintaining their high spin rates. Lugo's velocity dipped a bit working in the rotation as well. He opted out of the final year of his deal to become a free agent and cashed in with a three-year, $45 million deal in Kansas City. The workload increase of nearly 100 innings from 2021 to last year is a concern, but Lugo's contract should assure him a rotation spot with the Royals while he remains healthy.

Ober had a strong season that has him set to be a vital part of Minnesota's 2024 rotation. Ober began the season in the minors as the odd man out in a six-man rotation and got some spot starts in April before joining the rotation in May. He was sent down briefly in August to manage his workload, but finished strong with a 2.08 ERA over his last four starts (though he was hit hard in his lone playoff outing by giving up six runs in a loss). Ober doesn't have an overpowering fastball (91.4 mph average), but it's offset by his outstanding control (5% BB%) and above average off-speed pitches (slider, curve ball, change-up). His changeup became a lethal weapon by allowing just a .268 wOBA and helped lead to an overall 14.5% swinging K%. After throwing 144.1 innings, Ober shouldn't face any limitations on workload after staying healthy after struggling through injuries his first two major league seasons.

Valdez has worked the fifth-most innings of any starting pitcher over the past two seasons trailing only Alcantara, Cole, Webb, and Mikolas. The lefty has returned three consecutive seasons of double digit wins, strong ratios, and a voluminous strikeout total and even threw in a no-hitter this season against Cleveland. Valdez was 9-7 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP after completing that no-hitter on August 1st but was just 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP from then on, which does not even include his very disappointing postseason where he allowed 12 earned runs and lost all three of his starts. Valdez absolutely brings the volume you want from a high-draft pick/cost starting pitcher, but he lacks the elite velocity or K-BB% that fantasy managers like to see from foundational pitchers. His extreme groundball tendencies minmize some of that risk, and the run support in Houston continues to be plentiful. 2022 was his peak, but something between it and 2023 is very possible.

Lopez had an impressive first season in Minnesota by finishing seventh in the AL Cy Young voting and going 2-0 and giving up one run in 12.2 innings in the postseason. Lopez changed his arsenal in the offseason to feature a sweeper as his primary off-speed pitch which resulted in more strikeouts. Lopez had a career-high 29.2% K% and 14.8% swinging K%. He allowed just a .215 wOBA and generated a 36.3% K% on his sweeper. He also set a new high 194 innings while maintaining career-best velocity (94.8 average mph fastball). The Twins signed him to a four-year, $73.54 million contract extension after his trade from Miami as they believe they traded for a true ace and felt validated by his playoff performance.

After bouncing back-and-forth between starting and relieving the previous two seasons, Houck was used exclusively as a starter by the Red Sox in 2023. The results were middling, with Houck finishing with an ERA over 5.00 and not posting an ERA below 4.00 in any month. His strikeout rate (21.4 percent) was also below the league average. Houck generates lots of grounders (53 percent) and does a good job of avoiding the long ball. However, he's always had problems with left-handed batters and usually gets worse as the game moves along, attributes which scream reliever. Whether the Red Sox go that route with the right-hander or give him another shot to start in 2024 isn't clear, and unless he's used as the closer (unlikely) he's probably not going to have much fantasy value in either role.

Rodriguez's overall numbers were not impressive, but you see a better story once you break down his season. He surprisingly opened the season with Baltimore, but went 2-2 in 10 starts with a 7.35 ERA as he struggled with homers allowing 13 home runs in 45.1 innings around 56 strikeouts and 21 walks. The front office sent him down to AAA Norfolk where he shoved to a 4-0 record with a 1.96 ERA over 8 starts with improved command, which earned him a recall to the big leagues during the All-Star break. From there, all he did was go 5-2 with a 2.58 ERA over his final 13 starts while allowing 3 homers in 76.2 innings with 73 strikeouts and 21 walks. Rodriguez ramped up his fantasy stock with his summer performance, but it comes at a cost as he increased his workload 118% from 2022 to 2023 jumping from 75.2 innings to 165 when factoring in his regular and postseason work. His previous season high was 103 innings in 2021, so keep that in mind as you consider reaching for his upside on draft day.

Ryan had a roller-coaster season for the Twins as he had a 2.98 ERA with a 9.65 K/9 and 0.91 WHIP through his first 15 starts of the season. He then seemingly ran out of gas by posting a 8.63 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over this next seven starts before he went on the injured list with a strained groin. His final eight starts after he returned were not much better (5.90 ERA) and the Twins limited him to one short two-inning start in the playoffs. Ryan doesn't have great velocity (92.3 average mph fastball) but has an extremely deceptive four-seam fastball that helped him generate an excellent 29.3% K% and 14.2% swinging strike rate. His weakness is as a fly-ball pitcher (31.6% GB%) he can be prone to the long ball. Home runs were especially an issue last season with a career-worst 1.78 HR/9 driven by a high 14.9% HB/FB%. He usually limits the damage for home runs by typically having one of the lowest walk rates in baseball (5.1% BB%). Ryan will be counted on at the top of the Twins rotation and could improve significantly if he can keep the ball in the park and improve one of his off-speed pitches, which all took a step backward last year.

The crafty lefty cemented his spot in the Yankees' starting rotation in 2022 with a 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 163:38 K:BB across 158.1 innings, but he made just 12 starts in 2023 due to a rotator cuff strain. Cortes also struggled when available last season and finished with a 4.97 ERA over 63.1 innings to go along with a 1.6 HR/9 and a career-worst 40.1 percent hard-hit rate. A 3.71 xERA indicates some unfortunate results, while a 4.84 xFIP paints a less favorable underlying picture. Cortes' reliance on different arm angles and deliveries leaves less margin for error on his pitches, especially since his stuff doesn't really stand out. It also makes him more difficult to evaluate, as the numbers themselves tell less of a story than with most pitchers. A positive regression seems likely in 2024, but Cortes' lack of year-to-year track record leaves some risk coming off a poor campaign.

The Rays never spend on free agency. Their last big buy prior to Eflin was a three-year deal with James Loney, so when the Rays gave Eflin a 3 year deal for $40M, it should have gotten more attention. The front office, and pitching coach Kyle Snyder, clearly saw they could get more from him, and indeed they did. They tweaked his repertoire to use more of his cutter, added a sweeper, and encouraged him to visit different parts of the strikezone allowing Eflinl to finish as the sixth most valuable starting pitcher in fantasy baseball in 2023. The 16 wins and 177.2 innings, and 186 strikeouts were career highs as he remained more durable than he had been in recent years with Philadelphia. 2023 was also the third straight season he kept his walk rate below five percent. The risk with Eflin is always his health, but the peripherals are as rock solid as his knee has been unstable in recent years.

Crochet missed all of 2022 following Tommy John surgery and was limited to just 25 apperances between the majors and minors last season due to a shoulder injury. When healthy, the lefty walked more batters (13) at the big league level last year than he struck out (12), but the sample was limited to only 12.2 innings. He ended the season healthy, but the Crochet's persistent injury woes have made it difficult for the White Sox to settle on his role. Recent reports indicate his workload will be monitored during spring training and Chicago will determine whether to stretch him out to start in 2024, or use him in relief. Fantasy managers have been willing to gamble on Crochet's upside for a few years now, but he has yet to realize his potential. If health prevails in 2024, Crochet could re-emerge on fantasy radars, but expect a high WHIP no matter what role he fills.

Clase led the league in saves for the second straight year, tallying a career-high 44 of the Guardians' 47 total saves, while earning his second consecutive All-Star nomination. His 93.6% team save share led the league once again, as former Guardians manager Terry Francona was very straightforward with his bullpen hierarchy. However, Clase regressed in many categories, all of which new manager Stephen Vogt may consider when determining bullpen roles for 2024. Clase posted career-worst marks with 9 losses and 12 blown saves, the latter leading all relievers. He also posted the worst ratios of his young career, and while his 3.22 ERA and 1.16 WHIP were fine for typical reliever standards, they were not Clase-like. Hitters simply made more contact against him, which inflated his BABIP and saw his strikeout rate plummet to a career-worst 21.2%. Despite these blips, Clase should remain the Guardians closer for 2024 and is likely to be among the top 5 closers taken in drafts.

Simba famously told us in The Lion King he laughed in the face of danger, and Rutschman certainly did the same in the face of those wondering if there would be a sophomore slump for the young catcher. The 25 year old backstop was a key cog of the AL East champion Orioles lineup finishing as the eighth-most valuable fantasy catcher and the only catcher who could claim at least 20 homers, 80+ RBIs as well as 80+ runs on their resume. If not for the misconfiguration of left field in Camden, Rutschman would have joined Cal Raleigh as the only catcher with 30 homers but that monstrosity is where most pulled flyballs go to die. Rutschman has already earned a reputation for a very discernable eye at the plate as he walks nearly as often as he strike out which is a rarity for both his age and his position. Baltimore values the bat and gave him 46 games at DH so he provides plenty of volume with the added bonus of hitting first or second in the lineup. Simply put, the acquisition cost is worth it.

Perez's .254 average, .292 OBP and 23 home runs in 2023 came close to exactly matching his figures from a year prior, but the homer total is a concern given he played in 26 more games than 2022. The home run and RBI (80) totals are still among the best in MLB for catchers, but the downward trend is clear as he enters his age-34 campaign. With that in mind, it's not a surprise he saw more action than ever out from behind the plate, as he made 29 starts at DH and 23 at first base. Those latter numbers should only increase going forward, though he shouldn't have issues retaining positional eligibility anytime soon. Trade rumors have become more common of late, but the remaining two years and $44 million (including a $2 million buyout for a 2026 club option) on his contract limits potential suitors. Perez is no longer close to being the top catching option for fantasy managers, but his likely high volume should make him a strong producer in 2024, even if the downward trajectory continues.

Affectionately nicknamed "Big Dumper," Raleigh turned in his first career 30-homer season in 2023, finishing fifth at the catcher position in earned fantasy value behind William Contreras, J.T. Realmuto, Jonah Heim and Will Smith. Raleigh is rather one dimensional at the plate, though to his credit he raised his batting average from .211 to a more-palatable .232 last season. He's also drawn walks at roughly a 10 percent clip the last two seasons, helping offset a strikeout rate pushing 30 percent. Raleigh made 14 starts at designated hitter in 2023, and while that number could always take a hit, he projects to remain in the starting lineup most days. The 27-year-old has an exceptional arm behind the plate and at this point is an important part of the leadership and game-calling with the Seattle pitching staff. He temporarily silenced his doubters with his performance at the dish last season, but beware the average can largely offset the power contributions if it gets low enough.

O'Hoppe had an intriguing yet incomplete debut season with the Angels. He got off to a great start hitting .283 with 4 homers and 13 RBIs in the first few weeks of the season before a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder put him on the shelf until late August. He was a fantasy monster in the final month of the season with 9 homers, 16 runs, and 15 RBIs down the stretch from the catching position. So far, O'Hoppe has hit lefties (.293) much better than righties (.220) but the overall numbers in an abbreviated season are certainly enticing. O'Hoppe is in the lineup more for his offensive upside than his defensive abilities as he is a liability behind the plate in controlling the running game and is still learning to be a better pitch framer. The potential for a 25-30 homer season is in his bat, but the upside here certainly comes with risks of his defensive liabilities costing him at bats unless he DH's more now with Ohtani's departure.

Fry was called up for the first time in his career in May of 2023, slashing .238/.319./.416 across 113 plate appearances. Fry is a backup option at best with limited fantasy appeal, though he does show some pop at the dish with a .178 ISO and 36.6% Hard Hit Rate in his limited major league experience. The 28-year-old may find himself back in the minors in 2024 as Cleveland signed veteran Austin Hedges to backup Bo Naylor ahead of the new campaign making him an avoid for fantasy managers even in multi-catcher formats.

Despite serving as the No. 2 option in Houston behind Martin Maldonado, Diaz cracked 23 homers and finished as a top-12 fantasy catcher last season. Diaz slashed .282/.308/.538 and Statcast says he actually underperformed in regards to batting average and slugging -- his .287 xBA and .546 xSLG both ranked in the top eight percent of the league. Diaz is not particularly interested in taking walks (2.9 BB%) and his chase rate leaves open some questions about the sustainability of his contact. Further, Diaz's 21.9% HR/FB seems destined to fall, even with the boost provided by the Crawford Boxes. That being said, the Astros have already committed to Diaz being "the main guy" in 2024, and any giveback in the rate stats should in theory be softened by an increase in playing time. He wasn't a big name when he was traded in 2021, but fast forward a few years and Diaz is looking like a key piece on a championship-caliber ballclub.

Garver rebounded from an injury-riddled 2022 season with a productive campaign, posting a 138 wRC+, the third highest of his career. Garver played in 87 games, the most since 2019, but he missed just over one-third of the season after hurting his knee in early April. When healthy, Garver was the everyday designated hitter, mixing in 27 games behind the plate. Garver's success in the batter's box was fully supported by his underlying metrics, which bodes well for continuing to log playing time at designated hitter. Garver has never been known for his defensive prowess, so it's not a surprise the metrics were not kind to him in his limited time defensively. Even so, Garver regained catcher eligibility and at least for the upcoming season, he's borderline useful in single-catcher formats and a solid option in two catcher leagues. He will work as Cal Raleigh's backup and the Mariners' top option at designated hitter when healthy, after signing a two-year deal with Seattle this winter.

Any concern Heim would split catching duties with Mitch Garver were vanquished early with Garver missing most of April and all of May with a knee injury. During that time, Heim posted a .785 OPS, locking down the primary backstop position. For the season, Heim posted a career-high 103 wRC+ while continuing to excel behind the plate as a receiver and pitch framer. For the second straight year, Heim experienced a second half swoon, posting a .282/.338/.474 line before the break, compared to .217/.282/.656 after. However, Heim's average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were nearly identical in both halves, so he likely benefited from a fortuitous .313 BABIP over the first half and a snake bit .246 mark the rest of the way. Heim has shed the all-glove label, and catchers tend to develop more power as they get older. He'll be entering his 29-year-old season, so it may manifest, but the catcher inventory is such it isn't necessary to chase the potential upside.

Wells hasn't changed much as a prospect since the Yankees selected him at the back of the first round in 2020, and he enters the year atop the big-league depth chart after getting 75 plate appearances to close 2023. Per Baseball Savant's three-year rolling average, Yankee Stadium has been the second-best park for lefty power, and the lefty-hitting Wells already has at least 50-grade power, so 20 homers seems doable as a rookie if he gets the workload of a starting catcher. In his minor-league career, the only level where Wells hit better than .261 was High-A, and he had a walk rate of 11 percent or higher at every minor-league stop, so he is going to be more valuable in OBP leagues than batting average leagues. An unsustainably-high 13.8 Barrel% in his small MLB sample helped generate optimistic x stats (.275 xBA, .566 xSLG, .367 xwOBA), and while he won't approach those numbers over a full season, there are enough encouraging signs with Wells that he makes for a viable second catcher in two-catcher leagues. Wells is a mediocre defensive catcher, so the biggest risk in fantasy is that his defense costs him playing time and he only hits 10-15 home runs instead of 20-plus. The projection system Steamer has Jose Trevino and Ben Rortvedt being worth more wins above replacement than Wells on a per plate appearance basis due to their defense, but it still seems like Wells will be given every chance to be the guy given his draft pedigree and offensive upside.

After an injury-plagued 2022 season, Jeffers showed significant improvement by placing second among catchers in OPS and becoming the primary catcher for the Twins by season end. Jeffers had just a .648 OPS in 2022 and played just seven games after breaking his thumb in July 2022. He began the 2023 season as the backup catcher to Christian Vazquez, though the Twins split the workload behind the plate pretty evenly all year. However, Jeffers started behind the plate in every playoff game. Jeffers has good power with above-average exit velocity (5th among catchers) and Hard Hit % (11th among catchers). He draws walks at a good rate (9.9BB%) which helps somewhat offset a high strikeout rate (27.8% K%). He also improved dramatically against right-handed pitching (.828 OPS) after struggling against righties (career .695 OPS) while feasting on lefties (career .840 OPS). Jeffers was seen as a strong defender but declined in pitch framing last season and his other fielding metrics graded below average. That's a concern for increased playing time. The Twins like to utilize two catchers to reduce wear and tear, so Vazquez will likely split duties again, but Jeffers has more upside with the bat and his power.

Langeliers opened the season as the Athletics primary catcher. He gathered a taste of the majors down the stretch in 2022 but struggled making contact. In his first full season, Langeliers lowered his strikeout rate to a still elevated 29.2 percent while hitting the ball with more authority. However, as a fly ball hitter in the cavernous Coliseum, Langeliers' BABIP was well below average, but his 22 homers was fifth most among catcher-eligible hitters and his 63 RBI tied for 12th highest. Langeliers is still a work in progress behind the plate as his -13 defensive runs saved was the third worst in the league and he graded as one of the poorest pitch framers. Langeliers' 31 percent success rate catching base stealers was one of the best marks in the league. Langeliers will share catching duties with Tyler Soderstrom, with Langeliers likely to get the heavier workload. The volume will generate mixed league worthy counting stats, but Langeliers is a batting average liability.

The Guardians didn't hand the reins over to the younger Naylor until mid-June, but regardless he still racked up 2.4 fWAR as a 23-year-old rookie. An impressive athlete at the catcher position, Naylor made his presence felt both at the dish and behind it. He showed good power (11 homers, .232 ISO) and patience (13.0 BB%), finishing 24% better than league average by wRC+. Most enticing for rotisserie players: Naylor's speed. He went a perfect 5-for-5 on the basepaths, and while he's not a burner per se, he is a great runner relative to others at the position. That element of his game gives Naylor the chance to enter rarefied air in fantasy, if he gets the playing time. Cleveland brought Austin Hedges back to help with the workload, but Naylor's plus defense and hitting put him as the clear No. 1 on the depth chart entering 2024. He could surpass 400 plate appearances in a perfect world.

Fermin went back-and-forth between the majors and minors in April but was with the big club for good by early May when the Royals decided to no longer use MJ Melendez at catcher. The 28-year-old was quietly very productive, hitting .290/.324/.495 with nine home runs over 205 plate appearances from May-to-August before his season ended in early September with a fractured finger. Fermin is a late bloomer, but he had an .874 OPS with 20 homers in 105 games at the Triple-A level and his hard-hit rate (42.7 percent) and barrel rate (9.9 percent) in 2023 with the Royals were both above-average. His emergence led to Kansas City using Salvador Perez for a career-high 21 starts at first base in addition to 29 starts at designated hitter and it's possible they'll follow a similar setup in 2024. It could be enough for Fermin to carve out some deep-league value again.

It was Reese McGuire starting the first two games of the season at catcher for the Red Sox, but Wong quickly wrestled the job away from him and wound up easily pacing the club with 105 starts behind the plate. Wong had an above-average barrel rate in the 56th percentile and a max exit velocity in the 88th percentile, so he's capable of making hard contact. The 27-year-old is also a terrific athlete for a catcher, moonlighting some at second base while also stealing eight bases to go with a sprint speed in the 76th percentile. Wong's plate discipline (33.3 percent strikeout rate, 5.5 percent walk rate) is dreadful, though, and it's been that way dating back to the minors. Double digits in home runs and stolen bases are possible if he gets regular playing time in 2024, but Wong's xBA of .208, not his actual .235 average, is probably closer to what we should expect.

Expectations for Kirk were high as he was coming off a season where he improved offensively and defensively. His defense got even better, but Kirk's batting took a couple of steps back. He continued to fan at a low 10.7 percent clip, but Kirk's average exit velocity dropped three mph while his hard-hit rate fell seven points to a career low 38.3 percent, only 33rd percentile. Kirk's power, and especially run production plummeted. His struggles at the plate cost Kirk playing time as he was used as the designated hitter only 17 times, compared to 50 the prior campaign. He hit the ball harder for the final three months of the season, so there is optimism for a rebound, but he's still going to share catching duties with Danny Jansen. Kirk's excellent contact rate yields a solid floor, but the playing time upside anticipated heading into last season is on hold.

In the spring of 2022, Guerrero Jr. famously stated that 2021 was a trailer and now fans will see a movie. Like most sequels, the team and the player has failed to deliver on promises. Guerrero's 2021 nomadic season in friendly run environments helped him established career hights he has failed to come close to in each of the past two seasons. Management tweaked Rogers Centre before the 2023 season, but that did not prevent Guerrero's overall numbers from sliding for a second consecutive season as he and the rest of the club struggled to produce runs despite plenty of traffic on the bases throughout the season. If you treat 2021 as an outlier rather than a ceiling, 2024 Guerrero Jr. should not disappoint you given his skills provide a very high floor. Just remember that sequels are rarely better than the original and Vlady's 2021 season is a cult classic that should be appreciated rather than expected.

Naylor had a career season at the plate despite missing over a month with an oblique injury. The career year was fueled by a few things Naylor had never done, such as hitting .363 with runners in scoring position and hitting .299 against left-handed pitching. He also fully leaned into the roster trend of better contact as Naylor lowered his strikeout rate for a fourth consecutive full season. He also murdered fastballs hitting .352 (.317 xBA.) The amalgamation of those skills is what allowed him to drive in 90+ runs with fewer than 20 homers, something only Naylor, Abreu, Heim, and Bohm did in 2023 and something last done by Asdrubel Cabrera in 2019. In all, Naylor plated 22% of his baserunners, which was only bested by Heim, Mullins, and Seager last season. All of this is to say this big step forward needs to have that first 500+ plate appearance offseason to offset the regression which is likely coming to his run production.

It took Diaz until his age 31 season, but he finally got to the 20-homer plateau and threw in a league batting title as well in his career year. The homers were a bit front loaded as 12 of his 22 homers came in the first two months of the season before he hit just two over the entire of June and July before closing with 8 more down the stretch as he chased the batting title. He hit .300 or better in every month of the season as the most atypical leadoff hitter in the American League given his size. He leads off because (points to him) he gets on base. His worst monthly OBP split was .390 in June which is how someone built like a fire hydrant was able to score 95 runs. Diaz hit the 600 plate appearance mark for the first time but did have issues throughout the season in his lower back and legs. He is now only first base eligible but was also the sixth most valuable player at the position in 2023. Diaz will not repeat, but his stock has risen.

Casas struggled early, posting a miserable .184/.300/.342 line over his first 49 games. The club stuck with the youngster as they liked his approach, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate portended better outcomes. Sure enough, Casas went .307/.404/.570 the rest of the way, though his season ended prematurely in mid-September with right shoulder inflammation. Casas' average exit velocity dropped half a tick over the second half, but his hard-hit rate increased six points, fueling a BABIP increase from .229 to .362. Part of Casas' improvement was embracing the pitch clock by meticulously following the same routine for every pitch, and frequently using his timeout when he was behind in the count. Casas is below average defensively, but improved over the course of the season and has the work ethic to keep getting better. Casas will be hard-pressed to match last season's second half over a full season, but he has a solid chance to improve on the year as a whole.

Mountcastle was batting .227/.264/.431 when he was put on the IL in early June with vertigo. He had been in a bad slump in the weeks leading up to illness but it's unclear if they were related. After returning a month later, Mountcastle went on a roll, posting a .326/.407/.492 line the rest of the way. He missed some time in September with a shoulder injury but was able to return for the playoffs. Taken as a whole, it appears Mountcastle improved across the board compared to the previous season, but his batted ball metrics, and expected average and slug were nearly identical both seasons. To his credit, Mountcastle fanned at the lowest rate since his rookie year, which was the pandemic season. Mountcastle undershot his expected homers for the second straight season, which could be due to the renovations in Camden Yards, or a hint there is latent pop. Mountcastle's cost of acquisition should be reasonable, though there are durability concerns since he's never played more than 145 games. Even so, there is a draftable floor, with a chance 2021 is not Mountcastle's apex season.

Torkelson had an underwhelming rookie campaign in 2022 with just eight home runs and a .604 OPS in 110 games, but he found his footing during his sophomore season with 31 long balls, 94 RBI, 88 runs and a .233/.313/.446 slash line. The counting stats are impressive given the production came as a member of Detroit's poor offense, which ranked 27th with an 89 wRC+. His defense at first base still leaves plenty to be desired, and he could see more run at designated hitter going forward with Miguel Cabrera headed for retirement. Torkelson's strikeout rate worsened slightly to 25.0 percent, but he improved his walk rate a bit to 10.0 percent. The real progress came in hard contact, as he significantly improved his barrel rate and hard-hit rate (to 14.1 percent and 50.5 percent, respectively). A .252 xBA and .480 xSLG also indicate some unfortunate luck for Torkelson, so it wouldn't be surprising if he takes another step forward in 2024.

Our 2023 outlook for Lowe came together rather well in the end as the first baseman regressed to previous levels in the face of the new rules. Lowe remains one of the more disciplined hitters in the league who will patiently work a count while looking for his pitch while being more than willing to accept a walk in any given situation. Lowe's issues against lefties (.223) helped pull his batting average down in 2023, but given he hit .277 and .330 against lefties in the previous two seasons, it would not surprise us to see him recover in 2024 to add some more life to his average. Despite his size, Lowe has league-average speed but Texas has not put him in motion over the past two seasons after allowing him some opportunities in 2021. Lowe is in an enviable position of playing daily in a potent lineup and has the potential to drive in 100 and even score 100 if the guys around him stay healthy all season. 2022 may have been his ceiling, but maybe not.

Pasquantino's 2023 season came to an end on June 9th with a labrum injury to his non-throwing shoulder which required season-ending surgery. His final numbers were not up to the expectations fantasy managers had for him as they reached for him in drafts with him hitting .247/.324/.437 over 260 plate appearances yet the 9.6% walk rate and 11.9% strikeout rate were very impressive for a first baseman. It felt a bit James Loney-ish, but Pasquantino's career line of .272/.355/.444 over 558 plate appearances with 19 homers gives us a better look at what he could be for now. If his shoulder is fully recovered, Pasquantino profiles as a four category contributor for fantasy managers with batting average being the most likely area he could excel in a full season given the challenges of his home park and his lack of foot speed. His fantasy value needs that batting average surge as his run production numbers will lag behind many other options at first base.

The offseason departure of Jose Abreu allowed Vaughn to settle in as the White Sox's primary first baseman in 2023, and he delivered similar results at the plate with 21 homers, 80 RBI, 67 runs and a .258/.314/.429 slash line in 152 games. The production was similar to 2022 but resulted in a barely above-average 103 wRC+ since offense was up across MLB last season. The fact he maintained that solid level of production in a poor Chicago offense is encouraging, though it's also a bit disappointing he didn't take more of a step forward in year three. Now entering his age-26 season, Vaughn has established a decent floor but still has plenty of room for improvement, and he'll need to tap into that upside in order to be a real difference maker for fantasy managers.

The Rule 5 Draft is often an afterthought on the final day of the annual MLB Winter Meetings, but every few years a gem will emerge from the list of selections. Oakland plucked Noda away from the Dodgers in the 2022 edition of the event and he fully unseated Jesus Aguilar as the Athletics' primary first baseman by the fourth week of the 2023 regular season. Aguilar was cut loose at the end of May, with Noda continuing to take on increasing importance in the A's offense as the summer rolled along. He jumped into the leadoff spot just before suffering a fractured jaw during a pregame fielding mishap in mid-July and quickly reprised that tablesetting role when he returned from the IL four weeks later. Noda has his flaws, but he can approach 20 homers and gets on base at a steady enough clip to churn out a useful helping of runs scored.

The Orioles' 101-win season and American League East title was possible in large part due to their collection of young talent starting to blossom. However, they also got some surprise contributions from veterans and O'Hearn is included among that group. The 30-year-old didn't make Baltimore's Opening Day roster but was up for good by early May and was often manager Brandon Hyde's preferred choice at first base versus righties while also seeing some time in the outfield and at designated hitter. O'Hearn put up an impressive 51.5 percent hard-hit rate while also cutting his strikeout rate down to a respectable 22.3 percent. He had posted a lowly .633 OPS over his last four seasons with the Royals, so O'Hearn's track record is working against him. He's earned an initial shot versus righties this season, but the leash will be short.

Did anyone have Raley stealing more bases in 2023 than Ozzie Albies, Jeremy Pena, or Adolis Garcia? Yea, that really happened. Not bad for a player who was out of options coming into camp and was nearly cut at the end of camp. Raley refused to let that happen, as he continued to hit becoming a more nimble version of Ji-Man Choi for the Rays as someone who could come in and generate offense against righties (133 wRC+, 17 homers) and play both first base and a corner outfield position. Raley is built like a tight end and is yet deceptively quick which is why the club permitted him to attempt 17 steals last season. He does have voluminous swing and miss in his game but is also quite capable of barreling up mistakes to all fields. His role in 2024 should be more of the same but the swing and miss in his game opens the door to more volatility in his outcomes than other players. Set expectations around 375-400 plate appearances, which takes him off mixed league draft plans.

No team is more likely to rush a prospect to the majors than the Angels and no prospect in last year's draft class had a more impressive command of the strike zone than Schanuel, so in that sense it was a perfect match when they selected him with the 11th overall pick. He played in more games in the majors (29) than in the minors (22) after getting drafted while also missing short stints with minor ailments (illness, shoulder, knee). There's little doubt the Angels will give Schanuel everyday playing time going forward and his swing decisions and contact skill are advanced enough that he'll get on base at a high clip, especially compared to most rookies. The big philosophical question is whether or not he's a worthwhile investment in dynasty or redraft leagues when his projected power output is so minimal relative to other first basemen. He had a max exit velocity of 103.5 mph, a 2.2 Barrel% and a 49.4 percent groundball rate. Schanuel doesn't hit the ball hard enough or in the air with enough regularity to project for more than 15 home runs, even with everyday playing time. His appeal lessens further when considering how bad the Angels lineup might be over the next few years.

Rice put up cartoonish numbers across Single-A, High-A and Double-A as a 24-year-old catcher who probably isn't a good enough defender to catch regularly in the big leagues. He slashed .324/.434/.615 with 20 home runs and an 18.7 percent strikeout rate in 73 games, 48 of which came at Double-A, which was noteworthy enough for him to emerge as a legitimate prospect in dynasty leagues despite his age. He already started seeing time at first base last year, but the Yankees may give him another season to try to make enough progress to stick at catcher. It should be viewed as a long shot that he is catcher eligible in fantasy for more than a year or two. Rice's mammoth power and lack of strikeout issues thus far give him a chance to be an everyday designated hitter/first baseman during his mid-20s, although that opportunity may not come as a member of the Yankees.

Horwitz has been an accomplished hitter all throughout the Toronto system with a .303/.407/.464 triple-slash line in just over 1,700 plate appearances since 2019. He is the type of hitter that is both accepting of his walks as well as someone very willing to use his contact skills to put the ball in play having never struck out as many as 80 times in a season at a time where many minor leaguers are posting triple-digit strikeout totals. Horwitz's 2024 fantasy value is clouded in two ways. Primarily, he is only eligible at utility on draft day as he had six games at DH and five at first base last season. Secondarily, the Jays roster is rather loaded with talent and Horwitz's best path forward would be playing left field. If he were to get that job, he would still likely hit in the 9th spot of the lineup.

Altuve didn't make his season debut until mid-May after suffering a fractured right thumb during World Baseball Classic play. He also missed about three weeks of action around midseason with a strained oblique. In the 90 games he was healthy, Altuve was dynamite, posting an OPS over .900 for the second year in a row. He also did his usual thing in the postseason, putting up a .906 OPS with four home runs in 11 games. Altuve will turn 34 in May and he's not a bastion of health as he was earlier in his career, nor is he an elite base stealer anymore (although he's rebounded there the last two seasons). The all-around package remains excellent, though, and worthy of an early-round fantasy selection.

Semien needed a strong final four months to rebound from a slow start in his first season with the Rangers. He was much steadier in his second year and easily better overall with an .826 OPS in 2023 which was nearly 100 points higher than his 2022 mark. Semien's Statcast page was underwhelming as it always tends to be, but he's mastered the art of pulling flyballs down the line and just over the wall to the point that it's impossible to doubt that he simply has that skill. He also cut his strikeout rate in 2023 to 14.6 percent, allowing him to hit for a solid .276 average even with all the weakly- to moderately-struck flyballs mixed in. Finally, Semien continues to be the modern day Iron Man, leading the league in plate appearances for the third straight season. He's about as safe as an early-round pick gets.

Gimenez broke out in 2022 with a 142 wRC+ to earn a $106.5 million extension with Cleveland, though he was unable to replicate those results last season. The 25-year-old still provided strong counting stats with 15 homers, 30 steals, 76 runs and 62 RBI, but his OPS dipped over 120 points to .713 despite a rise in offense across the league. His BABIP dropped significantly to .289 that can likely be attributed to a reduced hard-hit rate, which cratered from 37.6 percent in 2022 to 27.0 percent. The second baseman remains an elite defender and had 23 DRS and 18 OAA, both of which rank second in MLB and make him a mainstay in the lineup through his slumps. Gimenez's speed and decent power production provide a strong fantasy floor with plenty of upside for a potential rebound in 2024.

It seems like India and the Reds may be headed for divorce, as Cincinnati has made it known that the second baseman is available via trade. India was critical of how the team assessed his injury over the summer; a setback in his recovery prompted a second MRI which showed a more significant tear of his plantar fascia. He believed he should have been shut down for a longer period of time initially. Just a few short years ago, India was NL Rookie of the Year and looked like an important part of the team's long-term future, but the organization has seen an influx of young talent at the major-league level. India hit 17 homers and stole 14 bases in just 119 games last season, though his batted-ball numbers and sprint speed leave something to be desired. If he's dealt to a more pitcher-friendly park, India's numbers could take a hit. If he stays put, he could get lost in the shuffle.

Oakland was eliminated from the postseason on the second day of the 2023 season, so it remains a mystery why they let Gelof stay in the minors as long as he did rather than try to push for a prospect promotion incentive pick. Gelof began the season with 12 homers, 20 steals, and a .304/.401/.529 line in Sacramento over 69 games before coming to Oakland and hitting 14 more homers with 14 steals and a .267/.337/.504 line in the same amount of games. All in all, Gelof finished with 26 homers, 100 runs, 76 RBI, and 34 steals in 138 games. All that from someone whose ADP was in the 700's last winter. Strikeouts have been an issue as he has rapidly ascended in the system since coming out of the University of Virginia which will limit the ceiling of his batting average, but he should volume plenty in the other categories as an everyday major leaguer in 2024. His market price year over year has improved more than any other hitter.

Westburg was one of a host of top young prospects to see action with the Orioles in 2023, receiving a promotion in late June. His playing time with the American League East champs was sporadic, as he wound up starting 53 of 86 games (62 percent). Westburg did start seven of the final 10 regular-season contests and all three games of the Orioles' ALDS loss to the Rangers, so his playing time was trending up late in the year and he should be in line for regular starts in 2024. The 25-year-old popped 27 homers in the minors in 2022 and 18 in 67 games with Triple-A Norfolk in 2023 before his promotion, but he managed just three long balls in 68 games with Baltimore while dealing with the cavernous left field at Camden Yards. Westburg's average exit velocity (90.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (44.5 percent) were good, and his sprint speed (88th percentile) was better. The plate discipline, though, needs work.

After getting traded from Atlanta to Boston this offseason for Chris Sale, Grissom should finally get to be an everyday second baseman in the big leagues. Grissom, 23, boasts a career .320/.407/.477 batting line in 1,474 minor-league plate appearances but was blocked at second base in Atlanta and not seen as a competent enough defensive shortstop to get regular work there. He is a career .287 hitter in the majors (.348 BABIP) and has five homers and five steals in 236 plate appearances. Grissom could push for a 15/15 season with excellent health, but the main selling point is the batting average floor - projection system Steamer has Grissom hitting .285 this year. He will be playing half his games in the second-best hitter's park, per Statcast's three-year rolling average. However, Fenway Park plays neutral for righty homers, as it's the second-best doubles park for righties due to the Green Monster. Grissom may lead off against lefties, but he could hit in the bottom third of the lineup against righties.

Holliday had one of the most impressive full-season debuts any teenage prospect has had in modern memory, and the scary thing is he may just be scratching the surface. He still has a babyface and room to add 20 pounds of muscle in the coming years, but that didn't stop him from logging a .323/.442/.499 slash line with 12 home runs, 24 steals, a 17.4 BB% and a 20.3 K% while being between two and seven years younger than the average player in the leagues he was in while climbing from Single-A to Triple-A as a 19-year-old. His exit velocities aren't as intense as the other hitters in the top five of prospect rankings, but the expectation is that he will hit the ball harder as his body matures. Holliday is a plus runner who hits left-handed, which is important given how his future home park plays (much better for lefty power than righty power). His defense is behind his offense, but it's really hard to nitpick that aspect of his game when most premier teenage shortstop prospects haven't played a game in the upper levels of the minors and he played 36 games at Double-A and 18 games at Triple-A. It's possible Holliday comes to camp 15 pounds stronger and looks ready on both sides of the ball in spring training and forces the issue. However, there's little incentive for Baltimore to expedite Holliday's ascent to the majors if they think he could benefit from a couple months at Triple-A.

Julien finished seventh in the AL rookie of the year voting as he looks like a potential star for the Twins. Julien offers a mix of exceptional plate discipline and power. He had a .381 OBP and drew walks at a near league-leading 15.7% clip. He also hit 16 home runs with a .195 ISO and was in the 86th percentile for Barrel Rate. His playing time was limited by platoon issues and his defense, however. He hit just .195 with a .447 OPS against left-handed pitching. He also struggled at times at second base (-3 defensive runs saved) and was blocked by Jorge Polanco (when healthy) which led him to be used frequently at DH and even 1B. The Twins should find a spot for him in the everyday lineup against right-handed pitching and should get more exposure to left-handed pitching as he develops.

Morel had a solid rookie campaign in 2022 with 16 homers and a .741 OPS in 113 games, but he spent the first month-plus of 2023 in the minors. He caught fire immediately upon being promoted by the Cubs and clubbed nine long balls with a 1.354 OPS while collecting hits in each of his first 13 contests. Morel finished the campaign with a .247/.313/.508 slash line, 26 home runs, 70 RBI and 62 runs despite playing in just 107 games. His strikeout rate improved but was still high at 31.0 percent, and his poor defense led to him seeing most of his time at designated hitter. He played six different positions, but second base was his only spot with more than five appearances besides the outfield, limiting his positional eligibility, and he remains without a clear home in the field. Morel made plenty of hard contact with a 50.0 percent hard-hit rate and 15.5 percent barrel, but the strikeouts make him a bit of a volatile fantasy option, especially since he's yet to put together a full season.

Moore was limited to just 67 games in 2023 in large part due to him missing the first two months of the season due to an oblique injury and scar tissue that developed from an offseason surgery. He once again saw most of his action against southpaws, and his .797 OPS against left-handed pitching easily trumped the .647 mark he posted against righties. He was also considerably better away from T-Mobile Park, as his OPS away from his home ballpark was .831 compared to .614 when playing in Seattle.He also didn't run nearly as much in 2023 with just seven steals on ten attempts, and his sprint speed has declined significantly over time; ranking in the the 58th percentile after being in the 83rd two years ago. The ability to play all over the field will give Moore a roster spot in 2024 for Seattle, but a player who looked like a fantasy sleeper doesn't carry redraft value to begin next year.

A 28th-round pick, Schneider wasn't really on the prospect or fantasy radar coming into the 2023 season. He earned a look with the Blue Jays in August, though, after posting a .969 OPS with 21 home runs over 87 contests with Triple-A Buffalo. The mustachioed infielder hit the ground running with the big club, homering in his first at-bat as part of an absurd 1.315 OPS with eight long balls in his first 25 major-league games. A 2-for-35 finish pulled his numbers down, but Schneider still had an OPS over 1.000 during his first taste of big-league action. A 17.8 percent barrel rate and 14.9 percent walk rate were very encouraging, but a 30.5 percent strikeout rate and 67.8 percent zone contact rate were not. Which numbers are closer to a real representation of what Schneider is? The answer probably lies somewhere in between, and Schneider isn't guaranteed regular playing time as things currently stand.

There were a lot of mishaps and moving parts last year in Anaheim, through which Rengifo often served as a source of a calm with his ability to play just about anywhere defensively. Not only did he provide needed versatility, he also registered a career-high .783 OPS (111 OPS+) across 445 plate appearances and ranked third among all Angels hitters in WAR, behind only Shohei Ohtani and Brandon Drury. Rengifo doesn't have standout power or standout speed, so his mixed-league fantasy value is somewhat capped, but he should play almost every day and get regular top-of-the-lineup opportunities as the organization enters a new era following Ohtani's departure in free agency. At the very least, Rengifo projects to be a reliable source of runs scored in his age-27 season.

Lowe's 2021 season happened, but boy howdy does it look like quite the outlier against his other seasons. That season, Lowe showed what he is capable of when his body can remain healthy, something it has not done since that season. 2022 was derailed by troubles in his back, and those resurfaced in 2023, albeit in a different form. Those struggled led to him hitting .209/.307/.401 in the first half of the season with 9 homers and 31 RBIs before the rest at the break was just was the doctor ordered. Lowe went on to hit .253/.348/.484 in the second half with 12 homers and 37 RBIs before a foul ball fractured his knee cap and ended his season. Beyond his health limitations, Lowe still struggles to hit lefties (1 HR, .170) and continues to strike out below the league average rate. He has the ability to hit 30 homers, but given we have seen just one full season from him as he enters his age 29 season, this is not a player you should be reaching for in drafts.

Hamilton graduated to Triple-A Worcester to start 2023 then got his first taste of MLB, as the Red Sox dealt with injuries and poor production from their middle infield. The speedy Hamilton, who swiped 57 bases for the WooSox in 2023, had two steals and batted .121 in 15 games for Boston. The Red Sox entered the offseason with a glaring need at second base, which put Hamilton's name in the mix, but the acquisition of Vaughn Grissom from Atlanta in the Chris Sale trade should put an end to the notion of Hamilton breaking camp with a full-time gig. Someone with Hamilton's profile - his plus-plus speed is his best asset - needs to get on base with regularity. He draws walks at a decent clip but there's a lot of swing-and-miss, too. All signs point to Hamilton opening the year at Triple-A and on the Mass Pike shuttle between Worcester and Boston.

In a time of statistical volatility, it sure is nice to be able to count on the volume Ramirez produces despite the lack of supporting talent around him. Ramirez and Mike Trout lead all active players with five 20-20 seasons as Ramirez has achieved those marks in each of the past five full seasons while both accepting his walks and eschewing striking out. His 2022 and 2023 seasons by batting average and OBP were practically identical, but there was a significant dropoff in RBI as the lineup around Ramirez struggled to get runners into scoring position. Cleveland did not help that cause by focusing on slappy contact hitters and trading away Nolan Jones, but we digress. The 100-RBI plateau may be tough for Ramirez to get to once again if the lineup around him is not improved, but the volume is money in the bank as the hamate bone injury of 2019 is the only injury he has incurred in recent years.

Terence Mann told us in Field of Dreams that the one constant through all the years is baseball. He was wrong; the one constant is Devers continues to rake in Boston whether they are in a boom year contending for a title or a bust year beginning another refresh cycle as the club was in 2023. Devers finished just inside the top 30 overall fantasy players in 2023 despite the lineup issues around him with the early injury to Duvall and the ups and downs of the the youngsters Casas and Duran. Devers continued his Saberhagenmetric cycle of 30 homer & 100+ RBI seasons in odd-numbered seasons but may have fallen into the trap of the new shifting rules. Devers had his highest pull percentage in five seasons and hit for his lowest full-season batting average since 2018. His StatCast measures are still extremely red, in a good way, nearly across the board as he enters the prime years for power hitters.

Chisholm Jr. first got us excited for his fantasy future after a solid rookie campaign, but his follow-up efforts have been marred with injury. 2023 saw him miss time with turf toe, an oblique strain, and a hamstring strain. The turf toe required offseason surgery to fix, but the demands of the centerfield position are not likely to reduce Chisholm Jr's. injury risk any time soon. The injury risk also comes along with a batting average risk as Chisholm Jr. continues to take an aggressive approach at the plate, but around all that risk is an above average offensive player with surprising pop and speed to burn when his lower half is healthy. His dual eligibility is gone for now, but the upside risk/reward upside remains as he is quite capable of a 30-30 season if his body holds up to the demands of his position. Every season, there are a handful of players who are early market values; this will be one of those players.

Despite a strong spring training, Garcia opened the season with Triple-A Omaha. After posting a weak .242/.348/.347 line with the Storm Chasers, Garcia was summoned to the majors where he stayed the rest of the season. His game is hitting the ball hard on the ground with an 87th percentile average exit velocity and 6.1 degree launch angle. He mustered a low 84 wRC+, but Garcia swiped 23 bases. There is always the chance Garcia learns to loft the ball more, but as is he offers a solid batting average floor, with some speed. He batted leadoff in 72 of 123 games but is better suited for a spot lower in the order. He's miscast at third base, but with Bobby Witt Jr. at shortstop, and no in-house challenger, Garcia is ticketed for another season at the hot corner. These aren't the ideal traits for a fantasy corner infielder, but Garcia can be useful in the right lineup construction, especially if he continues to hit at or near the top of the order.

It took awhile amid a streak of injuries, but Lewis finally became a regular in the Minnesota lineup and showed he's a budding superstar. Lewis didn't play in his first major league game until May 29 due his rehab from a second torn right ACL in consecutive seasons. He immediately provided a jolt to the offense by hitting .326 with four homers and an .827 OPS in 26 games before being shelved by another injury. He missed six weeks due to an oblique injury but returned to hit .295 with 11 home runs and a .992 OPS in 32 games. He suffered his third serious injury in late September, a strained left hamstring, but was able to return for the playoffs where he hit four home runs with a 1.119 OPS in six games. When in the lineup, Lewis showed outstanding power as his max exit velocity was 55th overall and his barrels per plate appearances were 51st among hitters with his comparable playing time. He also hit four grand slams - the first player in MLB history with five slams among his first 16 career homers. He also has good plate discipline (8.6 BB/9 and just 23.0 K) which could make batting average an asset. Lewis is also fast on the basepaths, but his injury concerns could limit his stolen base attempts. He looks set to be Minnesota's everyday third baseman as the Twins have said he won't play in the outfield given his knee issues and Carlos Correa is entrenched at shortstop. Whether he'll be a premium defender at the hot corner remains to be seen, but staying healthy appears to be the only concern as he looks set to be a cornerstone of the Minnesota lineup.

The Rays are known for slow-playing prospects, but not many hitters reach Double-A at 19 and proceed to hit 20 homers with a .309 average and a 17.1 K% over 81 games, but that's exactly what Caminero did. Tampa Bay rewarded the young slugger's exploits, jumping him over Triple-A for his big-league debut shortly after his 20th birthday and late enough in the season for him to enter this year rookie-eligible and therefore Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick eligible. Caminero only had 26 batted-ball events but still managed a 112-mph max exit velocity, although his minor-league hard-hit data was already superlative, so that didn't shed new light. He hits missiles to all fields and can handle high-end velocity and spin. There's nothing to quibble with offensively, especially when projecting a couple years into the future, aside from the fact he probably won't contribute on the bases. Caminero enters the year eligible at third base (three games), but he also saw brief time at shortstop (two games) and second base (one game). It's always pretty crowded in Tampa Bay, but considering Taylor Walls, Osleivis Basabe and Jonathan Aranda all saw plenty of playing time down the stretch, there should be room for Caminero to carve out an everyday role.

Jung had a solid rookie season for the world champs wrapped around a six week stint on the injured list with a thumb injury. The young (must...resist...pun) man held his own at the hot corner and enjoyed his spot in the deep Texas lineup to leverage a fair amount of run production despite the missed time due to his injury. The thumb injury truly defined his season as he hit .280 with 19 homers before the injury and just .229 with 4 homers upon his return in late August. His strikeout rate is currently his biggest concern as it was both high overall and both before and after his injury. Jung has struk out nearly 30% of the time with few walks in over 700 plate appearances between AAA and the majors which limits his batting average ceiling and his low OBP hurts his changes for hitting higher in the lineup. This offensive profile feels a lot like a young Nick Castellanos, and while Jung is in a better ballpark, Castellanos's early numbers are a good benchmark for Jung in 2024.

In 2023, Smith reprised the utility role he held the previous season, settling in at third base, shortstop and the never-quite-settled left field spot at various times. The infield positions are locked in by Corey Seager and Josh Jung, while left field now belongs to Evan Carter. Designated hitter is open, but Smith's competent minor-league bat has yet to translate over 485 plate appearances in the show (.191 average, .592 OPS). The lefty batter didn't indicate much against any pitch type (.191 against fastballs, .176 against curve/breaking balls) or as a potential platoon mate (.623 OPS against right-handers). There isn't a path to regular at-bats for Smith, whose value lies in position versatility.

Toro was dealt to Milwaukee last winter but played in just nine big-league games during 2023, though he took advantage of those opportunities by going 8-for-18 with two homers. The 28-year-old was then traded to the A's in November, which provides an immediate boost to his outlook for playing time in 2024. Toro also had a strong campaign at the Triple-A level last year with a .291/.374/.471 slash line and 10 home runs in 96 games. He has a .636 OPS in 271 big-league games during his career and isn't guaranteed playing time in Oakland, so a wait-and-see approach is likely appropriate rather than risking draft capital outside of a late-round dart throw.

It would be fair at this point to call the Angels' 2019 signing of Rendon to a seven-year deal a disaster, as the once-feared slugger has spent more time on the injured list than on the field over his four seasons so far with the club. Over the past three campaigns, Rendon has played in a total of 148 games -- approximately the equivalent of one season -- and posted a modest .701 OPS with 13 homers and 80 RBI. The All-Star hasn't lost his elite eye at the plate, and last year he walked nearly as many times as he struck out (25:27 BB:K), but that isn't going to carry him far in fantasy circles given the diminished power and inability to stay healthy. Shohei Ohtani's departure to the Dodgers opens the door for Rendon to log substantial time at DH next season, giving him a better chance of avoiding more time on the injured list. Still, counting on a bounce-back from a player who will turn 34 in June and who has been a shell of his former self for three years doesn't seem like the wisest investment.

Urias popped 16 home runs and won a Gold Glove as a semi-regular for the Orioles in 2022. He was used in a similar role for the American League East champs in 2023, but Urias' home run output was quartered and his defensive metrics also took a major hit. Where that leaves the 29-year-old heading into 2024 is uncertain, as Urias has seemingly already been passed up by some younger, more talented infielders and the organization also has more on the precipice. At his best, Urias has been an above-average hitter with an above-average glove. His fantasy appeal looks pretty limited, though, as he doesn't stand out anywhere and is facing uncertainty about his role.

Duran emerged as a force for the Rangers and for fantasy managers in the first three months last season, slashing a robust .320/.361/.557 with 12 home runs over 233 plate appearances. The 24-year-old's over-aggressiveness eventually caught up to him, though, as he bottomed out from July on with a .225/.283/.310 line and just two homers in 59 contests. Duran's last start of the regular season came on Sept. 15 and he didn't play in the playoffs during the Rangers' run to the World Series. The poor finish puts Duran's future playing time in a precarious spot, although working in his favor is his ability to play all over the field. Duran has some loud tools, as his 96th percentile max exit velocity and 91st percentile sprint speed can attest. He's been a free swinger since his minor-league days, though, so it's fair to question whether he'll ever make enough contact for those tools to shine through.

LeMahieu batted .327 and then .364 during his first two seasons as a Yankee, but he's dropped off considerably in the three campaigns since. Last season, the veteran posted the lowest batting average (.243) and highest strikeout rate (22.2 percent) of his career. It could be that the foot injury that derailed the second half of his 2022 campaign continued to bother LeMahieu into 2023, but there's also the distinct possibility that the 35-year-old is simply losing ground to Father Time. Despite the recent falloff, there are a few reasons to believe LeMahieu could rebound to an extent next season: he still has near-elite bat-to-ball skills, and he experienced a mini-resurgence between the All-Star break and the end of August last year, posting an .879 OPS over 37 games before falling off again during the final month of the season. It's unlikely that he'll return to the form that netted him two batting titles, and he's a below-average contributor in power and speed, so fantasy managers shouldn't look to LeMahieu before the very late rounds of drafts. Still, opportunity should be there, either as New York's starting third baseman or as a utility man in a near-everyday role.

It's too bad Hernaiz's context isn't better, because he's an underrated talent. His lack of impact speed, terrible home park and sub-standard teammates cap his ceiling, but he's a strong draft-and-hold target or AL-only bench option due to his floor and path to playing time. Hernaiz only hit nine home runs last year while stealing 13 bases, but he hit .321 with a 13.4 K%, 105.4 mph 90th percentile EV and a 112 mph maxEV (very good data for a 22-year-old shortstop). It wouldn't be surprising to see him hit .275 with 10 homers and 15 steals if he were in the big-league lineup for 135 games or so. The depth chart is wide open, with Nick Allen and Aledmys Diaz the only other shortstops on the roster.

Vargas was a trendy pick in 2023 fantasy drafts as news emerged that he would be the Dodgers' Opening Day second baseman, but by mid-July he was back in the minors, where he remained for the remainder of the campaign. The heralded prospect struggled to a .195/.305/.367 slash line over 81 games, and the demotion came after he batted a paltry .079 (5-for-63) over his final 23 contests. Despite the disappointing stat line, there are reasons to believe that Vargas can succeed at the MLB level. He demonstrated refined plate discipline while up with the big club, posting a hearty 12.5 percent walk rate and a respectable 20.1 percent strikeout rate along with a borderline-elite 20.8 percent chase rate, per Statcast. Vargas didn't hit the ball hard consistently, but it's promising that of his 50 big-league hits last year, over half went for extra bases. Importantly, Vargas didn't sulk after being sent down, instead extending his run of minor-league success with an .886 OPS and 10 homers over 60 Triple-A contests. Los Angeles filled the void at second base following Vargas' demotion primarily by transitioning Mookie Betts from right field, and the experiment went smoothly enough that Betts will likely see considerable time at the keystone again in 2024. While that could limit Vargas' opportunities at the position, it may also mean that he gets reps in the corner outfield, where he logged some time down the stretch in the minors last season. It's unlikely that he'll be handed the keys to a starting spot out the gate as he was last year, but the Dodgers clearly still see Vargas as a part of their future, and he could earn a substantial role with a strong spring.

In 2022, Witt missed the memo that rookies were supposed to struggle. In 2023, he missed the long-held belief that sophomores slump as pitchers begin to find weaknesses in younger players to exploit them. The young man was the only other player in baseball besides Ronald Acuna to post at least 30 homers and 40 steals in 2023 and finished tied with Corbin Carroll as the sixth most valuable player in standard league formats. Witt contributed to all five categories while excelling in four of them in 2023. The only area that could stand to improve is his acceptance of walks, as he appears to like them as much as his old man hated to dish them out on the mound. If Witt could boost his OBP over .350, he could lead the league in stolen bases in 2024. As you set your draft preferences for 2024, understand Witt may not even be there if you pick as high as third.

We should always be impressed when 22 year olds hold their own at the major league level considering most players that age are still taking a bus to a small to mid-sized town near you. It is even more impressive when said players do something few others do early in their careers. Henderson was one of five corner infielders with 25 homers, 80 runs and RBIs along with 10 steals joining Walker, Freeman, Bellinger, and Goldschmidt while being five years younger than anyone else in that group. Henderson has been everything as advertised so far at the plate and in the field qualifying at both positions on the left side of the infield. The only fantasy flaw in his current profile is he has been just above average in batting average as his plate discipline is still morphing into what it could be while he continues attempting to figure out lefties who have limited him to a .199 average. Those are flaws you can live with for now while enjoying his continued overall growth

Bichette has been a model of consistency since debuting for the Blue Jays in 2019, and his .306/.339/.475 slash line in 2023 closely resembles his career line. His counting stats (20 homers, 73 RBI and five steals) took a bit of a hit as he spent time on the injured list with knee and quadriceps issues during the second half, though he still played in 135 games overall. Bichette's barrel rate remained stable at 9.6 percent, though he boosted his line-drive rate seven points to 27.4 percent to help maintain a .355 BABIP, which should be sustainable since it's only slightly higher than his career average. He recorded 38 steals over the 2021-22 campaigns, so it's surprising he stayed in single digits in 2023 given the rule changes that boosted totals league-wide. The two leg injuries likely played a role in the production drop, but he still had just three steals in 90 games heading into the All-Star break. Regardless of the stolen base total, Bichette has established a strong fantasy floor with a high average and reliable run production heading into his age-26 campaign.

Neto began the season with Double-A Rocket City but was soon promoted to the majors. After a slow start, he raised his OPS to .769 but was placed on the IL in mid-June with a left oblique strain. Neto returned after the All-Star break, posting a .566 OPS over the next three weeks. Neto revisited the IL, this time with back stiffness. He came back in early September but continued to struggle with a .547 OPS over the last 17 games of the season. Neto possesses below average power with enough speed to generate double-digit stolen bases; his primary asset is getting on base. In part because he hit more fly balls than he did in the minors, Neto's .272 BABIP was low. The expectation is for it to increase as Neto gets more acclimated to major league pitching. Even so, Neto has limited mixed league appeal, though he could be more useful if his on-base skills warrant one of the top-two spots in the Angels lineup.

Mr. October 2.0 had a monster 2023 season after a somewhat disappointing debut with Texas in 2022. Many expected Seager to benefit from the reduction of overshifting, but nobody saw a 82-point surge and a career-best batting average coming from him. The shift does not get all the credit as Seager previously hit over .300 in two other full seasons, but the shift certainly helped him a bit. Seager along with Luis Arraez were the only two qualified players in baseball with OBP's over .390 despite 50 or fewer walks last year, and he would have easily had 100+ runs as well as RBIs had he not missed time with both a hamstring as well as a thumb injury. He returned from that thumb injury in early August, homered in his first at bat, and went on to hit 17 more regular season homers as a warm up for what he did in October to help Texas win the pennant. Two benchmarks for Seager in 2024: 40 homer and 100 RBIs - two things he has never accomplished in his excellent career to date.

Seen as a long shot to break camp entering spring training, Volpe won the starting job at shortstop for the Yankees with his performance in the Grapefruit League and went on total 601 plate appearances as a rookie. At age 21/22, he hit 21 homers and stole 24 bases, but his batting line settled at just .209/.283/.383. He totaled a meager 122 runs-plus-RBI while stuck primarily in the bottom third of the batting order, though he made 28 starts out of the leadoff spot. Volpe makes for an interesting case study entering 2024 because everything under the hood looks bad, but further development should be expected for the former top prospect. It's possible his crash course last season accelerates that development and Volpe quickly becomes the star player some evaluators expected, but right now he's looking like a playing-time-dependent accumulator. The Yankees stuck by him all year despite some low lows, and a long leash should be expected again in 2024.

Pena fanned less and walked more than he did in his rookie season. Pena's average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were essentially the same. However, he flattened his swing, resulting in more grounders and a three mph drop in flyball average exit velocity, cutting his HR/FB mark in half. The change helped boost his BABIP by 25 points, but Pena's power was crushed as he left the yard only 10 times, 12 fewer times than his first season, despite 76 more plate appearances. He stole two more bases, but he profiled as someone who would take advantage of the new rules. It was sage to expect Pena to fall short of his freshman season, but the way he did it was curious, morphing into an extreme groundball hitter. From a fantasy perspective, Pena's transition is better for batting average, but he doesn't steal ample bases to be a top tier shortstop unless he reverts to hitting more flyballs. Pena is why tracking stats when drafting is precarious. He's likely going to be a fantasy asset, but the distribution of his stats has a wide range of possibilities.

Correa's second season with the Twins was a disappointment as he hit just .230 with a .711 OPS. He played most of the season with plantar fasciitis in his left foot which may have limited him at the plate. It hurt his speed and was a factor in his leading the league in grounding into double plays (30). His main struggles were against fastballs, where he was below average (-5 Run Value per Baseball Savant) for the first time in his career, so his decline may not have all been due to health. However, his power metrics were still above average (71st percentile in Avg. Exit Velocity and 75th in Hard-Hit Rate). Correa was still a plus defender despite the foot issues in part due to his riffle arm as he was a finalist for the AL Gold Glove. He also thrived in the postseason again, hitting .409 with three doubles in six games. His return to postseason form happened after his only IL stint for his foot issues, giving hope that the rest caused him to be renewed at the plate and a similar pattern can happen for 2024. He's set at the Twins shortstop for the foreseeable future thanks to a six-year, $200 million contract. While there are long-term concerns about his ankle (a plate inserted in his ankle from a 2014 injury scared of teams signing him last winter), a return to health could lead to a bounceback season.

The Mariners acquired Caballero from the Diamondbacks for Mike Leake in the summer of 2019, and he wasn't considered a top prospect coming into the 2023 season. He earned an early shot with Seattle, and while there were just as many ups as there were downs, he was able to remain a key cog on the bench for the majority of the year. He was much more effective against southpaws than he was right-handed pitching; finishing with an OPS of .758 against left-handed pitching compared to a .588 mark against righties. He showed virtually no power against hurlers from either side, however, and his on-base percentage was strongly boosted by being hit 17 times in 280 plate appearances. Even if Caballero is able to cement a spot in the Seattle lineup next summer, it's hard to imagine him helping fantasy rosters outside of the steals category in 2024.

Baez's time in Detroit has mostly been a disaster so far. The shortstop signed a six-year, $140 million contract with the Tigers before the 2022 season and has proceeded to struggle each of the last two years. After posting a .671 OPS in 2022, he bottomed out with a .592 OPS last year, which was his worst outside of the .551 OPS he posted as a 21-year-old rookie in 2014. By comparison, Baez averaged a .783 OPS across eight seasons before coming over to Detroit. Not surprisingly, his counting stats were down in 2023 as well, as he recorded only nine home runs and 59 RBI across 136 games. Baez lowered his strikeout rate a little bit, from 24.9% to 22.9%, though he continued to rarely take walks and mostly made weak contact on his swings. Now entering his age-31 season, Baez clearly looks like a player on the decline. Some fantasy managers will likely roll the dice given his past performance, though there is nothing in his recent profile to suggest a turnaround is coming anytime soon.

Crawford enjoyed a wonderful breakout season offensively after years of fantasy managers waiting for the production to catch up with the potential with him. Crawford parlayed his excellent OBP skills into scoring 94 runs thanks to a career high walk rate which helped him get on base 38% of the time. Crawford's batting average splits were nil but 16 of his 19 homers came against righties and he was a monster in the second half trying to personally will Seattle into returning to the postseason with 11 homers, 47 runs, and a .282/.401/.492 line during that time. Crawford opened the season hitting 9th but quickly moved to the leadoff and remained there most of the season. That role should continue for him as he has the best OBP chops on the roster. Crawford is one of 23 players with at least 600 plate appearances in each of the past three seasons and just one of five shortstops to do so. He was a bargain in 2023 drafts, but his price has risen significantly this draft season.

The Guardians are one of the cheapest teams in the league, so while Rocchio doesn't project to perform like an everyday-caliber player in 2024, he may still get those opportunities. The switch-hitting shortstop has been a quality prospect dating back to an impressive pro debut as a teenager in 2018, but despite posting ISO's over .160 and slugging percentages over .425 across High-A and Double-A in 2021 and 2022, his power output has declined steeply since reaching Triple-A and the majors. It's possible he was able to get himself into more hitter's counts that allowed him to swing for the fences more against High-A and Double-A pitching and that has not carried over against pitchers with better control. Aside from limited raw power, Rocchio has a lot going for him. He is an excellent defensive infielder who had an 11.2 percent walk rate and 12.3 percent strikeout rate with 25 steals in 116 games at Triple-A. Barring an offseason acquisition of a more seasoned big-league shortstop, Rocchio could be Cleveland's starter at the position while likely hitting in the bottom third of the lineup.

Shewmake caught some attention during 2023 Spring Training as he was in competition for the Atlanta's starting shortstop job ultimately won and held onto all season by Orlando Arcia. The result of the season was a disappointing .234/.298/.407 line in 526 Triple-A plate appearances leading to a trade to the White Sox in November. Shewmake's struggles in 2023 coupled with the White Sox making multiple additions across the infield may see him return to Triple-A at least to start 2024. Known for his glove more so than his bat, the former first-round pick could eventually factor into a utility role.

Story began the season on the IL after undergoing internal bracing surgery on his right elbow, a procedure which has a shorter recovery time than Tommy John surgery but is just as effective in some instances. Story didn't make his 2023 debut until the first week in August where he took over at shortstop after playing second base the previous season. He struggled mightily at the plate, fanning at a 32.7 percent clip, his highest since 2017. Story also posted the lowest walk rate of his career, along with his lowest average exit velocity ever, and the lowest hard-hit rate since 2017. Story stole 10 bases in 13 tries over 43 games, plus he played excellent defense. He's slated to be the Red Sox opening day shortstop, but he's a fantasy enigma. Given, it's been two injury-riddled seasons, but Story's decline from his Rockies days is more than just park factors. He'll be an asset in steals, but beyond that it's a crapshoot. He clearly won't return to his salad days with Colorado, but there is a solid chance Story posts his best season since signing with Boston.

We are going to say it: Tucker was robbed in 2023. Since Khris Davis left the league, we have lacked a statistically consistent player and Tucker looked to have filled that need with what should have been his 30th homer on the final day of the season. That is, until the official scorer turned it into a triple with an error. That scurrilous decision robbed Tucker of a third consecutive 30 homer season and his first ever 30-30 season. All joking aside, Tucker had a monster fantasy season accepting his walks, rarely striking out, and stepping up as a run producer in the third spot of the lineup while Yordan Alvarez missed time. We have longed to have Tucker hitting in the upper third of the lineup and he did not disappoint with 47 RBIs in 56 games from that spot. Whereas Dusty Baker was reticent to make changes, Joe Espada may change things up to have Tucker hit second and have Bregman in between the lefty at bats. If that happens, Tucker is worth a top five overall pick.

Despite missing 56 games due to hip and toe injuries, Judge cracked 37 homers in 2023, finishing fourth in the American League. The stars aligned in his historic 2022 MVP season and nobody should expect that level of production again, particularly in the stolen-base department (his SB total fell from 16 to just three last season). That being said, Judge is arguably the most prolific power hitter in baseball, and he chased pitches outside the strike zone less than ever last season (career-low 22.5 O-Swing%). He returned to hit .245/.408/.557 with 18 homers and 53 walks in his final 57 games, and manager Aaron Boone said in August that Judge would not need offseason surgery on his right big toe. There is no questioning his hitting ability, though it's fair to question whether the hulking outfielder/DH can hold up to the rigors of a full MLB season as he approaches age 32. Judge has reached 150 games played only twice in his career.

Rodriguez followed up his excellent rookie season with an even more productive sophomore season, excelling in all five scoring categories on his way to finishing as the eighth-most valuable fantasy player in standard formats in 2023. Rodriguez was the only player in the American League to hit at least 30 homers, score and drive in over 100, while also stealing more than 30 bags while Ronald Acuna bested him in every category overall. That said, the youngster is still prone to slumps. He hit below .250 in three of the six months and just three of his homers and 21 of his RBI came in high-leverage situations. A monster second half got him to his final numbers, and he really caught his stride once he was left in the second spot of the lineup behind J.P. Crawford's on-base percentage. You should expect more of the same from Rodriguez in 2024 with fewer slumps in between bursts of awesomeness as he continues to mature as a hitter.

If Alvarez had a 100% health rating, you could make the case for him being the first hitter taken after Acuna Jr. When Alvarez is not playing through an injury or missing time with an injury, he is a run producing monster. Alvarez was limited to 114 games due to hand, arm, and an oblique injury yet still managed to finish in the top 25 for home runs and RBI despite the missed time. Alvarez is doing now what David Ortiz was doing at the end of his career numbers wise, but doing so in 80% of the plate appearances. If Alvarez could ever get a full season, 2005-2007 Ortiz numbers are at the edge of possibilities for him because he is that good of a hitter. He takes his walks and he does not strike out at the rate other hulks like him do while also handling lefties well. Simply put, this is a fantasy foundational player who is a perennial MVP candidate and worth the risk to reach because the numbers he could put up in a 600 plate appearance season will win leagues.

In large part due to working with Dustin Pedroia in the spring, Duran displayed a positive change in attitude, not to mention a reworked swing. Even so, Duran opened the season with Triple-A Worcester before being called up in early April to add outfield depth following the wrist injury to Adam Duvall. Duran turned out to be more than depth as he became the regular center fielder, demonstrating much more hustle. Unfortunately, Duran was limited to only 102 games as he missed almost a quarter of the season after season-ending surgery on his left big toe. The league had begun to adjust, so the lost time makes it harder to evaluate the extent of Duran's break out. Through July 23, he batted .317/.367/.514, but afterwards, he posted a .219/.269/.370 line. Duran is expected to be ready for spring training and should be a regular in the outfield. There is no doubting his stolen base prowess, but his power and ability to get on base are unclear. He'll probably land closer to the early version, but don't expect a repeat of his pre-All-Star break production.

The back of Carter's baseball card looks pristine and he shined on a big postseason stage, but there is one glaring weakness to acknowledge: his inability to hit lefties. He should be a fantastic option near the top of the lineup against righties and has the speed to steal 20-plus bases. Carter's hard-hit data is middling, especially for a top prospect who is big-league ready. However, he is a master at getting the barrel to the ball and taking opposite-handed pitchers out to the pull side. Carter's 13.4 O-Swing% was incredibly low, especially for a rookie hitter who also slugged .645 in 75 MLB plate appearances. For now, he is a premium platoon prospect. He went hitless with one walk and six strikeouts in 11 plate appearances against big-league lefties and notched one extra-base hit (a double) while striking out 28 times in 106 plate appearances against southpaws at Double-A and Triple-A. The Rangers are loaded, so Carter may platoon, but he could still go 15/20 with a high OBP and won't turn 22 until August.

Garcia was likely a title maker for many fantasy managers coming off a season where he set career bests in three categories by maximizing power and being more accepting of his walks. Naturally, the power growth fueled a second consecutive 100 RBI season and the increased time on base allowed him to score 20 more runs than he did in 2022, and the steals went..down? Garcia was 81% successful in his 31 attempts in 2022, but only attempted 10 steals (9 successfully) last season. Some of that comes down to a declining sprint speed which went from the 90's to the 40's in a hurry but there was also more traffic on the bases in Texas than we had previously been. Garcia should be expected to volume his way to another valuable fantasy season in at least three categories while missing minimal time. The strikeout rate it is what it is, but Garcia is clearly able to remain productive with a very supportive team context. He's not Khris Davis consistent in batting average, but he is close.

Arozarena's third consecutive 20-20 season may look like more of the same, but there is more under the hood here. While his .254 batting average was the worst of his career and a continued decline in average, he was more accepting of walks than he has ever been in his career and used the OBP resurgence to set a new career high in runs scored. He improved his chase rate on the season, and it would have been even better if not for a massive slump in July as he prepared and then participated in the home run derby which saw him hit .153 with his lowest monthly walk rate of the season. 16 of his 23 homers came before the break and his .279 first half average against his .220 second half average show just how much that slump hurt his overall numbers. Arozarena has seen his fantasy futures rise from risky single-digit round pick to a safe first five round selection in a short time, but this is likely his fantasy peak.

Another year, another season marred by injury for the three-time American League MVP. Trout managed to stay healthy for most of the first half before he suffered a fractured wrist in early July, and he'd appear in just one contest the rest of the way. He ended up playing in only 82 games, while his .263/.367/.490 slash line is the worst of his career in all three categories since his debut campaign in 2011. The 32-year-old still hit 18 homers and walked at a 12.7 percent clip, but his strikeout rate remained high at 28.7 percent. Trout also continued to square up the ball consistently with a 16.0 percent barrel rate and 51.5 percent hard-hit rate, both of which would rank near the top of the league among qualified hitters. Trout has played in more than 85 percent of the Angels' games just twice over the past seven seasons, with one of those instances being the shortened 2020 campaign. The durability concerns aren't going anywhere with Trout on the wrong side of 30, but he'll still be a clear difference maker for fantasy managers in 2024 if he's able to play even 120 games, which seems close to the best-case scenario given he hasn't reached that mark since 2019.

A 19th-round pick out of Virginia Tech in 2019, Carpenter bucked the odds by even reaching the majors. He continued to surprise in 2023 with 20 home runs, six steals and a 121 wRC+ in 459 plate appearances. The last of those 20 homers came Aug. 23 -- Carpenter went 34 games without a long ball to finish the season, slashing just .256/.313/.308 in that stretch. In addition to that disturbing trend, Carpenter managed just a .657 OPS against left-handed pitching for the season, leaving open the possibility for a strict platoon role. His overall body of work was impressive enough for Carpenter to project as a regular in Detroit between the corner outfield and DH, but it's understandable to still be skeptical, especially with the way last season ended for him. HIs home park does him no favors.

Thomas took another improbable step forward last season, finishing as one of 19 MLB players to go 20-20 in 2023 while also surpassing the century mark in runs scored. It all added up to just a 109 wRC+ and 2.7 fWAR across 682 plate appearances, as Thomas' middling on-base percentage and defensive metrics dinged him. Traded twice earlier in his career, including in exchange for Jon Lester in 2021, Thomas was a popular name at the trade deadline, but Washington surprised many by holding onto the outfielder. While last season may very well go down as his career year, the Nationals clearly believe in the late bloomer's production. His low walk rate and issues with same-side pitching could catch up to him in time, but Thomas should be expected to be in the lineup every day under manager Dave Martinez to begin 2024.

The fourth overall pick in 2019, Bleday has struggled to find his footing so far in the big leagues. After a disappointing debut with the Marlins in 2022, he was traded last offseason in exchange for A.J. Puk. Bleday got the call to Oakland in May and went on to slash .195/.310/.355 with 10 homers and five steals in 82 games before missing most of the final two months with a left ACL sprain. He showed some good things last season, including quality pitch selection which led to a 13.9 BB%. However, Bleday has a baffling .222 BABIP in 147 career games in the majors, and his poor batted-ball numbers show it's not all bad luck. While there may be something here, he currently projects as the fourth outfielder for the A's. Most will want to wait and see until he finds his way into regular at-bats before adding him to a fantasy roster.

Kwan offers batting average, steals and runs at the expense of home runs and RBI. Nobody in baseball whiffs at a lower rate than Kwan (career 10.0 K%) and those contact skills have kept him atop the Guardians' lineup. He's scored 182 runs over the past two seasons, 20th in the majors in that span. Kwan is an impressive runner and improved his efficiency on the basepaths last season, getting caught only three times in 24 steal attempts. The dearth of power makes Kwan a tricky play in certain league formats. In rotisserie leagues, Kwan's deficiencies can be stomached as he does more good than harm and the power can be made up elsewhere. However, in points leagues without a premium for stolen bases, Kwan might not clear the bar, especially if you're only starting three outfielders. Know your league rules well because Kwan's utility varies depending on the format.

Castro has the best season of his career as he became a solid utility player and a surprising source of stolen bases. After Castro was non-tendered by Detroit he had to settle for a minor league deal with the Twins and wasn't a sure bet to win a major league job. Castro got regular duty at third base in May when Jose Miranda struggled and hit .274 with a .780 OPS and 10 steals in the first two months of the season. He also became the backup center fielder when Byron Buxton was unable to play in the field. Castro gained manager Rocco Baldelli's confidence on the basepaths and went 33 for 38 in steal attempts. Castro drew more walks (8.3% BB%) and made harder contact (career-high 31.9% Hard Hit rate), but most of his underlying metrics were similar to his underwhelming 2022 season. A full-season career-high .328 BABIP may have indicated he was a bit lucky. However, Castro's versatility to be a plus glove around the infield and use his speed to be adequate in the outfield should help him carve out a steady role.

Greene was one of a handful of hitters who needed Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2023 season. Greene's surgery was on his non-throwing elbow, so it should not impact the timeline of his return to the field. The impact to his swing and production will be another story. Green had a successful rookie season hitting for a solid average, accepting walks while flashing his overall athleticism. The biggest flaw on Greene's young resume is the swing and miss which leads to a bottom quartile strikeout rate but good things happen more often than not when he does get bat to ball. He was not afford much time facing lefties as a rookie, but hit .279 in 93 plate appearances, but all 11 of his homers came against righties. Detroit saw enough from him to have him hitting second or third when he did start, and we should not expect that lineup position to change in 2024. He may get off to a slow start coming off surgery, but the volume should be there in the end.