Shane Bieber

30-Year-Old PitcherSP

Cleveland Guardians

60-Day IL

Injury Elbow

Est. Return 7/1/2025

2025 Stats

W-L

0-0

ERA

0.00

WHIP

0.00

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Bieber dazzled during spring training and in his first two starts of the 2024 regular season, seemingly putting concerns of his elbow issues from 2023 behind him. Unfortunately, previous injury remains the best predictor of future injury and it was at that point when it was announced Bieber needed Tommy John surgery. He will miss the first few months of the 2025 campaign and represents a wild card even before accounting for how his stuff and command bounces back post-op. Bieber's velocity and strikeouts have been heading in the wrong direction, save for the two-start sample in 2024, but he showed in 2022 he can still turn in an elite fantasy performance even with diminished stuff. He'll remain in familiar hands, inking a one-year, $14 million deal with Cleveland, so there will be motivation from both sides for him have a strong showing in the second half. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Dynasty

From Preseason

#399

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 6'3"

Weight 205

DOB 5/31/1995

Born Laguna Hills, CA

College UC-Santa Barbara

Drafted 4th Rd 2016 CLE

Will throw Friday

PCleveland Guardians

Elbow

June 4, 2025

Bieber (elbow) will have his rehab start for Double-A Akron pushed back a day to Friday, MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Bieber's next rehab start was originally slated for Thursday, per Zach Meisel of The Athletic, but Meisel followed up with a note indicating the start will now come Friday, which confirms the MLB.com report. Bieber's first rehab start was in the Arizona Complex League where he tossed 2.1 scoreless frames for the ACL Guardians.

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Pitching Stats

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2025 MLB Game Log

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2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2023

-20%

BAA vs RHP

2025

No Stats

2024

-27%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-24%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2023vs Left	.280	286	63	24	72	15	1	10
Since 2023vs Right	.224	292	64	11	62	18	1	4
2025vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2025vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2024vs Left	.190	22	11	1	4	1	0	0
2024vs Right	.261	23	9	0	6	3	0	0
2023vs Left	.288	264	52	23	68	14	1	10
2023vs Right	.220	269	55	11	56	15	1	4
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Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2023

-1%

ERA at Home

2025

No Stats

2024

No Stats

2023

-16%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2023Home	3.46	1.26	65.0	5	3	0	8.3	3.0	0.6
Since 2023Away	3.48	1.16	75.0	3	3	0	8.0	1.6	1.2
2025Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2025Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2024Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2024Away	0.00	0.92	12.0	2	0	0	15.0	0.8	0.0
2023Home	3.46	1.26	65.0	5	3	0	8.3	3.0	0.6
2023Away	4.14	1.21	63.0	1	3	0	6.7	1.7	1.4
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Prospect Rankings History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Shane Bieber See More

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

Bieber reached 200 frames in a season during 2022 for the second time in his career and was one of the best pitchers in the AL with a 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, but he ended up making just 21 starts in 2023 after experiencing elbow inflammation in July, marking the second time in three years he's missed a significant chunk of the season. The good news is the right-hander returned for two late-season starts and should have a relatively normal offseason. The not-so-good news is that Bieber took a step back prior to the injury, and he finished the campaign with a 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 107:34 K:BB across 128 innings. Considering he had career worsts in strikeout rate (20.1 percent), hard-hit rate (47.6 percent) and average exit velocity (91.6 MPH), the aforementioned numbers don't look quite so bad. His fastball velocity was also below 92 MPH for the second straight year, down nearly three ticks from 2020. Bieber's track record of success in the majors (3.07 ERA in 114 games over the past five years) is a steadying force and makes him a solid bet to bounce back in 2024, but there are certainly a few worrying trends with his down velocity and injuries over the past few years.

Bieber recovered nicely from the injury-shortened 2021 season to make all of his starts and return to the 200 innings level combining the volume of 2019 and top shelf stats from his Cy Young campaign. If you removed his name from his StatCast profile page, you may not be as interested in the player as he does give up hard contact, does not throw hard and his breaking stuff isn't particularly spinny, yet he has held the league to a sub .230 batting aveage in each of the past four seasons and his strikeout rate has been at least 25% in each of those four seasons. The sum is better than the individual parts here and he is one of just eight starting pitchers with a K-BB% greater than 20% from 2019-2022. He lacks the special fastball of the rest of that octet, but you simply cannot argue with the results and just how great he is pitching with his non-fastball offerings.

Bieber came into 2021 with aplomb after his Cy Young-winning season in 2020. There was some expected regression baked into his projections, but the final results were harsh given the events of the season. Bieber pitched effectively over 16 starts before a shoulder strain in mid-June essentially ended his season as he pitched just six more innings late in the campaign. His 2021 peripherals lineup up rather well with what he was doing in 2019 setting aside the highest walk rate of his career, albeit one at just 8.1%. His pitches still performed well as three of them -- the curve, slider and cutter -- had Whiff rates over 40% last season. His fastball betrayed him as both his expected batting average and slugging percentage were well below the actual numbers. He still pitches in a friendly division, so there should be no reason Bieber cannot return to ace status if the shoulder is healthy.

Bieber followed up his breakout 2019 season by winning the American League Cy Young Award in a unanimous vote. The right-hander was not an MVP finalist alongside teammate Jose Ramirez, but Bieber had a case; he ranked third in all of baseball in fWAR (behind Ramirez and Freddie Freeman) and went 8-1 in 12 starts, carrying a Cleveland rotation that was without Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac for a prolonged stretch. Bieber led the majors in K-BB rate at 34% and held opponents to a .167 average while showcasing some of the best command seen on a baseball field in recent memory. Hitters can still hit the ball hard when they manage to connect, but the connections are so few and far between that it hardly matters. The only real question is: has Bieber surpassed Jacob deGrom and/or Gerrit Cole among starters? It's close, but remember Bieber won't get to pitch all his games against Central Division teams in 2021.

In Bieber's rookie campaign, his 4.55 ERA was more than a run higher than his 3.23 xFIP and 3.45 SIERA. Once again, the ERA estimators proved prescient as Bieber posted a 3.28 ERA, perfectly supported with a 3.23 xFIP and 3.36 SIERA. Bieber's 93-mph fastball isn't overpowering, but he deploys a four-pitch mix with excellent control, changing speeds and eye levels effectively. The result is a dominating 25.5 K-BB%. Curiously, Bieber's average exit velocity allowed, and hard-hit rate are very poor, around 4th percentile. Last season's .296 BABIP wasn't affected much, but there's noteworthy concern as evidenced by a .246 xBA -- 17 points higher than his actual .229 mark. The high average exit velocity was responsible for 31 homers in 214.1 innings. Bieber will be drafted as an ace, rightfully so. Just beware there's some risk if he doesn't induce weaker contact. If he does, he's elite.

The surface numbers from Bieber's rookie season leave a lot to be desired, but he was much better than a 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP would suggest. After getting the call in late May, Bieber struck out more than five batters for every one he walked (5.13 K/BB, 19.6% K-BB) while maintaining an above-average groundball rate (46.6%). A sub-70 percent strand rate and .356 BABIP skewed the ratios. In the end, all three of his FIP, xFIP and SIERA were more than a full run lower than his ERA. Bieber wasn't afraid to challenge hitters, throwing first-pitch strikes 66.4% of the time, and he used his breaking stuff later in counts to get swinging strikes. He doesn't overpower hitters with the fastball, but Bieber's pitch mix and command put him in position to be successful for a long time in the major leagues. He threw 194.1 innings between the majors and minors last year and shouldn't have any real limitations in 2019. This is a pitcher you want on your team.

More Fantasy News

Next rehab start set

PCleveland Guardians

Elbow

June 1, 2025

Bieber (elbow) will make a rehab start with Double-A Akron on Thursday, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports.

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Makes first rehab start

PCleveland Guardians

Elbow

June 1, 2025

Bieber (elbow) allowed one hit and no walks while striking out five over 2.1 scoreless innings Saturday in a rehab start in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League.

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First rehab start scheduled

PCleveland Guardians

Elbow

May 26, 2025

Bieber (elbow) will make his first rehab start Saturday in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League, SI.com reports.

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Next rehab steps mapped out

PCleveland Guardians

Elbow

May 19, 2025

Cleveland pitching coach Carl Willis said Sunday that the organization has put together a draft of the rehabilitation calendar for Bieber (elbow), Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.

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Continues live BP sessions

PCleveland Guardians

Elbow

May 18, 2025

Bieber (elbow) threw a live batting practice session Friday that Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt said "went well," MLB.com reports.

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Interest from Tigers?

PFree Agent

November 24, 2024

Per Evan Woodbery of MLive.com, the Tigers could have interest in signing Bieber, who is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

ANALYSIS
The right-hander underwent the procedure in April after making just two starts for Cleveland, so he may not be available in 2025 until the summer months. Bieber has a 3.02 ERA across the past six seasons, and he could be looking for a short-term contract this winter in order to set himself up for a better payday later on when he's healthy.

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