Joe Ryan

28-Year-Old PitcherSP

Minnesota Twins

Out

Injury Shoulder

Est. Return 2/1/2025

2024 Stats

W-L

7-7

ERA

3.60

WHIP

0.99

147

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Ryan had a roller-coaster season for the Twins as he had a 2.98 ERA with a 9.65 K/9 and 0.91 WHIP through his first 15 starts of the season. He then seemingly ran out of gas by posting a 8.63 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over this next seven starts before he went on the injured list with a strained groin. His final eight starts after he returned were not much better (5.90 ERA) and the Twins limited him to one short two-inning start in the playoffs. Ryan doesn't have great velocity (92.3 average mph fastball) but has an extremely deceptive four-seam fastball that helped him generate an excellent 29.3% K% and 14.2% swinging strike rate. His weakness is as a fly-ball pitcher (31.6% GB%) he can be prone to the long ball. Home runs were especially an issue last season with a career-worst 1.78 HR/9 driven by a high 14.9% HB/FB%. He usually limits the damage for home runs by typically having one of the lowest walk rates in baseball (5.1% BB%). Ryan will be counted on at the top of the Twins rotation and could improve significantly if he can keep the ball in the park and improve one of his off-speed pitches, which all took a step backward last year. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#121

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'1"

Weight 185

DOB 6/5/1996

Drafted 7th Rd 2018

Shoulder injury recovery on track

PMinnesota Twins

Shoulder

November 9, 2024

Ryan has made good progress in his recovery from a shoulder injury that ended his season in early August, Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told MLB.com. "Reports on him have been nothing but positive, kind of exactly what we expect for this to recover," Falvey said. "So that's good news."

ANALYSIS
Ryan suffered a Grade 2 teres major strain during a start Aug. 9 and missed the rest of the regular season. While no details were given about Ryan's progress, it sounds like he'll be ready for the start of spring training. He'll return to work at the top of the Minnesota rotation after going 7-7 with a 3.60 ERA and 9.8 K/9 in 23 starts last season.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Joe Ryan generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Joe Ryan generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-13%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-11%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-17%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-8%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.210	869	197	58	167	30	6	26
Since 2022vs Right	.241	945	298	46	213	52	3	45
2024vs Left	.203	255	61	11	49	8	3	9
2024vs Right	.229	283	86	12	61	16	3	10
2023vs Left	.222	315	80	20	64	11	1	9
2023vs Right	.269	357	117	14	91	19	0	23
2022vs Left	.202	299	56	27	54	11	2	8
2022vs Right	.219	305	95	20	61	17	0	12
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-17%

ERA at Home

2024

-16%

ERA on Road

2023

-27%

ERA at Home

2022

-28%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	3.57	1.02	232.0	19	11	0	10.6	2.1	1.2
Since 2022Away	4.29	1.17	211.2	12	14	0	9.5	2.1	1.7
2024Home	3.92	0.96	66.2	5	3	0	9.6	1.4	1.4
2024Away	3.29	1.01	68.1	2	4	0	10.0	1.7	1.2
2023Home	3.83	1.08	82.1	7	4	0	12.1	1.6	1.3
2023Away	5.22	1.26	79.1	4	6	0	9.8	2.2	2.3
2022Home	3.04	1.01	83.0	7	4	0	9.8	3.1	1.0
2022Away	4.22	1.22	64.0	6	4	0	8.6	2.5	1.5
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Stat Review

How does Joe Ryan compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

6.39

K/9

9.8

BB/9

1.5

HR/9

1.3

Fastball

93.9 mph

ERA

3.60

WHIP

0.99

BABIP

.280

GB/FB

0.88

Left On Base

69.5%

Exit Velocity

81.6 mph

Barrels/BBE

5.4%

Spin Rate

2266 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

22.4%

Swinging Strike

13.1%

Prospect Rankings History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

Ryan showed his late season 2021 callup promise was not fluke as he had a strong rookie season with 13 wins and 3.55 ERA. Ryan doesn't have great velocity (91.5 average mph fastball) but has an extremely deceptive four-seam fastball that helped him generate an above-average 9.2 K/9 and 12% swinging strike rate. As a fly-ball pitcher (27.7% GB%), home runs can be a worry (1.2 HR/9), but he limits the damage with a plus walk rate (2.88 BB/9). He missed three weeks with Covid-19 in late May/early June, but was otherwise healthy. He should provide a steady productive presence at the top of the Minnesota rotation.

As a minor-leaguer, Ryan had always logged very impressive statistics (career 2.67 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) thanks to an extremely deceptive 91-mph fourseam fastball he leaned on heavily (over 60% usage). The Rays opted to cash him out before he ever pitched in the majors, along with pitching prospect Drew Strotman, for 10 weeks of Nelson Cruz. The early returns suggest the Twins landed a long-term rotation anchor. He struck out more than five in only one of his five starts (11 K's against a very weak Cubs lineup), but Ryan was stingy with baserunners (13 in 22 IP) prior to a blowup outing in his final start of the year against the Tigers. There are dozens of pitching prospects with more exciting repertoires, but given the fact that Ryan has good command and is locked into a big-league rotation spot, he is arguably more valuable than all but a handful of pitchers who have yet to make their big-league debuts. The 25-year-old righty threw 92.2 innings last season, so look for him to be limited to around 150 frames this year.

A seventh-round pick in 2018, Ryan didn't get a chance to follow up on his breakout 2019 with another strong statistical season, but he might have been better served getting major-league instruction at the Rays' alternate training site. The 24-year-old right-hander has a plus fastball, strong command and a looping delivery that hitters have a hard time picking up, a package that was enough to dominate hitters in the low minors, but any hope of a future in the rotation would likely require a dramatic expansion of his arsenal. Working with better coaching last year might have helped unlock his embryonic curve, slider and changeup, however. Ryan might make his major-league debut in 2021 if he baffles Triple-A hitters the way he did A-ball opposition, but the repertoire he showed in 2019 could lead to early struggles.

Ryan led all qualified minor-league pitchers in FIP (1.91) and K-BB% (32.4) and finished second in strikeouts (183). Unfortunately, we can't point to a bevy of plus pitches and say that this breakout pitcher has frontline upside. He has one dominant pitch that he threw 75% of the time -- a 70-grade mid-90s fastball -- that is aided by a deceptive delivery and good command. His secondary pitches are so underdeveloped that we can't even say with confidence which offspeed pitches will be a part of his arsenal when he gets to the majors. Ryan's changeup probably has the most potential, but it is still in its nascent stages. He has tried several breaking balls, with his curveball showing the most potential. Ryan will return to Double-A and should reach Triple-A, but as a one-pitch flyball pitcher, his minor-league numbers greatly oversell his readiness to have success in a big-league rotation.

More Fantasy News

Won't return in regular season

PMinnesota Twins

Shoulder

August 27, 2024

The Twins transferred Ryan (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.

ANALYSIS
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Exam confirms shoulder issue

PMinnesota Twins

Shoulder

August 16, 2024

A second opinion on Ryan's shoulder showed a Grade 2 teres major strain, Stephen Hawkins of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.

ANALYSIS
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Heads to IL with teres major strain

PMinnesota Twins

Shoulder

August 9, 2024

The Twins placed Ryan on the 15-day injured list Friday with a Grade 2 right teres major strain, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports.

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Undergoing MRI on Thursday

PMinnesota Twins

Triceps

August 8, 2024

Ryan will undergo an MRI on his injured right triceps Thursday, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North reports.

ANALYSIS
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Nursing triceps tightness

PMinnesota Twins

Triceps

August 7, 2024

Ryan was lifted from Wednesday's start versus the Cubs in the third inning due to right tricep tightness, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

May hit innings limit

PMinnesota Twins

August 19, 2022

Ryan exceeded 100 innings pitched for the season in his last start and is closing in on a new career-high total as a professional.

ANALYSIS
Ryan has a combined 104 innings pitched between Triple-A and the majors this season, exceeding last year's total of 92.2 innings. While he tossed 123.2 frames in the minors in 2019, the COVID-19 shutdown in 2020 kept him from logging any professional innings. It's reasonable to assume that Ryan will be able to weather an increase in innings this season but also worth noting that he has an 8.10 ERA and seven homers allowed in 20 innings over his last four starts. Minnesota is currently a game behind Cleveland for the top spot in the American League Central and will likely need its 26-year-old starter for any postseason run.

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