Joe Ryan

Joe Ryan

28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Minnesota Twins
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Ryan was on track for the best season of his career with a 3.60 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 115 ERA+ before suffering a Grade 2 teres major strain during a start Aug. 9 that caused him to miss the rest of the season. Ryan doesn't have great velocity (93.9 average mph fastball) but has an extremely deceptive four-seam fastball that helped him generate an excellent 27.3 K% and 13.1% swinging-strike rate. Meanwhile, his off-speed pitches graded below average. His real weakness is as a flyball pitcher (35.7 GB%), he can be prone to the long ball. However, he improved last season with 1.27 HR/9 from 1.78 HR/9 in 2023. Ryan will be counted on at the top of the Minnesota rotation and could improve significantly if he can keep the ball in the park, improve his off-speed repertoire and stay healthy (he also struggled late in 2023 after missing time with a groin injury). Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#111
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $3 million contract with the Twins in January of 2025.
Looks sharp in spring debut
PMinnesota Twins
March 6, 2025
Ryan threw two scoreless innings with four strikeouts and a walk in his spring training debut in Thursday's win over the Yankees. "Great introduction to the season for Joe. He looked good," manager Rocco Baldelli told the Minnesota Star Tribune. "He even threw a nice slider or two, that little sweepy pitch that he throws, and showed a little feel for it. He's out there facing a good lineup, and he goes right at them."
ANALYSIS
Ryan reached 93-94 mph with his fastball and faced most of the starters in the Yankees lineup. Ryan suffered a Grade 2 teres major strain during a start Aug. 9 and missed the rest of the regular season, but he had an MRI in November that showed a "complete resolution" of the shoulder strain and entering spring training health. It looks like he'll be full speed for Opening Day.
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Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-11%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-17%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .214 570 141 31 113 19 4 18
Since 2023vs Right .252 640 203 26 152 35 3 33
2025vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Left .203 255 61 11 49 8 3 9
2024vs Right .229 283 86 12 61 16 3 10
2023vs Left .222 315 80 20 64 11 1 9
2023vs Right .269 357 117 14 91 19 0 23
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-11%
ERA at Home
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-16%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 3.87 1.03 149.0 12 7 0 11.0 1.5 1.3
Since 2023Away 4.33 1.14 147.2 6 10 0 9.9 2.0 1.8
2025Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Home 3.92 0.96 66.2 5 3 0 9.6 1.4 1.4
2024Away 3.29 1.01 68.1 2 4 0 10.0 1.7 1.2
2023Home 3.83 1.08 82.1 7 4 0 12.1 1.6 1.3
2023Away 5.22 1.26 79.1 4 6 0 9.8 2.2 2.3
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Prospect Rankings History
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Joe Ryan See More
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2 days ago
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2 days ago
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2 days ago
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7 days ago
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14 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Ryan had a roller-coaster season for the Twins as he had a 2.98 ERA with a 9.65 K/9 and 0.91 WHIP through his first 15 starts of the season. He then seemingly ran out of gas by posting a 8.63 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over this next seven starts before he went on the injured list with a strained groin. His final eight starts after he returned were not much better (5.90 ERA) and the Twins limited him to one short two-inning start in the playoffs. Ryan doesn't have great velocity (92.3 average mph fastball) but has an extremely deceptive four-seam fastball that helped him generate an excellent 29.3% K% and 14.2% swinging strike rate. His weakness is as a fly-ball pitcher (31.6% GB%) he can be prone to the long ball. Home runs were especially an issue last season with a career-worst 1.78 HR/9 driven by a high 14.9% HB/FB%. He usually limits the damage for home runs by typically having one of the lowest walk rates in baseball (5.1% BB%). Ryan will be counted on at the top of the Twins rotation and could improve significantly if he can keep the ball in the park and improve one of his off-speed pitches, which all took a step backward last year.
Ryan showed his late season 2021 callup promise was not fluke as he had a strong rookie season with 13 wins and 3.55 ERA. Ryan doesn't have great velocity (91.5 average mph fastball) but has an extremely deceptive four-seam fastball that helped him generate an above-average 9.2 K/9 and 12% swinging strike rate. As a fly-ball pitcher (27.7% GB%), home runs can be a worry (1.2 HR/9), but he limits the damage with a plus walk rate (2.88 BB/9). He missed three weeks with Covid-19 in late May/early June, but was otherwise healthy. He should provide a steady productive presence at the top of the Minnesota rotation.
As a minor-leaguer, Ryan had always logged very impressive statistics (career 2.67 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) thanks to an extremely deceptive 91-mph fourseam fastball he leaned on heavily (over 60% usage). The Rays opted to cash him out before he ever pitched in the majors, along with pitching prospect Drew Strotman, for 10 weeks of Nelson Cruz. The early returns suggest the Twins landed a long-term rotation anchor. He struck out more than five in only one of his five starts (11 K's against a very weak Cubs lineup), but Ryan was stingy with baserunners (13 in 22 IP) prior to a blowup outing in his final start of the year against the Tigers. There are dozens of pitching prospects with more exciting repertoires, but given the fact that Ryan has good command and is locked into a big-league rotation spot, he is arguably more valuable than all but a handful of pitchers who have yet to make their big-league debuts. The 25-year-old righty threw 92.2 innings last season, so look for him to be limited to around 150 frames this year.
A seventh-round pick in 2018, Ryan didn't get a chance to follow up on his breakout 2019 with another strong statistical season, but he might have been better served getting major-league instruction at the Rays' alternate training site. The 24-year-old right-hander has a plus fastball, strong command and a looping delivery that hitters have a hard time picking up, a package that was enough to dominate hitters in the low minors, but any hope of a future in the rotation would likely require a dramatic expansion of his arsenal. Working with better coaching last year might have helped unlock his embryonic curve, slider and changeup, however. Ryan might make his major-league debut in 2021 if he baffles Triple-A hitters the way he did A-ball opposition, but the repertoire he showed in 2019 could lead to early struggles.
Ryan led all qualified minor-league pitchers in FIP (1.91) and K-BB% (32.4) and finished second in strikeouts (183). Unfortunately, we can't point to a bevy of plus pitches and say that this breakout pitcher has frontline upside. He has one dominant pitch that he threw 75% of the time -- a 70-grade mid-90s fastball -- that is aided by a deceptive delivery and good command. His secondary pitches are so underdeveloped that we can't even say with confidence which offspeed pitches will be a part of his arsenal when he gets to the majors. Ryan's changeup probably has the most potential, but it is still in its nascent stages. He has tried several breaking balls, with his curveball showing the most potential. Ryan will return to Double-A and should reach Triple-A, but as a one-pitch flyball pitcher, his minor-league numbers greatly oversell his readiness to have success in a big-league rotation.
More Fantasy News
No shoulder issues as spring begins
PMinnesota Twins
February 13, 2025
Ryan (shoulder) threw 36 pitches without any discomfort Thursday in his first bullpen session of the spring, MLB.com reports. "He came back from [the injury] the way we hoped he would. It gave him virtually pretty close to a normal offseason, which is what you're hoping for," said manager Rocco Baldelli.
ANALYSIS
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Throwing bullpen sessions
PMinnesota Twins
Shoulder
January 26, 2025
Ryan had an MRI in November that showed a "complete resolution" of the shoulder strain that ended his 2024 season in August, Phil Miller of the Minnesota Star Tribune reports. He's thrown three bullpen sessions this winter.
ANALYSIS
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Settles at $3 million
PMinnesota Twins
Shoulder
January 9, 2025
The Twins and Ryan (shoulder) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $3 million contract Thursday, Darren Wolfson of Channel 5 Saint Paul reports.
ANALYSIS
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Shoulder injury recovery on track
PMinnesota Twins
Shoulder
November 9, 2024
Ryan has made good progress in his recovery from a shoulder injury that ended his season in early August, Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told MLB.com. "Reports on him have been nothing but positive, kind of exactly what we expect for this to recover," Falvey said. "So that's good news."
ANALYSIS
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Won't return in regular season
PMinnesota Twins
Shoulder
August 27, 2024
The Twins transferred Ryan (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
May hit innings limit
PMinnesota Twins
August 19, 2022
Ryan exceeded 100 innings pitched for the season in his last start and is closing in on a new career-high total as a professional.
ANALYSIS
Ryan has a combined 104 innings pitched between Triple-A and the majors this season, exceeding last year's total of 92.2 innings. While he tossed 123.2 frames in the minors in 2019, the COVID-19 shutdown in 2020 kept him from logging any professional innings. It's reasonable to assume that Ryan will be able to weather an increase in innings this season but also worth noting that he has an 8.10 ERA and seven homers allowed in 20 innings over his last four starts. Minnesota is currently a game behind Cleveland for the top spot in the American League Central and will likely need its 26-year-old starter for any postseason run.
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