Austin Wells

Wells hasn't changed much as a prospect since the Yankees selected him at the back of the first round in 2020, and he enters the year atop the big-league depth chart after getting 75 plate appearances to close 2023. Per Baseball Savant's three-year rolling average, Yankee Stadium has been the second-best park for lefty power, and the lefty-hitting Wells already has at least 50-grade power, so 20 homers seems doable as a rookie if he gets the workload of a starting catcher. In his minor-league career, the only level where Wells hit better than .261 was High-A, and he had a walk rate of 11 percent or higher at every minor-league stop, so he is going to be more valuable in OBP leagues than batting average leagues. An unsustainably-high 13.8 Barrel% in his small MLB sample helped generate optimistic x stats (.275 xBA, .566 xSLG, .367 xwOBA), and while he won't approach those numbers over a full season, there are enough encouraging signs with Wells that he makes for a viable second catcher in two-catcher leagues. Wells is a mediocre defensive catcher, so the biggest risk in fantasy is that his defense costs him playing time and he only hits 10-15 home runs instead of 20-plus. The projection system Steamer has Jose Trevino and Ben Rortvedt being worth more wins above replacement than Wells on a per plate appearance basis due to their defense, but it still seems like Wells will be given every chance to be the guy given his draft pedigree and offensive upside.

Very little about Wells' long-term projection has changed since he got into pro ball. He still projects to be a subpar defensive catcher and he still projects to be a high-OBP hitter whose lefty swing is tailor made for Yankee Stadium. Wells slashed .273/.380/.504 with a 22.2 K%, 13.8 BB% and 20 home runs in 405 plate appearances, over half of which came at Double-A. The Yankees have valued catcher defense in recent seasons - Jose Trevino led all catchers by a significant margin in FanGraphs' defensive WAR in 2022 - but at some point either in 2023 or 2024, Wells should get a chance to show what he is capable of in the majors. If he were to play roughly two-thirds of the time (not a given because of the defense), Wells has the offensive upside to be a top-10 fantasy option at the position. He stole 16 bases on 16 attempts last year, but there are no public scouting reports that list him as any better than a 45-grade runner, so it would be unwise to expect him to steal more than a few bases per year in the majors.

Wells performed to his usual high standards as an older player (turned 22 in July) at Low-A and High-A, hitting .264/.390/.476 with 16 home runs, a 24.9 K% and a 15.1 BB%. He finished the season even stronger, slashing .344/.456/.578 with two home runs, a 20.3 K% and a 16.5 BB% in 18 Arizona Fall League games. His all-fields approach and ability to get the ball in the air were what made him such an appealing draft prospect in 2020 (No. 28 overall pick), and those traits are as strong as ever. If Wells projected as as strong defensive catcher, he would be very highly ranked on real-life lists, but as things stand, only the Yankees express any belief in his ability to stick there. Left field, first base and designated hitter are all possible landing spots if he moves off the position, and his left-handed power would play quite well in Yankee Stadium. Look for him to spend most of the season at Double-A.

Wells might be the fourth-best college hitter from last year's draft, but he fell to the Yankees with the No. 28 pick due to concerns about his defense behind the plate. The draft-eligible sophomore has a very pretty left-handed swing that would fit nicely in Yankee Stadium. He raked at Arizona and in the summer of 2019, he hit .308/.389/.526 with seven home runs in 42 games with a wood bat in the Cape Cod League. They are different hitters and Wells is a better athlete, but there are similarities to Kyle Schwarber, as nobody questions whether Wells' bat will play, but he is a shaky defensive catcher who may fit better in left field or at first base. There is some swing-and-miss in his game, but he still walked more than he struck out in college. The Yankees maintain he will be developed as a catcher, but for fantasy it would be preferable for him to move to left field to expedite his ascent to the majors.