Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal

27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Detroit Tigers
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Skubal underwent left flexor tendon surgery in August of 2022 and his rehab extended through the first three months of last season. He was on a limited pitch count initially upon his return and there were some bumps in the road early, but Skubal eventually rounded into form, going 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 52:6 K:BB in his final six starts (36 innings). A ninth-round pick in 2018, Skubal changed up his formula last season, dialing back his slider usage significantly for more four-seam fastballs and changeups. The changeup proved to be a big swing-and-miss pitch for him (50.6 Whiff% per Statcast) -- he still threw his slider, but the changeup became his primary secondary pitch behind the four-seamer. In total, the southpaw pitched just 95 innings last season, but if healthy, he should approach his career high of 149.1 innings set in 2021. Entering his age-27 season, Skubal will face an uphill battle every time he takes the ball for Detroit, but his skills are enticing. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#50
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2.65 million contract with the Tigers in January of 2024.
All set for ALDS Game 2 start
PDetroit Tigers
October 4, 2024
Skubal (hamstring) will start Monday in Game 2 of the ALDS versus the Guardians, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Skubal was lifted from his wild-card series start against the Astros after six scoreless innings and 88 pitches due to some hamstring cramping, but he was never in any danger of missing his first start of the ALDS. Tyler Holton will be the opener for the Tigers in Game 1 before Skubal takes the ball in Game 2 on five days rest.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
90
Last 10 Games
93
Last 5 Games
92
How many pitches does Tarik Skubal generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Tarik Skubal generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-9%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-40%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .202 268 55 8 51 10 1 3
Since 2022vs Right .214 1272 392 73 253 53 8 25
2024vs Left .186 122 33 5 21 2 1 1
2024vs Right .204 631 195 30 121 22 3 14
2023vs Left .125 42 4 2 5 0 0 1
2023vs Right .210 268 98 12 53 11 3 3
2022vs Left .250 104 18 1 25 8 0 1
2022vs Right .234 373 99 31 79 20 2 8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-34%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-30%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-67%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-9%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 2.25 0.92 200.0 17 6 0 10.1 2.2 0.6
Since 2022Away 3.41 1.06 190.0 15 9 0 10.6 1.6 0.7
2024Home 1.99 0.83 104.0 10 1 0 10.1 2.0 0.6
2024Away 2.86 1.03 88.0 8 3 0 11.4 1.2 0.8
2023Home 1.37 0.79 39.1 3 1 0 13.5 1.6 0.5
2023Away 4.17 1.00 41.0 4 2 0 9.4 1.5 0.4
2022Home 3.34 1.16 56.2 4 4 0 7.6 2.9 0.6
2022Away 3.69 1.15 61.0 3 4 0 10.2 2.1 0.7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Tarik Skubal compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
6.51
 
K/9
10.7
 
BB/9
1.6
 
HR/9
0.7
 
Fastball
96.8 mph
 
ERA
2.39
 
WHIP
0.92
 
BABIP
.288
 
GB/FB
1.47
 
Left On Base
78.8%
 
Exit Velocity
82.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.6%
 
Spin Rate
2057 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
20.1%
 
Swinging Strike
15.2%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Tarik Skubal See More
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23 days ago
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23 days ago
Selections for the deciding game of the Guardians-Tigers series have been presented for Saturday's DraftKings MLB showdown slate.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Skubal appeared to be in the middle of a breakout campaign in 2022, but the lefty was unfortunately shut down in early August with left arm fatigue, and he subsequently underwent flexor tendon surgery. Before getting shut down, Skubal had posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 117 strikeouts across 117.2 innings. His K/9 dipped from 9.88 in 2021 to 8.95 in 2022, but his numbers were otherwise better across the board, including an impressive 2.95 FIP. Skubal will only be 24 years old when the 2023 season begins, so there's still plenty of potential here down the road, but he's expected to begin the year on the injured list and miss a decent chunk of time. Fantasy managers in standard leagues will want to keep an eye on Skubal, and he could be a decent pickup when he returns, though the Tigers will undoubtedly be cautious with him. He does have more value in keeper and dynasty formats, where his outlook beyond 2023 looks brighter.
To say Skubal's 4.34 ERA and 1.26 WHIP were league average is burying the lede. He posted those ratios despite a 5.5% home run rate, second to only Mike Foltynewicz among starting pitchers. Skubal kept his ratios in check with a 25.9 K% and 7.4 BB%. His 18.5 K-BB% was an impressive 27th among pitchers with at least 140 innings. Skubal's four-seamer was responsible for 22 of his 35 homers. Better location or even cutting back on its 43% usage rate could help Skubal keep the ball in the yard. The changeup was Skubal's most effective pitch with an 18.8 SwStr%, followed by his slider at 15%. Skubal's potential and likely presence on so-called sleeper lists will drive up the price for his sophomore campaign, potential wiping out profit. On the other hand, there are pathways to fewer homers, with that road potentially leading to elite status.
Skubal had an uneven rookie season, but he emerged healthy and should have a rotation spot locked up for the foreseeable future. The 6-foot-3 southpaw's 94-mph fourseamer can touch 98 mph and plays up even more due to deception and extension. The rest of Skubal's repertoire is a work in progress, but a big lefty with a fastball that plays as a 70-grade pitch is a nice place to start. He has always been a flyball pitcher, and he gave up more home runs (nine) in 32 MLB innings than he did in 145 minor-league innings (seven). His 8.2 BB% was an improvement on the 10.6 BB% he logged at Double-A in 2019. Skubal didn't need to consistently execute his offspeed pitches to have success in the minors, and he should get more comfortable with those pitches going forward. If a couple of them can emerge as trustworthy offerings, he should be an effective high-strikeout starter who is susceptible to the long ball.
Skubal would be one of the game's best pitching prospects if we just scouted stats. Poor control caused him to fall in the 2018 draft as a redshirt junior out of Seattle University. He has always missed bats at an elite clip and logged 179 strikeouts in 122.2 innings in his first full season. He does it with a low-to-mid-90s fastball (touches 98) with late life that plays up due to a deceptive left-handed delivery. He doesn't consistently hit his spots, but Skubal's heater can be an unfair pitch regardless of where it is thrown (think Josh Hader), especially for minor leaguers. His middling secondaries play up as well because hitters are forced to gear up for the fastball. Sometimes he will break off a quality curveball or changeup, but they are inconsistent offerings. His injury history, command and secondaries point to a lights-out reliever role, but the Tigers will do their best to make him a starter.
More Fantasy News
Battling cramps
PDetroit Tigers
Undisclosed
October 1, 2024
Manager A.J. Hinch said after Tuesday's wild-card game against Houston that Skubal is dealing with cramping, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Taking ball in Game 1
PDetroit Tigers
September 30, 2024
Skubal will start Game 1 of the wild-card series against the Astros on Tuesday, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports.
ANALYSIS
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May be saved for playoffs
PDetroit Tigers
September 26, 2024
Manager A.J. Hinch said Thursday that Skubal is "unlikely" to pitch in Sunday's regular-season finale versus the White Sox if the Tigers have already clinched a wild-card spot but still have seeding at stake, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Stellar in 18th win
PDetroit Tigers
September 24, 2024
Skubal (18-4) earned the win Tuesday over Tampa Bay, allowing two hits and one walk over seven scoreless innings. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
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Goes five innings in win
PDetroit Tigers
September 18, 2024
Skubal (17-4) allowed one run on three hits and a walk while striking out seven over five innings to earn the win over the Royals on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Trade not considered
PDetroit Tigers
July 31, 2024
According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, the Tigers "wouldn't talk about Skubal at all" leading up to Tuesday's trade deadline.
ANALYSIS
There were plenty of trade rumors circling about Skubal over the past few weeks, but the Tigers apparently didn't give the idea much consideration. The left-hander has a 2.35 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 154:24 K:BB across 130 innings this season and will continue his push for the AL Cy Young Award.
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