George Kirby

George Kirby

27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Seattle Mariners
15-Day IL
Injury Shoulder
Est. Return 4/16/2025
2025 Fantasy Outlook
For the second straight year, Kirby had the lowest walk rate among qualified starters. He got off to a rocky start with an eight-run blowup in his second outing of the year and a 4.33 ERA through his first 11 starts. However, Kirby then turned in nine consecutive quality starts from June 9 to July 26. Water usually finds its level, and Kirby's 3.53 ERA at the end of the year was pretty much right in line with the underlying skills (3.58 xFIP, 3.56 SIERA). He's reached 190 innings in back-to-back seasons, but that is likely out of reach for 2025 given Kirby will start the year on the year with a shoulder issue. The other problem is that he still has not shown any growth with his strikeout rate, which has hovered right around 23 percent in each of his three seasons in the majors so far. It's not out of the question that the right pitch-mix tweak could unlock another level with the punchouts, but that's purely conjecture at this point. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#89
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.3 million contract with the Mariners in January of 2025.
Will throw again Saturday
PSeattle Mariners
Shoulder
March 21, 2025
Kirby (shoulder) made 20 throws from 60 feet Friday and will expand his throwing distance to 75 feet Saturday, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
ANALYSIS
Kirby was cleared to begin a throwing program Friday, two weeks after being sidelined with right shoulder inflammation. The right-hander was given a biologics injection last week, which he said definitely helped speed along the healing process. There is no timetable for when Kirby will be ready to make his season debut, as the Mariners will have to see how he responds to the ramp-up.
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Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
2022
2020
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-4%
BAA vs RHP
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-9%
BAA vs RHP
2023
Even Split
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .251 710 170 26 169 32 7 22
Since 2023vs Right .240 825 181 16 191 34 3 22
2025vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Left .257 356 88 15 86 19 2 12
2024vs Right .234 422 91 8 95 19 1 10
2023vs Left .246 354 82 11 83 13 5 10
2023vs Right .247 403 90 8 96 15 2 12
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-21%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-32%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 2.87 0.94 175.2 14 9 0 9.2 1.0 0.7
Since 2023Away 3.93 1.15 206.0 13 12 0 7.5 1.0 1.3
2025Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Home 3.06 1.01 82.1 6 5 0 9.2 1.1 0.5
2024Away 3.89 1.11 108.2 8 6 0 7.9 1.1 1.4
2023Home 2.70 0.89 93.1 8 4 0 9.3 1.0 0.9
2023Away 3.98 1.18 97.1 5 6 0 7.0 0.8 1.2
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Prospect Rankings History
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring George Kirby See More
Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything
3 days ago
Brad Johnson discusses the relationship between fundamental player defense and quality of pitching, and pitchers like Erick Fedde returning from playing in Asia to have eye-catching pitching numbers at home.
Are We Any Good At Predicting Pitcher Injuries?
4 days ago
With supposed paragon of durability George Kirby opening the year on the injured list, it's time to ask whether or not we really have any idea about which pitchers are injury-prone.
AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
7 days ago
The American League waiver wire is packed with options as Opening Day approaches, and the return of Nolan Jones to the Cleveland Guardians should settle their murky right field situation.
RotoWire Roundtable: Updated Fantasy Baseball Top-300 Rankings
9 days ago
The latest update to the RotoWire Roundtable Rankings sees Jackson Chourio move into the back of the first round.
Collette Calls: My AL Tout Wars Review
10 days ago
Jason Collette breaks down his AL Tout Wars team, which includes the currently injured George Kirby at a discount price.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
After being highly touted as a prospect, Kirby showed great promise in his debut season in 2022. The right-hander took his game to another level in his sophomore campaign, shaving his walk rate from 4.1% to a minuscule 2.5%, the lowest among qualified starters. Kirby has already made history multiple times with his strike-throwing; he tossed 24 consecutive strikes at one point as a rookie and now owns the record for the most quality starts with zero walks (11) by a pitcher age 25 or younger. Kirby lowered his WHIP from 1.21 as a rookie to 1.04 last season while adding more than 60 innings to his 2022 total. His five-pitch mix would seem to give him some room for growth in the strikeout department (career 23.5 K%), but until we see that growth, Kirby should probably remain just outside the fantasy ace tier.
Kirby is an extremely fascinating pitching profile for a few reasons. His primary calling card is his fastball command as he has been incredibly stingy with walks as a pitcher since college. He has 43 walks in 247 innings of professional baseball and walked 50 in 240 innings as a college pitcher at Elon University. He uses that fastball command to fill the strikezone with his fastball as he throws his four-seamer 45% of the time and the league hit .221 against that pitch. That fastball, by velo and movement, aligns him with the likes of Brandon Woodruff, Frankie Montas, Zack Wheeler, and Jameson Taillon according to StatCast. The other part of his profile is the rest of his repertoire is very hittable as every other pitch he threw had an opponents' batting average .266 or higher. Despite that challenge, he won 8 of his 25 starts upon his promotion and still had a good ratios with a stellar 21% K-BB%. If any of his secondary offerings can take a step forward, things could get very interesting for him in a hurry as there were signficant gaps in his actual vs expected batting averages on his cutter, sinker, and slider. Wide awake sleeper!
At this point, Kirby seems like a near finished product by pitching prospect standards, with the main question mark being durability. He regularly went seven or eight days in between starts last year and missed three weeks in May and and another four weeks in July with shoulder/arm issues. All told, the 6-foot-4 righty logged a 2.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 80:15 K:BB in 67.2 innings (15 starts) across High-A and Double-A. He has always had some of the best command and control in the minors, and Kirby now boasts a monster mid-to-high 90s fastball with good life and three secondary offerings with upside -- his plus upper-80s slider is currently his best offspeed pitch. It's easy to see Kirby maxing out as the Mariners' best pitcher and a true frontline arm if he can start pushing up to 150-plus innings, but just getting to 120-plus innings would be an accomplishment in 2022.
On paper, Kirby stacks up with any pitching prospect in the game. The only problem is that we're still mostly working with scouting grades and biographical data, rather than a track record in pro games. His command projects to be as good as, if not better than, that of any other top pitching prospect, which is a nice place to start. He also has a picturesque delivery coming from a prototypical 6-foot-4, 200-pound frame. Kirby's command has typically been the highlight of his scouting report, but his low-90s fastball ticked up and became a mid-90s pitch that touched 99 mph this past summer at the alternate training site. The 20th overall pick in 2019 out of Elon (a small university in North Carolina) also boasts three average or better secondaries, with his slider and changeup each showing plus potential. He is advanced enough to reach the majors with fewer than 100 pro innings under his belt.
Amateur pitchers with Kirby's potentially elite command that also happen to have legitimate stuff are a rare breed. After walking six batters in 88.1 innings as a junior at Elon, Kirby issued zero walks over 23 innings in his debut. He has a prototypical 6-foot-4, 205-pound frame and a picturesque right-handed delivery. While he didn't face tough competition at the small North Carolina school, Kirby has four average or better pitches, with his low-90s fastball playing as a plus pitch due to his command and extension. Given his size, he could realistically gain fastball velocity with pro instruction. With this profile, we should expect excellent numbers, particularly in the lower levels, where his command and deep arsenal should carry the day. If a couple of his offspeed pitches become plus offerings, Kirby could develop into at least a No. 2 starter. Without any improvements, he could be a No. 4.
More Fantasy News
Plays catch Friday
PSeattle Mariners
Shoulder
March 21, 2025
Kirby (shoulder) played catch with a trainer for a few minutes Friday, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Hopes to start playing catch soon
PSeattle Mariners
Shoulder
March 19, 2025
Kirby (shoulder) hopes to begin playing catch in the next few days, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Recently received injection
PSeattle Mariners
Shoulder
March 13, 2025
Manager Dan Wilson revealed Thursday that Kirby (shoulder) has recently received a biologics injection, and the hope is the right-hander will be able to return to strengthening activities within 3-to-4 days, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Headed to IL with shoulder issue
PSeattle Mariners
Shoulder
March 7, 2025
Kirby has been shut down from throwing due to right shoulder inflammation and will begin the season on the injured list, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Receives $4.3 million from Seattle
PSeattle Mariners
January 9, 2025
The Mariners and Kirby avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $4.3 million contract Thursday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Not untouchable?
PSeattle Mariners
July 20, 2023
Kirby could be included as part of a package for Shohei Ohtani, speculates Jim Bowden of The Athletic.
ANALYSIS
Kirby, a 2019 first-round pick, owns a 3.43 ERA this season and a 3.41 ERA across 43 career starts. His .266 expected batting average is subpar, but he counters that with excellent control that's evidenced by his 2.4 percent walk rate, which is the best mark among all qualifiers. He's a logically desirable target in the context of an Ohtani blockbuster.
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