Kansas Lottery 300
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
Course: Kansas Speedway
Format: Tri-Oval
Laps: 200
Kansas Lottery 300 Preview
After a week off, the Xfinity series returns for the second race of the Round of 12. Aric Almirola took home the race win at Bristol, meaning no driver has clinched a spot in the semifinals. Unsurprisingly, Connor Zilisch is in very strong position and is all but certain to advance, with both Justin Allgaier and Sam Mayer also in strong position. From there, it gets to be fairly wide open, meaning the pressure is on nearly the entire playoff field.
Key Stats at Kansas
- Number of Races: 24
- Winners from Pole: 2
- Winners from top-five starters: 10
- Winners from top-10 starters: 18
Previous 10 Kansas Winners
2024- Aric Almirola
2023 – John Hunter Nemechek
2022- Noah Gragson
2021- Ty Gibbs
2020- Chase Briscoe
2019- Brandon Jones
2018- Brandon Jones
2017- John Hunter Nemechek
2016- Kyle Busch
2015 – Kyle Busch
Kansas has been a mainstay in every NASCAR series from ARCA all the way up through Cup. We've seen some decent parity, as there hasn't been a repeat winner since 2018-2019, no winner from pole since 2016 and only one winner from inside the top five since 2020. Earning a top-10 start is important, but the race is very winnable from there.
NASCAR Xfinity DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Kansas Lottery 300
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Connor Zilisch - $13,000
Austin Hill - $9,700
Jesse Love - $9,500
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Brandon Jones - $9,200
Sheldon Creed - $9,000
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Ryan Sieg - $8,100
Nick Sanchez - $8,000
William Sawalich - $7,700
Christian Eckes - $7,600
Harrison Burton - $7,500
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Dean Thompson - $6,900
Matt DiBenedetto - $6,500
NASCAR Xfinity Picks for the Kansas Lottery 300
Austin Hill - $9,700
Jesse Love - $9,500
Brandon Jones - $9,200
Christian Eckes - $7,600
Harrison Burton - $7,500
Matt DiBenedetto - $6,500
As the tiers illustrate, Kansas isn't a track where the biggest names in the series typically excel. Justin Allgaier has four top-10 finishes in 15 races, but only one has come since 2020. Meanwhile, Sam Mayer's best finish at the track in four attempts is eighth. Zilisch is pretty much always a good choice, but his salary is pretty prohibitive.
That leads us to building through the lower end of Tier 1 and Tier 2.
Hill has qualified inside the top 10 in three straight races at Kansas, finishing no worse than seventh. His price wouldn't indicate he's a player to build around, but his results do. Love has a more limited sample at Kansas, but he finished ninth last season after qualifying seventh and also finished third at Las Vegas in the spring – a very comparable track to Kansas.
Jones did a decent job cashing in on his strong track record at Bristol, logging an 11th-place finish to begin the playoff. He's in a good position to push himself further above the cut line at Kansas. The two wins stand out, but he's finished inside he top six in each of his last three races at this track.
Eckes did well at Kansas in the Truck Series, but more importantly, he's been on fire lately by logging a top-10 finish in six of his last eight races. In that span, he's recorded at least 40 DK points six times.
It's about finding value from there. Burton has had mixed results lately, but has shown the ability to deliver solid results, with three top-10 finishes in his last six races. Burton also finished eighth at Las Vegas this spring.
The sample lineup above was well-rounded, with the vast majority of the roster being built through the middle tiers of pricing. For those who want to roster Zilisch, rostering both DIBenedetto and Thompson would likely be necessary.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Best Bets for the Kansas Lottery 300
Race Winner: Austin Hill (+1000), Brandon Jones (+1100)
Head-to-Head Matchups:
Austin Hill (-105) vs. Sam Mayer (-125)
Sheldon Creed (-120) vs. Sammy Smith (-110)
Connor Zilisch (-130) vs. Justin Allgaier (-105)
A lot of the wagers suggested mirror the conversation in the DFS section, but there are still a few points worth highlighting. Though Hill was my preferred driver to build through for DFS purposes, Jones arguably has more upside, having won at Kansas twice in his career. Jones is my favorite value for race winner.
There are two drivers in the head-to-head matchups we haven't discussed much. The first is Creed, who has a strong track record at Kansas. His recent track record is spottier, but Smith has finished 22nd and 35th during his last two races at Kansas.
The head-to-head matchup is arguably the best way to get exposure to Zilisch. His odds to win the race are at +200 with a top-three finish at -230. In addition to the value from that angle, this isn't Allgaier's best track to challenge Zilisch's recent dominance.
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