2026 NASCAR Draft Kit: Sleepers & Busts

Of all the articles that make up the NASCAR draft kit, this is probably the most important of all. Surprise drivers in both the positive and negative sense can make or break fantasy racing seasons. We all know what Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin can do, so there's little risk associated with those drivers, but it is the drivers that come out of nowhere to have huge seasons can take you to fantasy racing glory. 

Chase Briscoe, Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace and Ryan Preece likely helped many to win their leagues last season. While drivers like Kyle Busch, Daniel Suarez and Ty Gibbs most likely ended your fantasy racing championship hopes by mid-season. Identifying those drivers who will break-out and have career seasons, and those who are headed in the other direction for whatever reason is the key in fantasy racing success. 

Let's take a look at some of the drivers in 2026 that you should make every effort to get, and those who you should avoid at all costs.

2026 NASCAR Sleepers

1. Chase Briscoe             

Car: No. 19

Owner: Joe Gibbs Racing

Manufacturer: Toyota

To say that the move to Joe Gibbs Racing last season was wildly successful would be an understatement. Briscoe exceeded our as well as many other's expectations. He racked up three victories and seven pole positions as well as pressing the 20-Top-10 plateau. It all added up to a run for the championship by the close of 2024. Briscoe would come up short in that attempt but it would be about the only disappointment of his campaign. To say that Briscoe is a true sleeper for 2026 would not be accurate. He'll be on many people's radar screens after that monster season last year in the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. However, we're not convinced that he's hit the high water mark just yet. So, let's call this a continuation of the sleeper story for this driver and team. We believe Briscoe could eclipse the marks he posted in 2024 and build on both the victories and the Top-10 finishes. We should see better consistency and a lower average finish than last year (12.7). Treat Briscoe like an "A" tier driver in your fantasy drafts as that is exactly what he is now.

2. Connor Zilisch            

Car: No. 88

Owner: Trackhouse Racing

Manufacturer: Chevrolet

The racing prodigy promotes from the O'Reilly Series to the NASCAR Cup Series full-time in 2026. Zilisch will also bring crew chief, Randall Burnett, along for the ride. The duo haven't worked together in the past. Burnett comes over from Richard Childress Racing and spending the last three seasons as chief on Kyle Busch's No. 8 Chevrolet. Zilisch won and accomplished just about everything, short of a championship in NASCAR's second series. He would grab 10 victories and eight pole positions along with 23 Top-10 finishes. Only an upset by Jesse Love in the final race of the season would deny Zilisch the crown last season. The young driver has been a monster performer on road circuits and larger ovals alike. The 19-year-old dipped his toes in the water of the Cup Series last season and made just three starts. The best of those efforts would be an eye-catching 11th-place finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Zilisch has loads of talent and Burnett has extensive experience. They should post some surprising numbers in his rookie campaign in the Cup Series. 

3. Shane van Gisbergen           

Car: No. 97

Owner: Trackhouse Racing

Manufacturer: Chevrolet

Van Gisbergen's rookie season would pretty much go according to plan. He'd be super dominant on the road circuits and he'd have his struggles on the ovals. The Kiwi now has 50 starts in NASCAR's top division and the time to learn is now over. While van Gisbergen stacked up road racing wins at Mexico City, Chicago, Sonoma, Watkins Glen and the Charlotte ROVAL, he'd have difficulty being competitive on the non-road circuits. However, the Trackhouse Racing driver begun to show some signs of improvement down the stretch last season. Van Gisbergen would rack up 10th-, 11th- and 14th-place finishes during the playoffs at tracks like Kansas, Talladega and Martinsville. Those were very hopeful signs heading into his second full season in 2026. We don't expect to see him and the No. 97 team slugging it out for Top 10's every week on the ovals, but he'll at least be competitive and respectable in those finishes. It should help boost his overall consistency and fantasy value in the upcoming season. We all know he'll rack up multiple wins on the road tracks, but now he appears to be a Top-15 threat on some of the circuit's ovals. 

4. Ryan Preece           

Car: No. 60

Owner: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing

Manufacturer: Ford

With his move to Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing's new car, Preece gave his flagging Cup Series career the jump start that it needed. Now with well over 200 Cup Series starts to his credit, the journeyman driver was stalling in his development and performance. Preece ended those whispers in 2025 with a 14-Top-10 campaign and his first-ever finish inside the Top 20 in driver points. Preece showed tremendous skill on both short tracks and intermediate ovals. He also registered some good finishes on the road circuits. The 35-year-old driver is not a youngster anymore and he'll continue his quest for his first-ever Cup Series victory in 2026. Preece will once again be paired with crew chief, Derrick Finley, and the two will continue to raise the bar for this race team. Until he can prove that he can win, Preece is likely outside the playoff field. Still, his consistency and excellence on a range of tracks make him a good sleeper play in fantasy leagues. We've yet to see his best racing yet despite his seasoned age.  

5. Tyler Reddick           

Car: No. 45

Owner: 23XI Racing

Manufacturer: Toyota

The 2025 campaign can only be referred to as a "soft patch" season for Reddick and the No. 45 Toyota team. He'd fail to advance deep into the playoffs and he'd post a five-season low in terms of Top-10 finishes. Reddick would also fail to scratch the win column for the season which would snap a three-year winning streak for this talented driver. We believe Reddick and this team will turn things around in 2026. Those who had him rostered in fantasy leagues last season may not have the appetite to buy again, so buy low on this one. Reddick is still the driver who can win two or three races a season and contend for the championship. He produced very hopeful signs down the stretch last year that he was turning the corner in terms of performance. Reddick tallied four of his Top 10's in the playoffs, including a runner-up finish at Darlington. Those indicators bode very well for the upcoming season.

6. Brad Keselowski           

Car: No. 6

Owner: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing

Manufacturer: Ford

The veteran driver has not been a big contender to win races in the last four seasons, but Keselowski still displays a good bit of consistency and competitiveness. The 2025 champaign was a bit of an uneven affair for the No. 6 Ford team, but Keselowski seemingly got it together down the stretch and posted some very memorable finishes. Five of his 13 Top-10 finishes occurred during the 10-race playoffs and included a runner-up finish at Bristol and a runner-up finish at Phoenix in the championship-crowing race. That's a great last look for Keselowski and this race team heading into the short off-season. They should be able to capture and keep that momentum to start the new season. In 2026 we could be looking at the possibility of Keselowski scratching the win column once again, making the playoff field and posting a middle teens figure in terms of Top-10 finishes. We also expect his average finish to improve with better consistency.

2026 NASCAR Busts

1. Kyle Busch             

Car: No. 8

Owner: Richard Childress Racing

Manufacturer: Chevrolet

After an encouraging and successful first season with Richard Childress Racing in 2023, the last two campaigns have been nothing short of utter disappointments. The ability to win races has seemingly evaporated. Busch's consistency and ability to rack up numerous Top 10's is gone. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has missed the last two playoff fields and is searching everywhere for answers. Busch still has one last season to struggle through with Richard Childress Racing before he either moves on elsewhere or decides to retire. At soon-to-be 41-years-old he would seem to be on the cusp of that possible retirement, but it's not known for certain. What we do know is that performance has been painfully bad for one of the best drivers of NASCAR's modern era. We're going to stop short of saying the new generation stock car "killed" Busch's career, but the evidence would seem to back that up. We just know that any expectations of a rebound performance in the upcoming season are not likely to materialize and only frustration and lack of performance for this driver and team are very likely to continue.

2. Ty Gibbs             

Car: No. 54

Owner: Joe Gibbs Racing

Manufacturer: Toyota

"Stuck in neutral" seems to be the best statement to apply to Gibbs. We hate to wave the white flag of surrender on such a young driver (23-years-old) but the 2022 O'Reilly Series champion and 12-time O'Reilly Series winner just doesn't seem to be getting anywhere in his Cup Series development. All the while his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates (Hamlin, Bell and Briscoe) are winning races and contending for championships. There were no hopeful signs down the stretch of last season that indicated the No. 54 team is on the verge of any breakthroughs. Rather, the same inconsistency and puzzling finishes we've seen the last three seasons out of Gibbs. No changes are expected in this team for 2026, including at crew chief (Tyler Allen) so there's little hope of break out for Gibbs. When he elevated from O'Reilly Series champion to the Cup Series in 2023, we had such high hopes for this young driver, but none of those expectations have materialized to this point. It's best to pass Gibbs up in all fantasy racing formats for the upcoming season.

3. Joey Logano            

Car: No. 22

Owner: Penske Racing

Manufacturer: Ford

He's a three-time Cup Series champion, but the trendline for this Penske Racing star is undeniable. It's been a downward track in terms of performance and consistency the last four seasons. The days of racking up multiple wins and 20+ Top-10 finishes would seem to be over. Logano did well to scratch the win column one time in 2025 and he saw his Top 10's stagnate at just 13 for the campaign. The average finish has been slotting between 15 and 17 for Logano so the elite days of average finish around 10-to-12 appear to be gone. Paul Wolfe will once again return as Logano's crew chief in 2026 so there's at least familiarity and team chemistry to a degree.  Still, the lack of performance, wins and consistency have been a caution tag on this team the last three seasons. We don't expect the soon-to-be 36-year-old driver to stage in major reversals in terms of performance this season.

4. Riley Herbst           

Car: No. 35

Owner: 23XI Racing 

Manufacturer: Toyota

The promotion to the Cup Series and full-season rookie campaign for Herbst was a tough affair. The young driver would finish outside the Top 20 in 28 of the 36 events. Herbst would find it difficult to maintain the lead lap most weeks and would register a disappointing 26.4 average finish for the campaign. That would put Herbst a distant 35th-place in the final driver point standings. It's speculated that the young driver is inked to his current Cup Series deal through the 2026 season, so the pressure will be on this year. He's already feeling the heat from young Corey Heim who is a development driver for 23XI and current Truck Series champion. The pressure to maintain this seat and hold off Heim will be almost unbearable for Herbst. The 26-year-old was never what we'd refer to as a "big hitter" in his O'Reilly Series career, winning just 3 of 179 starts. There's a lot on the line with this fledgling team at 23XI and frankly Herbst didn't show much of any improvement down the stretch run last season.

5. Daniel Suarez            

Car: No. 7

Owner: Spire Motorsports

Manufacturer: Chevrolet

The five-season run at Trackhouse Racing has officially come to an end. Suarez parted ways with the team at the conclusion of the 2025 season. He will now switch to Spire Motorsports and look to revive is slowly fading Cup Series career. The five-season trendline at Trackhouse was a diminishing performance line at best. Suarez posted the second-fewest Top 10's of his time there and finished a lowly 29th in the driver standings. It was a forgettable season all the way around. Despite winning two races and making the Cup Series playoffs twice in his time with the team, now the pressure will be on to perform with a more resource-short team in Spire. Suarez will pilot the No. 7 Chevrolet and partner with crew chief Ryan Sparks in the 2026 campaign. This is the same car that Justin Haley struggled to challenge the Top 25 in the driver standings with the last several seasons. A lot of things have to fall into place for this to be a successful transition. We don't believe that's likely. We believe Suarez will have lots of struggles with his new race team in the upcoming season.

6. Cole Custer           

Car: No. 41

Owner: Haas Factory Team

Manufacturer: Chevrolet

The return from the one-year Cup Series hiatus didn't exactly go as planned for Custer and this challenged Haas Factory Team. They collected just 3 Top 10's for the season and finished a distant 32nd-place in the driver standings. Considering this team is what remained of Stewart Haas Racing after it's closure, we suppose this isn't surprising. The new wrinkle for 2026 is that the team is switching from Ford to Chevrolet and that should provide a boost in performance and technical support. However, we can't outrun the statistical resume of Custer. His Cup Series career has not been stellar. 153-career starts in NASCAR's top division have only netted one win and just 15 Top-10 finishes. The best he's ever finished in the driver points is 16th-place and most season's he's been outside the Top 25. There's simply not enough evidence here to support any breakouts for the new season. Sure, the Chevrolet move will probably yield some minor results, but nothing to consider fantasy worthy.