NASCAR Cup Series Championship
Location: Avondale, Ariz.
Course: Phoenix Raceway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 312
Race Preview
William Byron forced his way through the door with an emphatic win last week at Martinsville to join Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe with a shot at racing for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series championship. His victory left just one spot in the title decider to be claimed on points alone, and that honor went to teammate Kyle Larson, who outplaced Christopher Bell in every segment and the race last Sunday, making the finale a Joe Gibbs Racing versus Hendrick Motorsports shootout for the season's biggest prize.
With the four title protagonists set, all focus turns to Phoenix Raceway and the race that will decide who will be this season's champion. This week's title-decider will be the sixth time the series champion will be crowned at Phoenix, and it could also be the last. We already know the 2026 season will conclude at Homestead, and rumors persist that the current championship format is up for a reshuffle next year, too. In any event, this will be the 36th time the Cup Series has raced at Phoenix and the second time this season. Christopher Bell dominated that race in March, earning his third-straight victory as the season got underway. While that may bode well for the JGR Toyota contingent, the team's reliability is in question after a double DNF for Hamlin and Briscoe last week. Both Byron and Larson will be licking their chops and hoping it is they who finish ahead of the other three in Sunday's winner-take-all season finale.
Key Stats at Phoenix Raceway
- Number of races: 58
- Winners from pole: 8
- Winners from top-5 starters: 23
- Winners from top-10 starters: 34
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 4
- Fastest race: 118.132 mph
Previous 10 Phoenix Winners
2025 spring - Christopher Bell
2024 fall - Joey Logano
2024 spring - Christopher Bell
2023 fall - Ross Chastain
2023 spring - William Byron
2022 fall - Joey Logano
2022 spring - Chase Briscoe
2021 fall - Kyle Larson
2021 spring - Martin Truex Jr.
2020 fall - Chase Elliott
Phoenix Raceway is a 1.0-mile oblong oval with relatively little banking in its turns. That lack of banking puts an emphasis on mechanical grip, which drivers can use in various lines throughout the turns. Given mechanical grip is a premium, track position is also important. This is a track where two-tire stops to gain track position are possible, especially with many unexpected cautions. However, with this being the championship race, there typically are fewer yellow flags and long green-flag runs tend to be the expectation. While track position an important aspect of success, qualifying takes on extra significance this week. The winner at Phoenix has started inside the top 15 every race since 2017, and no driver in the current generation of car has won starting deeper than 13th.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $11,500
William Byron - $11,000
Ryan Blaney - $10,700
Chase Briscoe - $10,500
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Joey Logano - $10,000
Chase Elliott - $9,500
Tyler Reddick - $9,300
Ross Chastain - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Josh Berry - $8,500
Chris Buescher - $8,000
Bubba Wallace - $7,700
Alex Bowman - $7,300
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Ryan Preece - $7,000
Ty Gibbs - $6,800
Erik Jones - $6,400
Daniel Suarez - $6,200
NASCAR DFS Picks for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship
William Byron - $11,000
Ross Chastain - $9,000
Josh Berry - $8,500
Chris Buescher - $8,000
Alex Bowman - $7,800
Daniel Suarez - $6,200
Those that compare the four championship contenders' statistics at Phoenix in the current generation of car will find that William Byron (DK $11,000, FD $13,500) stands above the rest. In fact, through the last seven Phoenix races, Byron ranks second among all drivers with an average start of 4.1 and finish of 8.0. In that span he also led 273 laps, more than any of the other three championship drivers, and he won the spring race of 2023. Combining those impressive results with the way that he seized victory last week at Martinsville and it is surprising Byron isn't the highest-priced driver among the final four. Statistics point toward Byron as having the advantage this week.
Ross Chastain (DK $9,000, FD $9,500) also boasts some impressive Phoenix numbers. He is the only driver to have won the season finale while not being a championship contender, which he did in 2023, plus he has five finishes of 11th or better in the seven races at the track run with the current car. Chastain often exceeds expectations at specific tracks, and Phoenix is one of those venues where fantasy players can take advantage of that. For comparison, prior to the introduction of the next gen car in 2022, Chastain's best Phoenix finish was 14th. Since this car's introduction, he has only failed to finish 11th or better twice.
When the Cup Series raced at Phoenix earlier this season there was only one driver that qualified and finished inside the top five, and that was Josh Berry (DK $8,500, FD $8,200). First, he put his No. 21 Ford into the fourth starting spot. He then went on to score stage points in both segments and finished the race fourth. Berry has four series starts at this track and two of those ended in top-10 finishes, including his best result at the track earlier this season. His 10th-place finish last week at Martinsville and runner-up finish at New Hampshire in September (two other flat tracks), suggest Berry could be a top scorer for fantasy rosters again this week.
Chris Buescher (DK $8,000, FD $9,000) is another one that has done quite well for himself at this track recently. His last four Phoenix races were all finishes of ninth or better, and he has five top-10 finishes from the last seven. Compare that with his first 12 races at the track when his best finish was 16th (twice) and you can see that this is a place he has now figured out. In terms of average Phoenix finish from the last seven races, Buescher ranks only behind one of this year's four championship contenders.
Unlike the previous selections, Alex Bowman (DK $7,800, FD $8,000) has less impressive Phoenix statistics. From 20 career starts, he has just three top-10 finishes. However, the most recent of those results came earlier this season when he finished seventh despite starting 32nd. That drive forward in March, plus his role in supporting his two championship contender teammates, could give Bowman a bit more pop at Phoenix this weekend that we typically would see.
Lastly, in his last race with Trackhouse Racing, Daniel Suarez (DK $6,200, FD $6,000) will attempt to exit on a high note before joining Spire Motorsports from 2026 onward. Suarez is a not a pity selection, though. At Phoenix, he has had some good showings. He has four to-10 finishes from 17 career starts and three finishes of 13th or better from the last four. His time may be running out with Trackhouse Racing, but with a new future with Spire ahead of him next season, Suarez still has incentive to close out 2025 with some success.
NASCAR Best Bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:00 PM ET Friday
Race Winner - William Byron +550
Top-Five Finish - Christopher Bell +115
Top-10 Finish - Chris Buescher +115
Driver Matchup - Ross Chastain +100 vs. Joey Logano -140
With a full head of momentum and excellent statistics at Phoenix, William Byron could be poised to grab his first series championship. He won the season opening Daytona 500 and came back from back-to-back finishes outside of the top 20 to win in the final elimination race. Much of the year he spent trying to regain his season opening form, and he may have found his stride again at the perfect moment. With more laps led, a better average start, and better average finish than any other championship contender at Phoenix, Byron should be the statistical favorite. There are two ways wagerers can bet on his this week, too. First, is to take him as the champion, which means he can finish anywhere on Sunday as long as it is ahead of the other three championship combatants. However, more lucrative odds are available for him as the winner. Only once under the current format has the championship finale been won by a driver not among the final four, which means taking Byron as the race winner, with more lucrative odds, is a good path.
A hedge wager many may want to take this week could be Christopher Bell for a top-five finish. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver may not be in the championship battle any longer, but he dominated at this track in the spring and hasn't finished outside of the top five at Phoenix in the last three races. While he will be playing a support role to his two championship-contending teammates, Bell is more than capable of winning this race and taking a spot away from his teammates' competitors. Bell for a top-five finish is a confident option for a hedging wager along with a race-winner pick or as a lower-risk wager on its own.
Chris Buescher for a top-10 finish on Sunday fits a similar mold. The RFK Racing driver has stepped up his game at Phoenix in recent seasons and brings a run of four consecutive top-five finishes from his last four visits into this weekend. Three of those four top-10s were finishes of fifth or better, too. This is a track that Buescher tends to outperform his typical expectations, and positive odds for a finish he has delivered consistently the past few seasons is good value this week.
Another good wager at Phoenix is the matchup between Ross Chastain and Joey Logano. Neither driver is in the championship fight this time, but both have a record of success at Phoenix. The differentiator here is that when Logano is not part of the championship battle, his Phoenix finishes tend to suffer. In each of his two series championships, he scored top finishes including two wins. When not in the championship picture, he tends to finish outside of the top 10, though. Chastain, on the other hand, is the only non-championship contender to have won the finale under the current format, and he has five finishes of 11th or better from all of the last seven Phoenix races, finale or not. In short, Chastain is a more consistent top finisher at this track, which makes him a value option against Logano with positive odds on offer.
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