This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
WUFC 277 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card, which includes two title fights.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including an $800k UFC 277 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. First, let's jump right into the action...
Main Event - Women's Bantamweight Championship
(C) Julianna Pena (12-4-0) v. Amanda Nunes (21-5-0)
DK Salaries: Pena ($7,200), Nunes ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Pena (+210), Nunes (-275)
Odds to Finish: -240
Roughly eight months after stunning the MMA world and defeating Nunes for the UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship, Pena will have to prove the first time wasn't a fluke.
Nunes' performance in the first fight was one of the most baffling things I can ever remember seeing inside the Octagon. She completely disregarded her greatest strengths and engaged Pena in the brawl she was seeking. To make matters worse, Amanda's body language was horrific. She didn't seem the least bit upset about her defeat, although that was certainly not the case. Perhaps Nunes simply didn't know how to react in her first truly competitive fight in many years.
On the flip side, Pena deserves full marks for her performance. She appeared calm and confident and only got stronger as the fight progressed. She certainly wasn't overwhelmed by the moment in what was by far the biggest fight of her career. Julianna has shown more good than bad during her UFC run, but the truth of the matter is that she never defeated a quality opponent prior to her victory over Nunes. She'll be 33 years of age in the middle of August, and I have a difficult time believing she will be able to fight at such a high level moving forward.
To give you an idea how dominant Nunes had been, she had won a dozen fights in a row prior to the Pena defeat, including five straight defenses of her 135-pound title. That stretch included victories over Valentina Shevchenko (twice), Ronda Rousey, Miesha Tate, Germaine de Randamie, Holly Holm and Cris Cyborg.
Maybe I'm completely underrating Pena and will be made to look like a fool, but I'm willing to wager the first fight between the two was nothing more than a massive fluke until proven otherwise. I expect the best version of Nunes we have ever seen and I expect her to win this fight without issue.
I'm not saying Pena won't hang around and show well, but I still believe it's going to take another foolish game plan from Nunes in order for her to pull another upset, and I have a difficult time seeing that happen again. I expect Amanda to overwhelm her with her physicality, which I also said would happen the first time around.
Unless Nunes is completely checked out from a mental standpoint -- and I see no reason why that would be the case -- you should get a dominant, bounce-back effort here.
THE PICK: Nunes
Want to bet on Nunes? SIgn up with the DraftKings promo code and get action in for the fights.
Co-Main Event - Interim UFC Flyweight Championship
Brandon Moreno (19-6-2) v. Kai Kara-France (24-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Moreno ($8,900), Kara-France ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Moreno (-200), Kara-France (+165)
Odds to Finish: +120
This is a rematch of a December 2019 which Moreno won via unanimous decision.
UFC Flyweight Champion Deiveson Figueiredo defeated Moreno for the title this past January, so there is absolutely no reason for the UFC to be booking an interim championship fight a little over six months later, but it gives the company an opportunity to say there are two title bouts on this card.
Moreno's last three fights have been against Figueiredo. The first one was a majority a draw, the second was a submission win for Moreno in which he took Figueriedo's belt, and the final one was a razor-thin unanimous decision win for the Brazilian in which Moreno handed the belt back over. At the start of this trilogy, it was assumed that Figueiredo was the much better fighter, but Moreno has grown by leaps and bounds the past couple years. His stand-up skills are fantastic, he can mix in a takedown and his toughness is legendary. I understand the UFC's hesitancy to book a fourth straight fight between the two, but they aren't going to have a choice if Moreno blows past Kara-France.
If the UFC was truly hell bent on an interim title fight here, Kara-France had to be involved. He's won three straight fights dating back to March 2021, including a win over fellow top contender Askar Askarov this past March in what ended up being a battle for a spot on this card. KKF has about as much pure punching power as any flyweight on the roster, and his striking defense is surprisingly competent for a guy who does his best work in reckless brawls. Kara-France struggles to generate secondary offense, and I don't think he has the all-around skill set to run off a prolonged winning streak against the best the division has to offer, but he's certainly talented enough to pull an upset against a top fighter on any given night.
I can't stress how much Moreno has improved since the first fight between the two. He won that bout fairly handily and he's seemingly twice the fighter now that he was then.
Kara-France needs to remain aggressive and hope his power in the difference, but Moreno's durability has been so impressive that it's impossible to pick KKF outright. That said, his price tag is pretty low, so he makes for a decent punt DK in hopes he can get to that previously-mentioned power consistently throughout the course of the bout. I still think Moreno wins.
THE PICK: Moreno
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis (26-9-0, 1NC) v. Sergei Pavlovich (15-1-0)
DK Salaries: Lewis ($8,000), Pavlovich ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Lewis (-105), Pavlovich (-115)
Odds to Finish: -600
Lewis remains one of the most popular fighters in the entire company, and that isn't going to change. He holds the record for most knockout victories in UFC history with 13, and he'll continue to get high-profile fights such as this one on the main card of a pay-per-view despite the fact he turned 37 years of age in early February and has been finished in two of his past three bouts.
Pavlovich was knocked out by Alistair Overeem in just over four minutes in his UFC debut in November 2018, but has since rebounded with three straight knockout wins of his own over Shamil Abdurakhimov, Maurice Greene and someone named Marcelo Golm (now with Bellator), who apparently fought four times for the UFC from October 2017 to April 2019. It goes without saying that Lewis is by far the greatest threat Pavlovich has faced to date.
Lewis' offensive arsenal hasn't changed. His conditioning is better now than it was early in his time with the company, but he's still a one-dimensional brawler who needs to stop his opponent via strikes in order to be successful. Lewis got Tai Tuivasa to the mat twice in his last fight, but that's a rare occurrence for "The Black Beast."
There's little doubt how this one is going to play out. Lewis and Pavlovich -- who have combined for 38 knockouts in their 51 combined career victories -- are going to throw bombs at each other, and the winner is going to be the man who is able to remain upright.
Lewis' recent losses to Tuivasa and Ciryl Gane are concerning. If his durability is starting to wane even a little bit, he's in big, big trouble. Pavlovich is also nearly seven years younger, and there's major value in that when you take into consideration the style of fighting which each man employs.
Everything seems correct here from a DraftKings salary and Vegas line perspective. This fight is essentially a pick 'em, as you have the experienced, popular Lewis fighting in his native Texas against the younger, likely more talented, Pavlovich.
I don't have a great feel for this fight either way, but those previously mentioned knockout defeats Lewis suffered at the hands of Tuivasa and Gane concern me enough to take Pavlovich in a coin flip. It's probably a good idea to work one of these guys into your DK lineup because the fight is obviously extremely unlikely to see the final bell.
THE PICK: Pavlovich
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja (24-5-0) v. Alex Perez (24-6-0)
DK Salaries: Pantoja ($8,700), Perez ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Pantoja (-165), Perez (+135)
Odds to Finish: +100
Perez was gifted a shot at the UFC Flyweight Championship against Deiveson Figueiredo in December 2020 after Cody Garbrandt was forced to withdraw, at which point Perez was submitted in 117 seconds. He hasn't fought since despite having multiple bouts scheduled during the layoff. Perez won't be 31 years of age until next March, so he should have some gas left in the tank, but his past struggles against higher-end competition make it unlikely he will ever threaten the title picture again.
In many respects, Pantoja finds himself in a similar situation. He is 6-2 in his past eight bouts dating back to May 2018, including a unanimous decision win over former champion Brandon Moreno, but the two setbacks in that stretch came against Figueiredo and Askarov, two of the best fighters in the division. Pantoja is already 32 years old, so he would appear to have a little less runway ahead of him than Perez despite being the more effective fighter of late.
I've long been impressed with Pantoja's all-around game. He has eight career wins via knockout and nine via submission. He's tough and durable. Perez is a volume guy on the feet, although he does a pretty good job of defending himself in the stand-up. His biggest flaw in the past has been poor submission defense, which is a potential issue against Pantoja.
Both men frequently implement their wrestling games. Pantoja averages 1.26 takedowns per 15 minutes while Perez is all the way up at 2.92 per 15 minutes. Pantoja better sell out to stop the takedown because his 67-percent clip of defending them is mediocre, and Perez is physical enough to pin him to that mat for long stretches at a time.
Both of these guys are good, but there appears to be a clear gap between Figueiredo, Moreno and everyone else in the division. The winner is going to find himself in pretty good shape because of the lack of depth at flyweight, while the loser is in serious trouble.
I'm not crazy about either man from a DK perspective and could certainly see a path to victory for Perez with his wrestling, but the layoff is enough to swing me to Pantoja's side.
THE PICK: Pantoja
Light Heavyweight
Magomed Ankalaev (17-1-0) v. Anthony Smith (36-16-0)
DK Salaries: Ankalaev ($9,400), Smith ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Ankalaev (-500), Smith (+360)
Odds to Finish: -120
Smith won six of seven fights from December 2016 to October 2018 to earn a shot at then-champion Jon Jones. He was predictably routed and went on to lose three of his next four before straightening things out and winning his past three bouts, all via stoppage, over Ryan Spann, Jimmy Crute and Devin Clark. Smith has seen and done it all in this sport. He has more than 50 professional fights under his belt and will be turning 34 years of age just four days before this event takes place. I have a hard time seeing Smith hanging in their against top-flight competition at 205 pounds moving forward considering all the wars he has been in over the years, but Smith has surprised us before on more than one occasion.
Clearly upset with his submission defeat to Paul Craig with one second on the clock in his UFC debut in March 2018, Ankalaev has gone on to win his past eight fights, including four via knockout and a main event unanimous decision victory in his most recent bout against Thiago Santos this past March. The power is obviously legitimate, but Ankalaev isn't a reckless brawler. He's surprisingly competent in terms of his striking defense, and he does a nice job of picking his spots and not going for broke offensively. The top of the 205-pound division is thin, and Ankalaev has long-term staying power considering he turned just 30 years of age this past June.
Smith is one of my favorite fighters to watch, but this seems like a bad matchup for him. Assuming most of the bout is contested on the feet, Smith's lone advantage is that he has a one-inch edge in both the height and reach department. All the damage he has absorbed over the years certainly isn't a positive, nor is facing an heavy-handed opponent like Ankalaev.
I'd like to see Ankalaev defeat a true top-flight light heavyweight before I buy in completely, but he's an easy pick here considering what we have seen from both men of late. I'm less enthused about the DK cost, as Smith has proven to be a difficult opponent on countless occasions and Magomed isn't a high-volume striker. I'd probably rather roll the dice on Smith as a punt play.
THE PICK: Ankalaev
Other Bouts
To see how the recommendations featured in this article work in conjunction with other DFS plays, select your favorite fighters in the DraftKings MMA Lineup Optimizer.
Welterweight
Alex Morono (21-7-0, 1NC) v. Matthew Semelsberger (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Morono ($7,600), Semelsberger ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Morono (+135), Semelsberger (-165)
Odds to Finish: +120
THE PICK: Morono
Lightweight
Drew Dober (24-11-0, 1NC) v. Rafael Alves (20-10-0)
DK Salaries: Dober ($9.000), Alves ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Dober (-225), Alves (+185)
Odds to Finish: -170
THE PICK: Dober
Heavyweight
Don'Tale Mayes (9-4-0) v. Hamdy Abdelwahab (5-0-0)
DK Salaries: Mayes ($7,500), Abdelwahab ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Mayes (-140), Abdelwahab (+115)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Abdelwahab
Lightweight
Drakkar Klose (12-2-1) v. Rafa Garcia (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Klose ($9,100), Garcia ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Klose (-250), Garcia (+190)
Odds to Finish: +155
THE PICK: Klose
Welterweight
Michael Morales (13-0-0) v. Adam Fugitt (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Morales ($9,500), Fugitt ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Morales (-650), Fugitt (+425)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Morales
Women's Bantamweight
Joselyne Edwards (11-4-0) v. Ji Yeon Kim (9-5-2)
DK Salaries: Edwards ($8,300), Kim ($7,900)
DK Salaries: Edwards (-145), Kim (+120)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Edwards
Light Heavyweight
Nicolae Negumereanu (12-1-0) v. Ihor Potieria (19-2-0)
DK Salaries: Negumereanu ($7,800), Potieria ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Negumereanu (+110), Potieria (-135)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Potieria
Welterweight
Orion Cosce (7-1-0) v. Mike Mathetha aka "Blood Diamond" (3-1-0)
DK Salaries: Cosce ($8,800), Mathetha ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Cosce (-175), Mathetha (+150)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Cosce
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 277 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
