Top Picks and Predictions for UFC 323, Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
The UFC is back with its final PPV of the year, which features two title fights atop a 14-bout slate. We'll take a look at every fight across three platforms, including a prospect looking to make a statement against a legend of the sport, and a big puncher who will need to stop a dominant wrestling attack. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Merab Dvalishvili ($9,500)
Petr Yan handled individual phases of the fight in his first matchup with Merab well, but "No Mercy" was unable to keep up with the pace of "The Machine," which resulted in the bantamweight champion easily pulling ahead in the later rounds. Yan's style has always been built on taking things slow and building into a fight, which will likely always fall short in the face of Merab's unrelenting pressure.
Alexandre Pantoja ($9,000)
Brandon Moreno had so much success boxing with Pantoja that it's easy to imagine a fighter like Van will be able to score with jabs and counter punches. Add in the fact that "The Fearless" sports an 81 percent takedown defense rate, and an endorsement of the underdog starts to look very appealing. However, Van's boxing-heavy style makes him vulnerable to leg kicks, and Pantoja is one of the best calf kickers in the sport. When we also consider that "The Cannibal" will be the rare fighter who can put Van on his back foot, the equation starts to tilt in favor of the champion. If he can survive the early rounds, Van may be able to take the fight from a depleted Pantoja late, but the flyweight champion knows exactly the kind of scrap this needs to be for him to win it.
Brandon Moreno ($7,700)
We spoke a bit about Moreno's boxing skills earlier, which should easily best Tatsuro Taira's stiffer striking approach. We have also never seen anyone soundly outgrapple the former flyweight champion, which means he could exhaust Taira in scrambles before taking control of the bout. The fact that this is a three-round fight leaves less opportunity to play the long game, but Moreno should have the overall skills to take home the victory.
Jan Blachowicz ($8,400)
Blachowicz represents such a significant step up for Bogdan Guskov that I am surprised to see him as a relatively slight favorite. While he has been victorious in just one of his last five fights, "Polish Power" has been competitive in most of those fights, which include a draw and a split-decision loss to champion Alex Pereira. Jan will make Guskov fight at a pace far slower than the Uzbek fighter is accustomed. Jan should also be able to eat up Guskov's calf with kicks and meet him with counter shots on the way in.
Chris Duncan ($8,600)
Terrance McKinney is fast and powerful enough to get his share of wins, but the breakneck pace at which he fights will make it hard for me to pick him against opponents who can weather a storm. We saw how well Duncan took shots against a powerful striker in Mateusz Rebecki, and his ability to scramble and find submissions on the ground should mean that "T-Wrecks" won't be able to use his wrestling as an escape hatch.
Maycee Barber ($8,700)
It has become increasingly clear that Karine Silva will struggle against opponents she cannot cleanly outwrestle. Barber has always been strong for the weight class and should be able to use her frame to keep distance and land strikes.
Nazim Sadykhov ($7,900)
I've sung the praises of Sadykhov before as an agile wrestler/boxer whose ability to slip and counter makes him extremely dangerous. Fares Ziam has the height and reach to make his strikes count, but I like Sadykhov to use his movement to get on the inside and do the better work offensively.
Brunno Ferreira ($8,000)
Marvin Vettori has looked particularly slow to engage in his last few fights, which makes me wonder how he will deal with the power and aggression of Ferreira. "The Italian Dream" is notoriously hard to hurt, which could present issues for a fighter like Brunno, who doesn't spend much time outside of Round 1. Still, I don't think Vettori will do enough over the course of three rounds to take a decision.
Iwo Baraniewski ($8,800)
We were introduced to Baraniewski via a quick knockout on the Contender Series, but I believe the Polish fighter will go back to his roots as a Judoka against Ibo Aslan, who was taken down twice in four attempts by the only committed wrestler he has ever faced in Ion Cutelaba. Aslan came out looking hesitant in his last fight against Billy Elekana, which would be a recipe for ruin against someone who starts as fast as Iwo.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Edson Barboza OVER 29.5 Significant Strikes, Mairon Santos OVER 47.5 Significant Strikes, and Antonio Trocoli OVER 10.5 Significant Strikes
I can only imagine that the linemakers expect Barboza to be finished quickly, but "Junior" has never been easy to put away and should be able to find success with leg kicks. Jalin Turner will enter this fight with a significant height advantage, but "The Tarantula" was all but retired, citing a lack of passion for the sport, so it's difficult to predict the kind of showing we will get from him here.
Santos is an expert at keeping distance and landing strikes from his Muay Thai base. Muhammadjon Naimov will look to wrestle where he can, but he gets backed to the fence too readily to control skilled fighters with his grappling.
Trocoli and Mansur Abdul-Malik are both grapple-first fighters. We have seen this dynamic lead to a striking battle before, and Trocoli's three-inch height advantage should ensure that this fight stays at range initially.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props too
Bets to Consider
Payton Talbott Wins via KO/TKO (+300)
Henry Cejudo revitalized his career by using a movement-heavy style that allowed him to surprise opponents with strikes. Now 38 years old, "The Messenger" has become completely flatfooted in the pocket, which allowed a fighter like Yadong Song to beat him to the punch consistently before an eye poke stopped the fight in Round 3. Talbott will be much faster than the former triple champion, and we saw the 27-year-old stop 12 of 15 takedown attempts from a very physically strong fighter in Felipe Lima.
Manuel Torres Wins via KO/TKO (+290)
As with most Grant Dawson fights, the only real decision we need to make is whether he will be able to work his blanket wrestling, or if his opponent can keep it standing long enough to knock him out. I'm betting on the latter here, as Torres holds an 88 percent takedown defense rate, dictates range with pressure, and throws crisp punches down the middle with power, the same kinds of shots that felled Dawson against King Green.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 323 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
