This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM
Purse: $8.7M
Winner's Share: $1.556M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Pebble Beach, Calif.
Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill GC, Monterey Peninsula CC
Yardage: 6,972 (Pebble)
Par: 72
2021 champion: Daniel Berger
Tournament Preview
For better or worse, it's hard not to begin writing about this year's Pebble Beach golf tournament without mentioning another tournament to be played concurrently half a world away: the Saudi International. The venerable PGA Tour event, now 85 years old and already beset by weak fields in recent years, became caught in the crossfire in a battle between the PGA Tour and Saudi Golf.
The controversy-laden Middle East nation has been offering oodles of cash to lure top PGA Tour players to its event the past few years, and it now has upped the ante -- literally and figuratively -- amid a grander plan to create a worldwide super golf league for elite players. The European Tour ended its relationship with the tournament, but the Asian Tour quickly opened its arms, in exchange for more oodles of cash.
The PGA Tour could've taken a strong stand in trying to prevent its players from competing in the tournament, but it in effect caved, freeing up everyone who wanted to go in return for their promise to play Pebble Beach once or twice in the near future.
So Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson -- both Pebble Beach staples with multiple wins there through the years -- plus Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, Bubba Watson and others will compete in Saudi Arabia, leaving Pebble Beach largely with crumbs.
Yes, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, defending champion Daniel Berger, Justin Rose and Matt Fitzpatrick constitute a decent top tier of golfers heading to the Monterey Peninsula, but after that the 156-man field falls hard and fast. There are just nine of the top 50 in the world rankings on hand. Two years ago, there were 11. Last year, which gets an asterisk because of the pandemic, there were just five and the strength-of-field rating was a John-Deere-like 141, Pebble's weakest field going back to at least 1986, which is when the OWGR era began. The expanded pro-am portion of the event was canceled, but that will be back this year, as will the three-course rotation and the 54-hole cut of 60 and ties. The strength-of-field rating this year is 206, which is the exact number it was in 2020 and roughly puts it on par with the likes of the Fortinet Championship and 3M Open. Neither has the rich history and importance that Pebble has with the PGA Tour.
The tournament has been around since Bing Crosby got the ol' Clambake going at Rancho Santa Fe outside San Diego in 1937 and Sam Snead came away with the $500 first-place check. It moved to the Monterey Peninsula in 1947 -- 75 years ago. Pebble Beach unquestionably would have a spot if there were a Mount Rushmore of golf courses, and blue-chip AT&T is the second-longest-tenured title sponsor on Tour, since 1986.
But as we see, that doesn't attract the golfers. Many can't stand the three or even four days of six-hour slogs in pro-am play. On top of that, the weather is often dicey, though that doesn't appear to be the case this year.
Anyway, let's get on with the task at hand here. With the pro-am back this year, so too is Monterey Peninsula CC (6,957, par-71) to provide a three-course rotation, along with SpyGlass Hill (7,041, par-72) and Pebble, all three with the confounding poa annua greens. The golfers and their amateur partners will play each track once before the top-60 pros and ties, and the top-25 amateur teams, all land on Pebble on Sunday. For such a short course with wide fairways, Pebble Beach surely has some teeth and the potential to be a bear. Two years ago, it played especially tough as the eighth-hardest track on Tour. Incredibly, four holes were among the 50 hardest on Tour. In order: the 202-yard 12th, the 504-yard 9th, the 428-yard 8th and 195-yard 5th. That doesn't include two of the harder par-5s on Tour. We're talking about the 580-yard 14th and the picturesque 543-yard 18th. What makes such a short course so hard? For one, the greens are the smallest the golfers will see all year, averaging 3,500 square feet, almost half the size of the Tour average. That calls for highly accurate iron play and, barring that, great scrambling. Those tiny poa are also well protected by bunkers, with almost 120 total on the course. Last year, Pebble Beach ranked more middle of the pack, 29th hardest of 51 courses, and it was Spyglass that was tough (11th).
With a 54-hole cut, the same as two weeks ago at The American Express, lineup construction could take a little bit different approach. A golfer missing the cut costs you only 18 holes instead of 36, and risk taking will be just a little less risky this week. With so few top names in the field, most of them will be highly owned.
Weather-wise, there will be some chilly mornings in the 40s with high temperatures not far above 60. But there is almost no chance of rain and the wind is forecast to be light.
Fun Pebble Beach Celebrity Factoids: Besides the usual bunch of bold-faced names, including Bill Murray, Ray Romano, Darius Rucker and Jake Owen, notables taking part this year include Josh Allen, Mookie Betts and Mia Hamm.
Key Stats to Winning at Pebble Beach
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approach From 125-150 yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Driving Accuracy/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Past Champions
2021 - Daniel Berger
2020 - Nick Taylor
2019 - Phil Mickelson
2018 - Ted Potter Jr.
2017 - Jordan Spieth
2016 - Vaughn Taylor
2015 - Brandt Snedeker
2014 - Jimmy Walker
2013 - Brandt Snedeker
2012 - Phil Mickelson
Champion's Profile
Pebble Beach is a second-shot golf course. Getting on the green is always harder when the greens are small, so superior wedge play is paramount -- both from the fairway and around the greens. For seven years running, no winner was in the top-20 in driving distance until last year with Berger (eighth). He won at 18-under by eagling the 18th to beat Maverick McNealy by two, both Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth by three and Paul Casey by four (a leaderboard dominated by the top guys). Berger ranked third in greens in regulation, sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach, 11th in SG: Around-the-Green, second in SG: Tee-to-Green and 18th in SG: Putting. McNealy ranked T3 in GIR, Cantlay was T1, Spieth was T16 and Casey was T7. Clearly, GIR was critical. Two years ago, Nick Taylor ran away to win by four over Kevin Streelman, and that's understandable when knowing he ranked third in GIR and second in SG: Putting. Berger became the ninth straight Pebble winner to fall between 17- and 22-under. Lastly, and perhaps it's coincidence more than anything else, there have been only two non-U.S. winners of this tournament since 1965. For what it's worth, Graeme McDowell did win the U.S. Open at Pebble in 2010. The over/under for the winning score, as determined by golfodds.com, was set at 267.5 -- 19.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Patrick Cantlay - $11,200 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +650)
Cantlay is just such a model of consistency that he's approaching Jon Rahm territory. He finished top-10 in his two starts in 2022 plus his last two of 2021, both of them wins at the BMW and TOUR Championships (with an asterisk). He finished top-25 in 10 of his past 11 starts. Cantlay was third here last year and 11th the year before. Currently, he leads the Tour in greens in regulation.
Daniel Berger - $10,500 (+900)
Speaking of consistency ... Berger is the defending champion, after finishing fifth the year before, after finishing 10th in his previous visit. He's been top-25 in only 10 of his past 14 starts dating to last year. Berger is ranked third on Tour on approaches from 125-150 yards.
Jason Day - $9,900 (+1800)
Speaking of consistency ... Day finished top-5 here five of the past seven years, and the two "down" years he finished seventh and 11th. Keep in mind that a few of those results came while he was playing poorly just about everywhere else. And now he is coming off a near-miss last week at Torrey Pines, where he tied for third.
Maverick McNealy - $9,800 (+2200)
The Northern California native finished runner-up here last year and fifth the year before. He was having a great week at Torrey Pines until plummeting Sunday, but even then he left feeling pretty good after closing birdie-eagle. McNealy is third on Tour in eagles. He's ranked 28th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and top-50 in putting.
Tier 2 Values
Seamus Power - $9,400 (+2200)
We keep waiting for a bad week from Power ... and waiting. He was off last week following three straight top-15s to start the year, highlighted by a T3 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He also closed 2021 with a top-five at the RSM. Power has been a late bloomer at age 34, but he is ranked among the top 50 of the OWGR, and deservedly so. He's never done better than 38th in four trips to Pebble Beach, but he's a different golfer now.
Kevin Streelman - $9,100 (+4000)
Streelman is 43, but that's no reason to veer away from a guy who has finished top-20 here six years running, with three of those results being top-10s. He is part of Pebble Beach lore along with pro-am partner Larry Fitzgerald. Streelman is still ranked a more-than-respectable 85th in the world, and he's made 10 of his past 12 cuts, including last week at Torrey Pines.
Tom Hoge - $8,500 (+6000)
Hoge came here six years in a row and couldn't so much as crack the top 35 -- until last year, when he tied for 12th. We've seen marked improvement from the 32-year-old over the past six months. He is ranked sixth on Tour in SG: Approach and 19th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Mackenzie Hughes - $8,400 (+5000)
Hughes finished 10th in his Pebble Beach debut in 2017 but then missed the cut the next three years -- which makes no sense. His superior short game is made for tracks like Pebble. Hughes is ranked top-20 on Tour in both SG: Around-the-Green and Putting, and even his GIR numbers are better than average, as he's ranked 51st. Hughes got a late start to 2022, arriving just last week. He missed the cut at Torrey Pines, but it was good for him to shake off the rust.
Tier 3 Values
Russell Knox - $7,800 (+8000)
Course history matters everywhere, but in this event more than others. Because included in a player's track record here are the potential for bad weather and the elongated pro-am. You have to embrace it all or it's not going to be good week. Knox takes to it. He was 15th in 2018 and 14th and 2019. He also finished seventh last year, though there wasn't the three-day pro-am nor fans. Knox is a short hitter who won't get penalized for that at Pebble. He is ranked 30th on Tour in approaches from 125 to 150 yards. He tied for seventh a few weeks back at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
Matt Kuchar - $7,600 (+6000)
Kuchar is far from being a top-25 golfer these days, now ranked 117th. But he still can compete on certain tracks, and the shorter the better. He's actually a perfect 5-for-5 in made cuts so far this season and has notched both a top-25 and a top-10. His short game is still pretty good, as he's ranked fifth in SG: Around-the-Green and 25th in SG: Putting. Kuchar made his past three cuts at Pebble.
Chez Reavie - $7,400 (+6500)
Pebble Beach is a place where short hitters come to thrive. Reavie is a good example. He sits outside the top 200 in driving distance, but he's made four straight cuts here, with three of them ending up in top-25s. Reavie is coming off a made cut last week at the uber-long Farmers event.
Scott Piercy - $7,100 (+13000)
At 43, Piercy's best days seem to be behind him, but he doesn't miss many cuts and he still can deliver in weaker fields. He's made five straight cuts here, three of them resulting in top-20s. The best part of his game is his wedge play, and he's ranked 63rd on Tour in SG: Around-the-Green. That counts for a lot this week.
Long-Shot Values
Joseph Bramlett - $7,000 (+13000)
The long-driving, poor-putting Bramlett seems like the prototypical guy to avoid this week. But we went with him last year at $6,700 and he made the cut. He tied for 18th the year before. So far in 2022, Bramlett is 3-for-3 in made cuts. His putting is still woeful, but he's ranked about 50th in GIR and top-75 in SG: Tee-to-Green, plus 33rd in approach from 125-150, which should be enough to get him to Sunday, and maybe more.
Vaughn Taylor - $7,000 (+20000)
Fun fact: Taylor is only the fifth-highest-ranked Taylor in the OWGR database. Well, that might not be much fun for him, but this Tour stop usually is. Ranked in the 400s and returning from a rib injury that derailed much of his 2021 season, Taylor is healthy and made the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii a few weeks back. He won this tournament in 2016 and, after some missed cuts, tied for 21st last year.
Mark Hubbard - $6,700 (+15000)
Hubbard is one of the absolute shortest hitters on Tour, ranking 209th at barely 280 yards off the tee. But that doesn't matter this week, and the rest of Hubbard's game is not that bad. He's ranked 71st on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green, thanks in large part to his elite scrambling -- he's ranked seventh. And he's a better-than-average putter. Hubbard made the cut in three of his past four visits to Pebble Beach, including last year.
Alex Cejka - $6,400 (+40000)
Cejka doesn't play much on the PGA Tour. In fact, now that he's 51, he's on the Champions Tour. But he returns to Pebble Beach year after year -- except last year -- and this will be his 17th visit. He made the cut in six of his last seven tries. He's not even close to being the oldest guy in the field, with the likes of Davis Love III, Tom Lehman and Peter Jacobsen also competing.
