This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
In past installments, we've looked at the fact that the running back position seems to be one of the most reliable in NFL DFS when it comes to predictability, as starting tailbacks are fairly straightforward to project in terms of workload they'll receive, with only an aberrant game flow sometimes interfering.
However, what of teams with quarterbacks who also have a well-established ground game themselves? What is the net effect of these players on their backfield mates, and to what extent do they cut into a back's overall fantasy value? Additionally, are all running quarterbacks of a certain caliber capable of exerting the same influence?
Let's examine this rather pertinent aspect of making daily fantasy football lineup decisions a bit more in depth:
The Effect of Last Season's Top Running QBs
A look at certain 2015 red-zone stats can help us drill down on exactly how much scoring opportunity a running quarterback can vulture from the running backs on their team. However, what bar should we utilize to define such a player, and what exact metrics are best to hone in on to gauge their overall effect?
For the purpose of defining a "running quarterback," we'll set the bar at 500 rushing yards for the season. While the 500-yard benchmark breaks down to about 31 yards per game, only three quarterbacks league-wide managed to eclipse that number in 2015: Cam Newton, Tyrod Taylor and Russell Wilson.
While Taylor and Wilson rushed for 568 and 553 yards, respectively, they also combined for only five touchdowns, with four of those coming from Taylor. They didn't eat into an inordinate amount of their running back's end-zone opportunities as a result, as the Bills rushed to pay dirt a total of 19 times, while the Seahawks crossed the goal line 10 times on the ground.
Both signal-callers did have plenty of touches in the red zone, despite the modest touchdown output between them. Taylor carried the ball 14 times inside the 20, while Wilson garnered 11 red-zone totes. However, when it came down to having their hands on the ball in a rushing capacity near the shadow of the goalposts, it was a decidedly different story, with both quarterbacks each only carrying it once inside the five-yard line.
Newton's Impact
It was a vastly different scenario with Newton, who, as was often the case last season, was in a class all of his own.
The 2015 MVP led all quarterbacks in rushing with 636 yards and a whopping 10 touchdowns on the ground last season. He amassed a total of 30 red-zone rushes (easily a league high among quarterbacks), while matching Panthers' main running back Jonathan Stewart in red-zone attempts inside the 10-yard line (18), and actually totaling one more carry inside the five-yard line (10).
Therefore, all but two of Newton's red-zone carries came from within a high-to-very-high-percentage distance from the goal line.
In fact, Newton was such an integral part of the team's red-zone ground attack, he was the only quarterback in the NFL to see double-digit carries inside both the 10 and five-yard lines. Therefore, even though Stewart outpaced Newton in overall red-zone rushes (47 to 30), he actually carried it one fewer time (28 to 27) than Newton from the 10-yard line and closer, a factor in Stewart scoring just a modest six rushing touchdowns.
The take-away here is that clearly, Newton ate into Stewart's production and opportunities as the most prolific rushing quarterback in the league. Not only did he post a league-high rushing total, but more importantly, he received an abundance of red-zone opportunities, especially from inside the 10-yard line. In fact, Newton easily doubled the attempts that his pair of fellow 500-yard rushers at the position amassed in that area of the field.
Meanwhile, Wilson and Taylor, despite their elevated rushing totals, didn't necessarily relegate their team's array of backs to secondary status, and didn't rob them of many scoring chances either. Both the Bills and Seahawks saw their main ball carriers heading into the season, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch, miss time with injuries, so their involvement was naturally reduced overall. However, each of the two teams' entire collection of rushers still accounted for over 75 percent of their yards on the ground, a total that shows an inevitably reduced degree of involvement given the mobility of the quarterbacks, but a considerable one nonetheless.
The Other End of the Spectrum
Conversely, three of the top four running backs in terms of touchdowns, DraftKings and FanDuel points (Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson and DeAngelo Williams) all had quarterbacks that weren't particularly known for their mobility and/or didn't see much work on the ground in the red zone.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan was a complete non-factor on the ground near the end zone, with only two red-zone rushes all year, including none from within 10 yards. Freeman tied Peterson and Williams for the league-lead in rushing scores with 11, and he received a league-leading 49 carries in the red zone, with 35 of those coming from 10 yards and in.
The Vikings' Teddy Bridgewater was more of a presence inside the 20, with a total of nine rushing attempts and three rushing touchdowns, but Peterson still tied for the league-lead in rushing scores (11) and was right behind Freeman with 47 red-zone rushing opportunities overall. While Bridgewater was easily the most mobile of the three quarterbacks, the Vikings' run-heavy attack also played a part in ensuring Peterson got his full load of opportunities despite some modest red-zone involvement on the part of his quarterback.
Finally, Williams was the third 11-touchdown rusher of 2015, while also tying Peterson with 47 carries inside the 20. A whopping 44 of those came within the 10-yard line, as Williams was the unequivocal top choice near the goal line for Pittsburgh last season. Much like Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger was a non-factor on the ground near the end zone, matching the former's two rushes in the red zone, though he played in only 12 games.
A Bad Rap Debunked
In summary, a look at last season's stats indicates that a quarterback with above-average mobility is not necessarily the death-knell for a team's running back's daily fantasy prospects that some may think. While the cases of Freeman, Peterson and Williams all illustrate that it certainly helps to not have to share any potential rushing opportunities near the goal line with a mobile quarterback, those scenarios aren't necessarily the only ones in which a back can pay off handsomely in NFL DFS.
In fact, as the data illustrates, Newton is the only current player that may really be a substantive factor in his running back's production, given his unique role and skill set.
