Andrew Painter

Andrew Painter

22-Year-Old PitcherRP
Philadelphia Phillies AAA
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Prior to the Arizona Fall League, Painter hadn't pitched since 2022 due to July 2023 Tommy John surgery, yet he led qualified AFL pitchers in ERA and WHIP heading into the final week of play. He used all four of his plus pitches this fall, with his four-seam fastball up to 99 mph and averaging 97 mph. His stuff is all the way back, and so is his control (two walks in 13 IP), which was a big part of what made Painter such a special prospect before surgery. Painter will be eased into things at Triple-A and the team has mentioned July as a target for when he could join the big-league rotation. He threw 103.2 innings in 2022, and will finish with just under 20 innings this fall, so a capped, unpredictable workload is the main drawback with the 21-year-old righty in redraft leagues. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#356
ADP
$Signed a $3.9 million contract with the Phillies in July of 2021.
Unlikely to debut in first half
PPhiladelphia Phillies  AAA
June 2, 2025
Phillies manager Rob Thomson indicated recently that it's unlikely Painter will make his major-league debut prior to the All-Star break, Paul Casella of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Thomson also hinted that the club plans to give Painter some rest around the All-Star break as part of his workload management in his first season back in action following Tommy John surgery. The right-hander might make his MLB debut shortly after that during the Phillies' homestand that runs from July 18 to 23, although that's not written in ink. Painter's last four starts have been at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, and he's posted a 2.65 ERA and 20:7 K:BB over 17 innings in those outings. The 22-year-old went five frames in his last start and is slated to pitch into the sixth inning his next time on the bump.
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Pitching Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Minor League Left/Right Pitching Splits (AAA)
Since 2023
 
 
-38%
BAA vs RHP
2025
 
 
-38%
BAA vs RHP
2024
No Stats
2023
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .276 35 9 5 8 3 0 0
Since 2023vs Right .171 37 11 2 6 1 1 1
2025vs Left .276 35 9 5 8 3 0 0
2025vs Right .171 37 11 2 6 1 1 1
2024vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Andrew Painter See More
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
Painter seemingly had a chance to spend most of his age-20 season in the Phillies' rotation, but his elbow started barking early in spring training and he ended up getting Tommy John surgery in late-July after months of attempted rehab. At the time of his initial early-March injury, Painter was arguably the game's best pitching prospect, and he could regain that title once he's fully healthy. However, given the time of the surgery, it seems highly unlikely he makes his big-league debut until 2025. He could make some rehab starts in late-2024 and could potentially pitch in the Arizona Fall League. Painter will still be just 22 for the 2025 season, so he's not behind schedule. It's roughly a 90 percent success rate for pitchers Painter's age who need the surgery, and there were no skill-related concerns with the 6-foot-7 righty the last time we saw him healthy. He has frontline upside long term.
Painter, a lean 6-foot-7 righty whom the Phillies selected out of high school with the No. 13 overall pick in 2021, dominated Single-A hitters (35.6 K-BB%) across nine starts to open his first full season. It was noteworthy, but many pitchers with command of complete arsenals (four pitches led by 70-grade upper-90s fastball and plus slider) cruise through that level of the minors. However, prospectors really started taking notice when Painter didn't skip a beat after promotions to High-A and Double-A. His walk rate actually fell from 10.7% at Single-A to 4.9% at High-A and 1.8% in 28.1 innings at Double-A while his strikeout rate remained above 33%. He led qualified minor-league starters in WHIP and K-BB% and ranked second in ERA and won't turn 20 until April 10. A distinguishing factor for Painter relative to some of the game's other top young pitching prospects is that he threw six-plus innings in eight of his 22 starts and completed seven innings three times. The idea of a pitcher this young making an impact in a big-league rotation will be hard for some to buy, but Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski brought Jeremy Bonderman and Rick Porcello to the majors as 20-year-olds when he ran things in Detroit, and the Phillies have a top-heavy rotation with room for a fresh face in 2023. Sometimes when teenagers dominate like this across their first full-season, the encore can be disappointing (Forrest Whitley, MacKenzie Gore). Jose Fernandez's 2013 rookie season is a best-case example. If Painter picks up where he left off this spring, the notion of him winning a rotation spot out of camp will start to gain traction and the market will react accordingly.
More Fantasy News
Makes Triple-A debut
PPhiladelphia Phillies  AAA
May 8, 2025
Painter allowed one hit and three walks while striking out five across three scoreless innings with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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Up to Triple-A for next start
PPhiladelphia Phillies  AAA
May 2, 2025
Painter is scheduled to make his next start with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Thursday, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Remaining at Single-A for now
PPhiladelphia Phillies  AAA
April 29, 2025
Painter will make his next start Thursday with Single-A Clearwater, not with Triple-A Lehigh Valley as initially reported, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Starting at Triple-A on Thursday
PPhiladelphia Phillies  AAA
April 29, 2025
Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that Painter's next start will come at Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Pitching for Single-A club Friday
PPhiladelphia Phillies  AAA
April 6, 2025
Painter is scheduled to make his first start of the season Friday with Single-A Clearwater, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Could win rotation spot
PPhiladelphia Phillies  AAA
February 9, 2023
Painter could win a spot in the Phillies' Opening Day rotation with a strong showing this spring, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic.
ANALYSIS
Painter won't turn 20 years old until April and has just five starts above A-ball under his belt, so at first blush the notion that he could head north with the major-league club seems far-fetched. However, Gelb believes the Phillies won't deny the talented youngster if he looks ready and that it's a question of when, not if, Painter contributes in 2023. Painter is arguably the top prospect in baseball, having posted a 1.48 ERA with 155 strikeouts across 109.2 innings through three levels in 2022.
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