Xfinity 500 Preview: NASCAR's Shortest Track

This week we visit the circuit's shortest track to bring to an end the Round of 8 in the Chase for the Cup.  The NASCAR Cup Series visits Martinsville Speedway, which is the circuit's shortest track, nestled in the foothills of southern Virginia.  After visiting superspeedways and intermediate ovals for most of the Chase, we swing to the other extreme for this week's Xfinity 500. With the big shift in racing style, the drivers had better be prepared for the surprises that the bullring at Martinsville will provide. 

Martinsville Speedway is best described as a "paperclip" shaped track for its twin 800 foot straight-aways capped with hair-pin corners banked at a modest 12 degrees.  Racing at Martinsville requires mental toughness, physical stamina, and razor sharp concentration, and that doesn't even include the durability of your equipment which takes a brutal pounding on this abusive small oval.  So, survival will be the name of the game this weekend as the Chase drivers take to the short track in southern Virginia.  Martinsville Speedway demands the ultimate performance from both the driver and the car, so it is fitting that this bullring is one of the pivotal races that crowns NASCAR's champion.  Some of the top contenders for this season's championship are excellent short track drivers, so we should see some real fireworks at the front of the pack this Sunday afternoon.  For those playoff drivers still vying for a spot in the Championship Round of the Chase, the stakes will be very high in this 500-lap brawl.  Among those are the teams of Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr.  All three have been improving dramatically at the Virginia short track in recent seasons.  Truex and Keselowski have combined to win the last three Martinsville races, and Elliott has been very close to nabbing his first-career win there in recent starts.  So this trio of drivers appear to be in line for a major championship boost this Sunday.

Let's take a quick look at the recent history of Martinsville Speedway.  We have a select group of drivers that rise above the field on short tracks, and we expect to see them running up front on Sunday.  As the loop stats will illustrate, there's a group of the usual suspects we expect to dominate short track racing at the top.  Among these are Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch.  This group of drivers have combined to win 12 races at this small oval.  So these guys will be among the contenders to win the Xfinity 500.  In the table below are the loop stats for the last 31 races at Martinsville Speedway.

A lot has happened since the last race at Martinsville Speedway in June of this year.  Denny Hamlin got on a roll and won three out of eight races in the late spring and early summer.  Cole Custer pulled his surprising, upset victory at Kentucky in mid-July.  Austin Dillon nabbed an equally surprising win at Texas the following week.  Chase Elliott orchestrated a dominant performance in the first-ever NASCAR road course race at Daytona.  Kyle Busch was shockingly eliminated from the Chase field after the Round of 12 at Bristol.  William Byron snapped a 97-race winless streak with his first-career Cup Series victory at Daytona late summer.  Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch are trying desperately to stay alive in terms of the championship, so they'll be racing for the win this Sunday at Martinsville to get the ticket to Phoenix.  All-in-all it has been a wild season of NASCAR racing since the last time we visited the historic Virginia short track. 

If this week's race plays out like the earlier installment at Martinsville, we should be in for some similar action.  Penske Racing star, Joey Logano, would dominate almost the entirety of the race and lead 234 laps.  However, it would be Martin Truex Jr. who would rise late and capture his second-straight win at the Martinsville short track.  His move just prior to final pit stops would be the final of 14 lead changes on the evening.  There's good reason to believe we could see a similar scenario develop in Sunday's Xfinity 500.  The recent short track race at Bristol Motor Speedway produced the same 14 lead changes and saw a similar three-driver dominance of that short track event.  Kevin Harvick won that Bristol race, so the star driver of the No. 4 Ford will bear some close scrutiny at Martinsville Speedway.  We'll examine the short track specialists who thrive on small ovals like Martinsville, and give you the tips that will help you win your fantasy league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Martin Truex Jr. – The pressure to advance into the Championship Round of the Chase will definitely be a motivator for this driver and team.  Truex is the winner of the last two races at this historic short track.  That's a big plus for the No. 19 Toyota team. His Martinsville resume has improved dramatically since 2015.  Truex has led 858 laps at Martinsville Speedway and they've all come since the 2015 season.  The veteran driver rides a six-race Top-10 streak at this track into Sunday's action and has collected two wins and five Top 5's during that span.  Truex dominated this event one year ago and led 464 of the 500 laps.  He returned to the small oval this summer and led 132 laps en route to victory lane.  A win here is Truex's only hope of keeping his championship aspirations alive. 

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski doesn't have the resume that some other NASCAR Cup drivers have at this short track, but he's been building it rapidly the past few seasons.  He has two victories and eight Top-5 finishes in the last nine starts at Martinsville Speedway.  Keselowski has been in contention for the win here recently with a pair of third-place efforts in his last two starts.  The Penske Racing star sports a strong 48-percent career Top-5 rate at the Martinsville short track and has led close to 900 laps for his career at the facility.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford faces possible elimination from the Chase without getting a win Sunday, but his desire to finish well and perform with the best in the series this weekend is at a high point.  We look for Keselowski to race with the leaders this weekend and contend for the win in the Xfinity 500.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star comes to Martinsville locked into the Championship Round of the Chase, but his desire to win will still be very high.  The driver of the No. 22 Ford has been fast in recent Martinsville Speedway outings.  He has one win and four Top 10's in his last five starts at this facility.  Logano led a whopping 234 laps at this oval and finished fourth in June's Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500.  Changing fortunes late in that race denied him victory lane, but his speed and performance were undeniably good.  Logano has been one of the best performing short track drivers of 2020 with one win and four Top-5 finishes to this point.  He'll be a top contender in Sunday's 500-lap battle.

Chase Elliott – Now that we're racing for all the marbles the best is coming out of young Elliott and the No. 9 team.  He's claimed one victory, three Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes during the Chase.  Elliott appears focused like a laser beam on the prize.  This will be just his 11-career start at Martinsville, so we don't have tons of data to review.  However, he has had very strong outings at this speedway the last couple seasons.  Elliott has two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his last five starts at Martinsville Speedway.  His effort here in June netted an impressive fifth-place finish in the Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500.  The young Hendrick Motorsports star is not to be underestimated in this Sunday's Xfinity 500. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Ryan Blaney – Blaney struggled earlier in his career at this tough short track, but he's really turned it up a few notches in his last couple seasons.  He's grabbed four Top-5 finishes in his last five starts at Martinsville Speedway.  That includes Blaney's impressive, career-best runner-up finish at the Martinsville oval in June of this year.  Short tracks have been a real challenge for Penske Racing driver Blaney, but we've begun to see this turn in the opposite direction since the 2018 season.  We can only imagine that the notes and the setup from June's incredible performance are still fresh in Blaney and crew chief Todd Gordon's note book.  They should be strong again in Sunday's Xfinity 500. 

Kyle Busch – The championship chase may be over for this driver and team, but Busch should be all business Sunday in this short track battle.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota has been improving dramatically at this track since the 2015 season.  Busch has two wins, 16 Top-5 and 17 Top-10 finishes in 30-career visits to the Virginia short track.  He's led well over 1,400-career laps at the facility, and most of those have come in the past six seasons.  Busch's two wins have come since the 2016 season, so they've been recent and noteworthy.  Short tracks have always been venues of success for the Joe Gibbs Racing star, and while he won't be a major threat to win he should challenge the Top 5 in this weekend's important playoff race.

Denny Hamlin – Coming to Martinsville, Hamlin's championship hopes may well hinge on his performance in this playoff race.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has won five-career victories at Martinsville Speedway, and he's led over 1,500-career laps at the half-mile oval.  A win here would lock him into the championship round at Phoenix in a couple weeks.  The No. 11 Toyota team has won here as recently as the 2015 season and his career 52-percent Top-5 rate at Martinsville speaks volumes.  Hamlin has three Top-5 finishes, including runner-up finish in his last four starts at Martinsville Speedway.  He is visiting one of his favorite short tracks at a very crucial time during the playoffs.

Kevin Harvick – It's been a great season for the No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing team, and Harvick has his intentions set on claiming another championship in these final two races of 2020.  While Harvick has been anything but dominant at this oval, he still sports a 50-percent career Top-10 rate at Martinsville Speedway, and that's well above the norm.  Harvick has one-career victory and 19 Top-10 finishes at the paperclip in Virginia.  With a win guaranteeing an automatic spot in the final-four championship contenders at Phoenix in a couple weeks, he'll be racing hard this Sunday afternoon.  Five of his last six starts at the Martinsville short track have netted Top-10 finishes.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Martinsville & solid upside

Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet is still alive in the championship hunt, but by the slimmest of margins.  In all reality, Bowman needs to sweep into victory lane this weekend to assure he's racing for the championship at Phoenix.  Motivation and drive will not be an issue.  The Hendrick Motorsports driver has been pretty hot during the Chase and really the past couple months with a number of Top-5 and Top-10 finishes. Bowman doesn't sport the career-long stats at Martinsville we like to see, but the light bulb seemed to come on in his start there earlier this summer.  He raced among the Top 10 all evening and grabbed a track-best sixth-place finish.  That dovetails nicely with his general improvement in 2020 on the short tracks as Bowman continues to improve on these ovals.

Kurt Busch – Busch needs a Hail Mary victory to have any hope of advancing to the Championship Round of the Chase. He's too far back in points to advance on that merit, so the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet will be swinging for the fences this Sunday at Martinsville.  He's a two-time winner at this oval and he rides a good streak of consistency recently into this weekend.  Despite a lowly 20-percent career Top-10 rate at this oval, Busch has been zeroed-in during recent visits to the Virginia short track.  Three of his last four starts at Martinsville Speedway have netted Top-10 finishes.  That streak includes his steady sixth- and ninth-place efforts in his last two starts.  Busch won't likely get that win he needs in terms of the playoffs, but he should be a face among the Top 10 at the end of the 500 laps.      

Clint Bowyer – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran will be making his final career start at Martinsville Speedway.  The good news is that we're visiting one of his better short tracks this weekend.  Bowyer is a one-time Martinsville winner.  He now has 16 Top 10's in 29-career starts at this oval, which is a strong 55-percent rate.  Bower has four Top-10 finishes in his last seven Martinsville starts, so that's in line with his career numbers at this facility.  His short track stats this season have been pretty strong with a 63-percent Top-10 rate, so they've been easily his best ovals.  Bowyer knows this event is one more good chance for him to grab a grandfather clock trophy, and he'll race with that urgency. 

William Byron – Byron was eliminated from the Chase in earlier rounds, but he's racing strong down the stretch in order to tune up for the 2021 campaign.  Much like his teammate, Alex Bowman, this young driver seems to have solved the Martinsville puzzle in recent visits.  His last two starts have netted second- and eighth-place finishes.  That's a big contrast from his earlier career numbers at this tough oval.  Byron has been a 50-percent Top-10 finisher on the short tracks this season, so that improvement has been noticeable over his earlier starts on the NASCAR bullrings.  The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet rides a four-race Top-10 streak into Virginia this week, and we expect him to stay hot in the Xfinity 500. 

Jimmie Johnson – Our seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion is a nine-time winner at Martinsville, and has led well over 2,900 career laps at the paperclip-shaped track.  His years of performance at this oval is unquestionable.  Johnson seems to have slipped from atop his dominant pedestal at Martinsville Speedway.  He no longer is the driver to beat each time we visit here.  However, he's been a steady performer here in recent seasons.  That's best illustrated with his 70 laps led and 10th-place finish in June's Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500.  He slugged it out all night in that race with some of the best in the series and walked away with his 25th-career Top 10 at Martinsville Speedway.  Johnson should give his fans something to remember in his last career start at this historic short track. 

Ryan Newman – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran isn't a part of the championship picture, but he has had some good finishes during the Chase.  Newman grabbed an impressive Top 10 at Talladega and Top 15's at both Darlington and Las Vegas.  He comes to a short track that has held a lot of success for him over the years.  Martinsville Speedway has yielded three poles, one victory and 17 Top-10 finishes to the driver of the No. 6 Ford Mustang.  Newman has been sharp even in recent visits to the paperclip with two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last four trips to Southern Virginia.  In this event one year ago the veteran driver finished 10th-place, and that has been pretty much the high water mark of late for Newman at this facility.  He should be a Top-15 finisher again this Sunday afternoon.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has every motivation to perform well in this Sunday's Xfinity 500.  Almirola is eliminated from the Chase, but is using these final races of 2020 to get primed for next season.  Martinsville Speedway has not been his best short track over the years.  With only four Top-10 finishes in 23 starts, he's checking in at a lowly 17-percent rate.  Recent visits to the facility have been very tough for the driver of the No. 10 Ford. Almirola crashed and finished 37th in this event one year ago, and his visit here in June went awry with battery issues and he finished a distant 33rd in the Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500.  With an average finish of 22.1 at the track, there are better fantasy racing options than Almirola this weekend.

Austin Dillon – Dillon has had a lot of fantasy racing utility this season, but it's mainly been on the intermediate and larger ovals.  Short tracks have not been bad, but Martinsville Speedway has been a tough oval in recent seasons for the driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet.  Dillon's last five starts at this short track have netted just one Top-15 finish vs. three finishes of 30th or worse.  He had major issues in June with exhaust fumes coming back into the car and he had to retire early with a disappointing 37th-place finish.  With a career 15-percent Top-10 rate and 19.6 average finish at Martinsville Speedway, it's best to pass on Dillon in weekly lineup and salary cap based leagues in the Xfinity 500.   

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Short tracks have been a real bear for the veteran driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet in 2020.  Stenhouse has scuffled to just one Top 10 and two Top 15's on these small tracks this season for an average finish around 24.5.  Martinsville Speedway has been equally disappointing for the JTG Daugherty Racing driver the last three seasons.  With just one Top 15 and three finishes outside the Top 20, Stenhouse sports a recent 23.4 average finish at Martinsville.  In June he peddled to a 21st-place finish, three laps down to the leaders at the end of 500 laps.  That's probably the high end of what you should expect from this driver and team this weekend.  Stenhouse is a shaky fantasy racing play in this ninth race of the Chase playoffs. 

Erik Jones – The Joe Gibbs Racing driver is a stellar fantasy racing consideration on the short track in Bristol, but the other small ovals of the circuit are shaky ground for the driver of the No. 20 Toyota.  Jones has finished 20th or worse five times on the small ovals of the 2020 season.  His Martinsville history bears this statistical trend out.  Jones' seven-career starts at Martinsville Speedway have netted just one Top-15 finish vs. five finishes of 20th or worse.  The 21.6 average finish across that span does very little to move the needle off a negative view for this driver and team this weekend.  Jones is a good bench candidate for this weekend and likely the following weekend at Phoenix as well.