Nico Collins

The once-famous Year 3 breakout is far less common now that high-end WR production tends to happen either immediately or never, but Collins did in a big way last year, buoyed by rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The 2021 third-round pick never lacked for physical tools, coming out of Michigan with a 4.43 40-yard dash and 37.5-inch vertical at 6-4, 215. Production was another matter, with Collins totaling 1,388 yards and 13 TDs over three collegiate seasons in run-heavy offenses before opting out of a COVID-shortened senior campaign. He then had 446 yards in 14 games as a rookie and 481 yards in 10 games his second season, with injuries perhaps obscuring significant progress in terms of target-earning and per-game production from Year 1 to 2. Collins exploded for 428 yards and three TDs over the first four weeks of 2023, before tailing off a bit while rookie Tank Dell took the lead in Houston's passing game. Collins got hot again, and if not for calf injuries costing him two full games and all but three snaps of another, he might've gone north of 1,500 yards. He reached 80 yards in eight of the 13 games in which he played at least half of Houston's snaps, including totals of 195, 191, 168, 146 and 101. Collins finished third among WRs in yards per target (11.9) and yards per route (3.29), then added 164 yards on 17 targets in two playoff games. It was a resounding series of performances that leaves little doubt about Collins being a high-quality player, but his 2024 fantasy projection is less of a sure thing in light of the Texans' trade for Stefon Diggs. While the 30-year-old presumably won't be the same target hog he was in Buffalo, there's nonetheless a ton of competition for Stroud's attention in an offense that also has Dell, TE Dalton Schultz and RB Joe Mixon. Read Past Outlooks