Season Finale 500 Preview: Crowning the Champion

The finale of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season has arrived.  After 35 events of spectacular crashes, dominating performances, and surprise comebacks, we have finally reached the championship-crowning moment of the sport.  The drama has been building all season long, and even more so the last several weeks of the Chase.  For several years NASCAR has crowned its champion at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but this season the sanctioning body moved this championship race to Phoenix Raceway.  The Phoenix track in Avondale, Arizona is an irregular "D" shaped oval with very flat banking in the corners of nine to 11 degrees.  The straights are completely flat, and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners.  It is truly a unique facility among those on the NASCAR Cup circuit, and very fitting that it now determines the series champion.  The Phoenix oval underwent many configuration changes a couple seasons ago.  So the last four races at the facility have been with the new configuration.  We'll focus in very closely on those four events when looking at our driver prognostications this week.

Since Phoenix Raceway is so unique, we have a driver set for this race that is unique as well.  Certain drivers thrive on the flat oval in the Arizona desert, while some others would rather be just about anywhere else this weekend but Phoenix.  However, one theme will be quite clear.  Four drivers come to the Arizona desert in a dead-heat for the championship.  The format of the Chase has narrowed the field to just Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin.  It all comes down to one race for all the marbles and all four drivers start even at 5,000 points.  The stakes and the pressure have never been higher.  If anything the last two weeks have shown us at Texas and Martinsville, this has been a wild Chase for the Cup and anything can happen.  The racing has been highly competitive and the fall out has made for some wild action on the track.  So, if for no other reason that this, tune in on Sunday to see what the last chapter in this wild season holds.

For the first time since March, we're racing at Phoenix Raceway.  It was almost eight months ago that the NASCAR Cup Series ran in the mid-afternoon in the Arizona desert.  Even though it has been a long time since drivers made laps at Phoenix, we can still look at the results from the Fan Shield 500 for indicators for this weekend.  Not only that race, but we'll factor in the last 15 seasons at the Phoenix oval for some ideas of who will run up front this weekend.  Current hot streaks will play a part as well in evaluating this weekend's race, but historical stats at this facility are a very valuable tool.  Here are the loop stats for the last 31 races at the Phoenix oval.

If anyone hopes to pull a surprise upset in the championship finale, we need to examine each of the four drivers carefully to make that prediction.  Two of our championship playoff drivers have two-career victories at the desert oval.  Joey Logano (2016 and 2020) and Denny Hamlin (2012 and 2019) are the two drivers with past wins at this facility, and seemingly the top contenders.  However, we can't count out the surging Chase Elliott and never underestimate the crafty veteran Brad Keselowski.  This duo is more than capable of upsetting the odds makers and pulling into victory lane for the first time at Phoenix Raceway.

These drivers will be joined by short track specialists Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. in racing for the checkers this weekend.  All four have been eliminated from the Chase, but they are all looking to end the season with a win and the momentum it would carry into the off-season.  One thing is for certain, when the green flag drops at Phoenix Raceway this Sunday afternoon the fireworks will fly as these drivers compete for the big stakes at the desert oval.  We'll examine those championship contending teams who are racing for all the marbles this weekend at the Phoenix short track and those who could sneak up and surprise the championship contending teams.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Chase Elliott – Elliott's upset victory at Martinsville last week has propelled the young driver into his first-career Championship 4 appearance.  With two wins in the last four races, the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has the momentum coming into this season finale.  Elliott's nine prior Cup starts at Phoenix have netted two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes, along with 249 laps led.  While he's yet to win at this oval, Elliott has been improving with each start.  His effort here in March of this year netted 93 laps led and a seventh-place finish.  Coming off the big Martinsville win this past weekend, this driver and team are on fire right now.  Elliott may well hoist his first-ever championship trophy this Sunday afternoon. 

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star is thick in the battle to win the 2020 championship. The good news for Logano is that he's the last race-winner at Phoenix Raceway.  The driver of the No. 22 Ford Mustang led 60 laps and out-battled Kevin Harvick to win March's Fan Shield 500.  It was Logano's second victory at the flat desert oval.  His first win isn't too far in the rearview mirror either.  Logano won this event in 2016 for his first-career Phoenix victory.  Riding a three-race Phoenix Top-10 streak entering the weekend, we really like Logano's chances.  He served notice last Sunday with his third-place finish at Martinsville that he's going to be in this championship battle until the very last lap of the 2020 season. 

Kevin Harvick – Harvick was shockingly eliminated from the playoffs last weekend at Martinsville Speedway.  He may not be racing for the NASCAR title, but he'll look to rebound with a win at one of his favorite short tracks this week.  Harvick has been the dominant force at this oval since the 2012 season and has the seven victories since then to prove it.  The Stewart Haas Racing star has a strong career resume at this Arizona short track.  He has over 1,600 laps led at this facility and nine total victories.  Harvick carries a staggering 14-race Phoenix Top-10 streak into Sunday's Season Finale 500.  That includes his impressive runner-up finish here in March's Fan Shield 500.  Never underestimate Harvick's ability to win at this race track. 

Kyle Busch – Busch's career resume at Phoenix Raceway was once a mixed bag, but it has completely turned around in the last few seasons.  He has two victories and two runner-up finishes in his last five Phoenix starts.  Those efforts bring his career total to three wins at the Avondale, Arizona short track.  In addition, the Joe Gibbs Racing star rides a 10-race Phoenix Top-10 streak into this Sunday's season finale.  That illustrates his recent excellence at this flat short track.  Considering that Busch just racked up his first win of the season a couple weeks ago at Texas, the driver of the No. 18 Toyota may be visiting the Phoenix oval at the right time to grab another win before the season is complete.  

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – The No. 2 Penske Racing Ford team comes to Phoenix looking claim a second NASCAR championship.  While a victory is not highly likely, a good performance should be very much in the cards.  Keselowski has Top-10 finishes in 10 of 22 starts at the Arizona short track.  While that's a pedestrian 46-percent, recent short track outings for this driver and team are a good indicator of potential for Sunday's 312-lap battle at Phoenix Raceway.  Keselowski's hard-fought fourth-place finish at Martinsville this past weekend is a great example.  When we look back to March of this year, the veteran driver led 82 laps and had great speed, but faded to finish 11th in the Fan Shield 500.  We believe he'll be even strong in Sunday's Season Finale 500.

Ryan Blaney – Coming off fourth- and second-place finishes at Texas and Martinsville the last two weeks, Blaney is riding quite a hot streak coming into the last race of 2020. The young driver has a nice four-race Top-10 streak as we come to Arizona.  Phoenix offers another opportunity for the No. 12 Penske Racing team to crack the Top 5 and finish the season on one torrid streak.  Blaney has nine-career starts at Phoenix Raceway with four Top-10 finishes to his credit.  That bodes well going into the Season Finale 500.  The young driver has improved tremendously on short tracks during the last two seasons.  Blaney has a pair of third-place finishes in his last three starts at this facility.  Those are his career-best efforts at the Arizona oval.  Blaney has been razor sharp the last few weeks, and he should be up for the challenge in this 312-lap battle.  

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star heads to Phoenix looking to recover from a tough luck Martinsville outing, and keep his slim chances of a championship alive.  This week he visits one of his better ovals in Phoenix Raceway.  Hamlin has great stats at this oval that are worth considering.  He has two pole positions, two victories and 17 Top-10 finishes in his Phoenix resume.  That works out to a strong 57-percent Top-10 rate.  With an impressive average finish of 11.3 at this D-shaped oval, it's clear that the JGR driver likes racing at this tough short track.  Hamlin's been strong in recent Phoenix outings with well over 300 laps led and three Top-5 finishes in his last six attempts.  A great performance for Hamlin coupled with some tough luck for the other championship contenders could sneak Hamlin into the 2020 championship crown.    

Martin Truex Jr. – The No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team is looking to rebound from their poor luck at Martinsville and shocking elimination from the playoffs.  This short track gives Truex a good opportunity to wrap up 2020 on a positive note.  The veteran driver has only 11 Top-10 finishes in his 29-career starts at Phoenix for a marginal 38-percent Top-10 rate.  However, outings the last four seasons have gone up in a big way.  Truex has claimed one pole position, and three Top-5 finishes in his last six starts at Phoenix Raceway.  That includes his strong sixth-place finish in this event one year ago.  Truex had great speed and led 129 laps this past Sunday at Martinsville before loose wheel derailed his chances to win.  He'll bring that same speed to Phoenix for the season finale. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Phoenix & solid upside

Kurt Busch – No matter what happens Sunday afternoon, Busch has had a great season.  Despite not advancing deep into the Chase, Busch has posted good results in 2020.  Phoenix Raceway should present him with another opportunity to grab a Top 10 before the season ends.  Busch has solid career numbers at this small oval.  35-career starts have yielded 20 Top-10 finishes, 813 laps led and one victory.  He's had his fair share of success at the Arizona flat track.  In his start at Phoenix Raceway earlier this season, Busch peddled hard to nab a sixth-place finish in the Fan Shield 500.  That lifted his career Top-10 average at Phoenix to 57-percent, and lowered his career average finish there to 13.7.  We expect the No. 1 Chevrolet team to race up front this Sunday afternoon.

Alex Bowman – Bowman has been razor sharp of late.  Coming off a strong sixth-place finish at Martinsville Speedway, the driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet rides a four-race Top-10 streak into the final race of the season.  Bowman has six-career starts at this Phoenix oval with the No. 88 Chevrolet team, and they've only yielded one Top-10 finish.  However, his start here in March netted a respectable 14th-place finish.  There's been gradual improvement in each start for this veteran driver at this facility.  Considering how well Bowman is racing right now, we expect to see him post his second-career Phoenix Top 10 in Sunday's Season Finale 500. 

Aric Almirola – Almirola looked like a man on a mission this past weekend driving his Ford to a seventh-place finish at the Martinsville short track.  It was his career-best 18th Top 10 of the season and in the process snapped a five-race Top-10 drought for the No. 10 team.  While a Phoenix win would be a long shot for Almirola, we should see another great effort in an attempt to finish this season strong.  The veteran driver of the No. 10 Ford has had limited success at Phoenix Raceway over his career, but he started to turn the corner here a few seasons ago.  Almirola has five Top-10 finishes in his last six starts at the Desert Jewel.  The last of those was his eighth-place finish there in March of this year.  We believe he can challenge that mark again Sunday in the final race of 2020. 

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer will wrap up a 15-season NASCAR Cup Series career with his final start of the season this weekend in Phoenix.  While he's had a love-hate relationship with the desert oval, recent indications have been tilting more positive recently.  Three of Bowyer's last five starts at the Phoenix flat track have netted Top-10 finishes, including the last two-straight.  That includes his strong fifth-place finish in March's Fan Shield 500.  The driver of the Stewart Haas Racing No. 14 Ford is coming off an impressive eighth-place finish at Martinsville this past Sunday.  That's Bowyer's second Top 10 in the last four events.  Bowyer appears to be racing hard into his coming retirement, and leaving nothing on the track.     

Matt DiBenedetto – The Wood Brothers Racing driver didn't disappoint at Martinsville this past weekend.  DiBenedetto peddled the No. 21 Ford to a strong 10th-place finish in the Xfinity 500.  With a new contract to race in the team's Mustang next season, the veteran driver is rewarding them with some good racing down the stretch.  DiBenedetto has 12th-, eighth- and 10th-place finishes in the last three events.  Phoenix Raceway hasn't been a track of much success for DiBenedetto, but he's shown some flashes of improvement in his last two starts.  He's racked up a pair of 13th-place finishes at Phoenix since last November.  Those are DiBenedetto's career-best finishes at the desert short track.  We expect him to improve on those marks Sunday afternoon.    

William Byron – The Hendrick Motorsports youngster nabbed his second-career Phoenix Top-10 finish at the Desert Jewel in March of this year.  Byron piloted the No. 24 Chevrolet to a 10th-place finish in the Fan Shield 500.  He has improved incredibly since that race, and should show what he's learned over the last year in Sunday's Season Finale 500.  Byron was riding a quite nice streak before his crash at Martinsville this past Sunday.  He had three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in the four events leading up to Martinsville.   This driver and team are rounding out the season strong, and Phoenix Raceway gives Byron another opportunity to outperform and impress.  He has a very high ceiling for Sunday's 312-lap battle at the Arizona short track. 

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Jimmie Johnson – After a disappointing 30th-place finish at Martinsville this past weekend, Johnson comes to Phoenix on a tough-luck run of late.  Two of his last five starts have resulted in DNF's with finishes outside the Top 30.  That's an unsettling statistic heading into Phoenix Raceway this weekend.  Johnson is making his last-career Cup Series start this Sunday but the nostalgia and reflection may not be punctuated with a good finish.  The Hendrick Motorsports star has enjoyed a lot of success at the Phoenix oval over the years.  Johnson is a four-time winner at Phoenix, and he has a staggering 21 Top-10 finishes in 34-career starts (62-percent).  The Hendrick Motorsports star has had his issues of late, thus the slow down ranking this week.  Johnson's last six Phoenix starts have yielded only one Top-10 finish.                               

Michael McDowell – The Front Row Motorsports driver has been quite useful this season in deep weekly lineup leagues.  However, recently he's struggled during the NASCAR playoffs.  McDowell slogged to a 28th-place finish this past week at Martinsville and he has only one Top 20 in his last five events leading into Phoenix.  The average finish across the span sits at a very cold 28.2.  McDowell has 19-career starts at Phoenix Raceway, and those have netted just two Top-20 finishes.  Recent starts have yielded three finishes outside the Top 30 in the last five events.  The career average finish at Phoenix stands at an inflated 32.2.  McDowell just doesn't perform at this Arizona short track.  It's best to dismiss any thoughts of fantasy racing deployment in the Season Finale 500.

Chris Buescher – Another driver who is struggling coming into the season finale is JTG Daugherty Racing driver Buescher.  He's only cracked the Top 20 once in the last five events and carries an average finish of 27.0 during this recent five-race span.  Buescher's crash and DNF at Martinsville Speedway this past Sunday is just the latest of his recent struggles.  Phoenix Raceway has held very little results for the journeyman driver over the years.  Buescher's nine-career starts at the desert oval have yielded no Top-15 finishes and an average finish of 24.7.  Those marks are far from impressive, and indicate his struggles at this facility.  While Sunday's Season Finale 500 is an opportunity for Buescher to end the season on a positive note, it's best to stay clear of any fantasy racing expectations. 

Austin Dillon – What has been a pretty good season for the RCR No. 3 team is winding down in the wrong way.  Dillon is limping into the season finale this week.  The veteran driver hasn't cracked the Top 10 in the last seven events and he's coming off a disappointing 23rd-place finish at Martinsville.  Dillon is far from a top performer at the Phoenix oval.  He hasn't cracked the Top 20 in his last three visits to the Desert Jewel.  As for Dillon's career marks at the Phoenix short track, he has just two Top 10's in 13 starts which works out to a lowly 21.8 average finish.  The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet crashed and finished 36th-place in March's Fan Shield 500, and that's not a good endorsement for this driver and team this weekend.