Night Race Preview: World's Fastest Half Mile

This weekend we return to the famous short track in Bristol, Tenn., for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race.  The high-contact, short track action under the lights is one of the most popular races on the schedule.  It's been a long, hard haul since the ninth race of the season, which was the last time NASCAR's top division visited Thunder Valley. 

 Since then, we've seen Kevin Harvick dominate the championship standings lead for the most part, with a good challenge from Denny Hamlin.  We've seen Harvick and Hamlin completely pound the competition into the ground.  We've seen Cole Custer's big upset victory at Kentucky.  We've also seen William Byron's first-career win at Daytona a couple weeks ago.  So a lot has happened since the NASCAR Cup Series last visited the high banks of BMS. 

This visit to Bristol Motor Speedway will be different than the recent past.  The late-summer Bristol race is no longer a part of the regular-season schedule, but now makes up the first segment of the Chase for the Cup playoffs.  This is the third race of the Chase and the cutoff to advance into the second round of the NASCAR playoffs.  To advance, drivers simply have to win or be below the cut line of the Top 12 in the championship points.  That added urgency to advance will really crank up the pressure for this 500-lap battle.  Tensions will be high, and so will be the pressure to advance and stay in the battle for the 2020 championship.   

In preparing our fantasy race teams this week, we'll need to take a close look at the last 15 years at Bristol Motor Speedway in order to collect some recent data on the drivers.  The loop stats from these 31 races will be very useful.  This span will cover Bristol's recent history and should bear some great data.  In forming this week's driver list we'll also pay some attention to current hot streaks.  Drivers who raced well at Richmond should carry that momentum into the World's Fastest Half-Mile this Saturday night.  Here are the loop stats for the top-performing Bristol drivers, sorted by driver rating. 

In the season's first race at Bristol Motor Speedway back in May of this year, we had a few surprises, both at the top and the bottom of the finishing order.  Still, some of the same short track specialists found their way to the front.  Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch staged a running battle for most of the race.  However, the No. 2 Ford of Brad Keselowski would rise late and take advantage of a late multi-car crash among the leaders.  He would take the lead with just 3 laps to go and cruise to the win over Clint Bowyer.  It was the Penske Racing star's third-career victory at Bristol.  That performance and win capped an amazing day for Keselowski at BMS.  Considering that the veteran driver is coming off last weekend's big Richmond win, Keselowski has to be very confident returning to Thunder Valley this week. 

Also of note that day in May was Kyle Busch's fantastic performance.  He led 100 laps and raced hard late to crack the Top 5 in the 500-lap spring battle at Bristol.  The 2020 season has been a tough one for the Joe Gibbs Racing star but this was one of his more memorable performances of the season.  The duo of Busch and Hamlin led a combined 231 laps that afternoon.  JGR muscle was on full display.  Chase Elliott led 88 laps and was the leading driver for Chevrolet, but ran into trouble and finished a distant 22nd on the afternoon.  Ryan Blaney also spent some time at the front with 60 laps led before crashing and finishing 40th, which has been the theme of his season.  Can any of these contenders step up and redeem themselves at Bristol this weekend?  We'll soon find out.  Let's take a look at the historical loop stats and recent hot streaks and see if we can clear up the picture, and give you the drivers you need this weekend to conquer the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Brad Keselowski – The three-time Bristol winner and our most recent victor at the Tennessee short track rides some massive momentum into this weekend's Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race.  Keselowski is fresh off a dominating performance at Richmond and his fourth win of the season.  He's locked into the next round of the Chase and the pressure is off, for now.  Bristol presents the opportunity for the No. 2 Ford team to grab a second win in the playoffs.  Keselowski led 115 laps from the pole here in May and used a stroke of good luck to grab his third Bristol win.  That dovetails nicely with his late 2019 performance at Thunder Valley where Keselowski led 91 laps and finished an impressive third-place.  This driver and team are hot right now, and they come to Bristol as the defending track champs. 

Denny Hamlin – Coming off lackluster finishes at Darlington and Richmond, it would seem that the No. 11 Toyota team are in need of a boost going into round 2 of the Chase.  Bristol should offer a great rebound opportunity for Hamlin and a way to get back on track.  Hamlin has cracked the Top 5 in two of his last three Bristol starts coming into Thunder Valley Saturday night.  He's led a combined 217 laps across that span, so he's been at the front and not playing follow the leader.  Hamlin tends to step it up a notch for the events under the lights, so optimism in that trend should be even higher.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time Bristol winner and his victory in this event last season is a big endorsement.  Advancing in the playoffs will be another motivating factor for this driver and team.   

Joey Logano – Logano has been heating up of late as his pair of third-place finishes at Darlington and Richmond illustrate.  A visit to the Tennessee short track should be just what the doctor ordered to keep the streak rolling.  Logano has two-career victories at this short track, the latest as recently as 2015.  He has three Top-10 finishes in his last five Bristol starts coming into Saturday night's action, and this current string has boosted his career Top-10 rate here to 44-percent.  The short tracks have been a bright spot this year for the Penske Racing star.  Logano grabbed an early-season win at Phoenix and his recent pair of Top 10's in the Dover doubleheader weekend are noteworthy.  Coming off last Saturday night's strong third-place at the Richmond short track, Logano is primed for a big Bristol performance.

Kyle Busch – The eight-time Bristol winner has had his way in recent trips to the Tennessee short track.  Busch enters the weekend with one win and a pair of fourth-place finishes in his last three trips to East Tennessee.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led well over 200 laps combined in his last three Bristol starts.  These recent outings have only bolstered what is already an amazing career racing record at this historic short track.  In addition to Busch's eight wins, he has 13 Top-5 finishes (43-percent) and led well over 2,400 laps.  Make no mistake, 2020 has been a down year for the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing team, but if there's an oval in the playoffs to get Busch into the win column, it's Bristol Motor Speedway.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is gearing up to advance deep into the Chase playoffs, and no better place than Bristol to make a run at a very important win, and lock into the next round.  Elliott has nine-career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway and they've yielded four Top-10 finishes.  Our major reason for optimism this weekend for the Hendrick Motorsports driver is twofold.  Elliott is coming off four Top-5 finishes in the last six events, including a Top 5 at Richmond this past weekend.  Secondly, his performances on short tracks this season have been among his very best.  Elliott nabbed a recent Top-5 finish on the similarly banked oval in Dover a few weeks ago.  He led 88 laps at Bristol Motor Speedway in May before running into trouble.  There is great potential for Elliott this weekend.     

Kevin Harvick – Coming off a seventh-place Richmond finish, the No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing team is sailing right along coming into the Bristol night race.  Harvick has eight victories on the season, but most of those have come on the larger ovals.  Bristol is more of a Top-10 oval for the dominating superstar.  He's a two-time Bristol winner but hasn't won here since 2016.  Harvick has 19-career Top-10 finishes at Bristol Motor Speedway and that checks in at a respectable 49-percent rate.  His 11th-place finish here in May is the low end of what we expect for this Saturday night.  With this driver and team already locked into round 2 of the Chase, we expect Harvick to soft-peddle to another Top-10 finish in this 500-lap battle. 

Kurt Busch – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran has six-career wins at Bristol Motor Speedway, including this event two seasons ago.  Busch rides a four-race Bristol Top-10 streak into this weekend's action.  He's now amassed 21-career Top-10 finishes at the Bristol short track, and that checks in at a strong 54-percent rate.  Busch has been mired in a bit of a slump entering this weekend, but this is definitely the track where he can shake that off and right the ship going deeper into the playoffs.  Bristol Motor Speedway has been a go-to track for this driver for many years.  Busch should be a top performer in this 500-lap brawl under the lights.        

Austin Dillon – The playoffs will spur some drivers and teams to really step up their level of performance, and this appears to be the case with Dillon and the No. 3 Chevrolet team.  The veteran driver is coming off second- and fourth-place finishes at Darlington and Richmond and Dillon is in the midst of what appears to be a career-best season.  If we look at his career-long numbers at Bristol Motor Speedway, they don't inspire much confidence.  However, if we look to his last outing at the half-mile bowl, we get very good vibes.  Dillon peddled the No. 3 Chevy to a strong sixth-place finish in May's Food City 500.  That was just one of many good short track outings this season for this driver and team.  Dillon seems intent on contending for this season's championship, so he's a driver to roll in the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Bristol & solid upside

Erik Jones – As we come to Bristol this weekend we have to consider the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing team and youngster Jones.  He is coming off a subpar finish at Richmond this past week, but Jones should rebound nicely at Bristol Motor Speedway.  The young driver has just seven-career starts at BMS, but has shown tremendous potential in that brief experience.  One pole position, one runner-up finish and three Top-5 finishes to go along with 293 laps led are his tale of the tape.  That level of performance just typically doesn't happen for young drivers at this challenging short track.  His most recent performance was an impressive fifth-place finish at BMS in May.  Jones has an obvious gift for racing at this oval, and he should return to Top 10 form in the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson and his No. 48 team were a real disappointment at Richmond last weekend.  Early contact with the wall put him off the lead lap early and he never recovered.  That performance is the outlier this season as he's typically been strong on the short tracks.  Johnson's pair of Top 10's in the Dover doubleheader a few weeks ago are good evidence of this fact.  That sets up well considering the Hendrick Motorsports star's strong career stats at this half-mile oval.  Johnson is a two-time Bristol winner and has 22 Top-10 finishes in 37-career starts for a strong 60-percent rate.  Four of his last five Bristol appearances have netted Top 10's. This is definitely a weekend to use the seven-time champion in weekly lineup leagues.

Clint Bowyer – One of the biggest risk/reward drivers in the field is Bowyer and the No. 14 team.  His recent uptick in performance and two-race Top-10 streak coming to Bristol is well-timed.  Bowyer has visited the Top 10 in three of the six events this season on ovals 1-mile or less in size.  The average finish is checking in around a strong 11.5.  The veteran driver is a career 55-percent Top-10 finisher at Bristol Motor Speedway, and that includes a five-race Bristol Top-10 streak entering this weekend.  His runner-up finish at Bristol in May of this year is a high-water mark for the campaign. We expect Bowyer to keep his good streak rolling Saturday night at the Bristol bull ring.

Cole Custer – Somewhere around July the light bulb got flipped on for this rookie driver.  Custer grabbed a surprising Top 5 at Indy and then a shocking win at Kentucky. Custer has been pretty good ever since.  He has Top-15 finishes in his last two starts at Darlington and Richmond. The short tracks too have been fertile ground for the SHR No. 41 team.  Custer has finishes of eighth-, 11th-, 10th- and 14th-place in his last four short track events.  He didn't have a good outing here in May (crash and DNF) but that was his Cup Series debut at Bristol.  We expect better returns in his second look at the historic short track.  Custer should crack the Top 15 and possibly challenge the Top 10 Saturday night at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Christopher Bell – Another rookie that's primed to have a big performance at BMS this week is Bell.  He didn't struggle at all here in his track debut in May. In fact, it was one of the more impressive drives of the afternoon at Bristol.  Bell lined up 35th on the starting grid and piloted his No. 95 Toyota through the field that day.  He would break inside the Top 10 late in stage 3 and capture a ninth-place finish in the Food City 500.  Coming off a steady Top-15 finish this past weekend at Richmond, we're certain Bell is eager for another visit to Bristol Motor Speedway.  He had one win and one runner-up finish at this oval during his Xfinity Series career, and it's clear that he just loves racing at this half-mile short track.    

Tyler Reddick – We're going to continue with the rookie driver theme in the bottom half of our sleepers list this week and suggest a fantasy start for Reddick as well.  The Richard Childress Racing youngster has been pretty strong on the short tracks this season with one Top 10 and three Top 15 performances.  Reddick just turned in a strong 11th-place finish at the Richmond short track last weekend.  Much like Cole Custer, his Cup Series debut at Bristol in May didn't go very well.  He crashed and finished 36th that afternoon.  We expect lessons learned to be employed by the No. 8 team this weekend.  Reddick is a quick study behind the wheel and he's shown that all season long.  He had a win and runner-up finish in the Xfinity Series last season at Bristol and he'll tap into that experience this Saturday night. 

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is stumbling to start the NASCAR playoffs.  The Penske Racing driver has had a wildly inconsistent season, but it's only gotten worse of late.  Blaney's last two efforts have been subpar 24th- and 19th-place finishes at Darlington and Richmond.  Facing elimination in the Chase for the Cup playoffs, we're not sure Blaney can answer the bell this Saturday night.  Short tracks have been pretty stingy for this young driver in 2020.  Blaney has just one Top 10 in six starts on ovals one-mile in size or less and a subpar 17.8 average finish.  He sports a respectable 40-percent Top-10 rate at Bristol, but he did crash and finish dead last here in May of this year.  It's best to lay off any fantasy racing expectations for the No. 12 Penske Racing team this weekend.                

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been really good this season, and he has been a Top-5 machine of late coming into Thunder Valley this week.  However, Bristol has always been the Achilles Heel track for this veteran driver over the years.  Truex's career numbers at Bristol Motor Speedway are less-than-inspiring.  He has only three Top-10 finishes in 29 starts.  Other than a Top-10 finish in the spring 2017 Bristol event, which we would consider to be an outlier, Truex has failed to crack the Top 10 at this facility since the 2012 season.  All that toil has lowered his Bristol Top-10 rate to a lowly 10-percent.  The driver of the No. 19 Toyota could jump up and surprise this weekend, but we would put those odds as very slim.  Certainly, in weekly lineup leagues, you would be best served to save his starts for later in the Chase at more friendly intermediate ovals.        

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran grabbed what was just his third-career Top-10 Bristol finish in 2018 in April's Food City 500.  This short tack has not been a venue of success for the driver of the No. 10 Ford.  His four starts at BMS since that Top 10 have been disappointing finishes outside the Top 25.  That has brought Almirola's career Top-10 rate at Bristol Motor Speedway to a lowly 14-percent.  This veteran driver has improved across the spectrum of tracks since moving to the No. 10 SHR team in 2018.  However, that improvement doesn't seem to have come at the Bristol bull ring.  Almirola's current two-race Top-10 streak should be largely discounted coming into this 500-lap battle under the lights at Bristol. 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – It's been a very tough season of short track racing for Stenhouse and the No. 47 Chevrolet team.  With only two Top-15 finishes and three finishes outside the Top 20, this driver and team are struggling coming to Bristol.  The average finish stands around 22.3 for this driver and team on this season's bull rings.  Bristol Motor Speedway has typically been a track of success for Stenhouse, but his level of performance at this half-mile oval dropped off a cliff two seasons ago.  His last four starts at Bristol Motor Speedway have netted 24th-, 33rd-, 33rd- and 34th-place finishes.  Things have been so frustrating that Stenhouse has failed to finish his last two starts at the Tennessee short track.  It's better to look elsewhere for your fantasy racing league help this week.