NASCAR Barometer: Elliott Wins to Race for Title in Phoenix

Chase Elliott led 236 of 500 laps to score an emphatic win in Sunday's Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. The win pulled Elliott out of the playoff drop zone and put him into the championship finale at Phoenix Raceway. It was Elliott's fourth win of the season and gives him his first chance of winning the NASCAR Cup Series title. He'll have to outduel Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin to hoist the trophy, however. 

Leaving Martinsville with championship dreams shattered were Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Alex Bowman and Kurt Busch. Harvick and Truex should feel the most disappointment. Truex had early speed and led 129 laps before a loose wheel sent him tumbling out of contention and out of the playoff picture. Harvick was on a razor-thin edge of making it through on points but came up a few positions short. An ill-advised lunge down the inside of Kyle Busch on the final lap sealed his fate as he spun into the inside wall just feet from the finish line. Those four drivers combined to win 12 races in the 2020 season but could not muster enough in the last three races to join their competitors with a championship chance in Phoenix. As a result, fantasy players may have one of the most entertaining championship finale races on their hands this coming week in the 2020 series-deciding Season Finale 500 at Phoenix Raceway.

UPGRADE

Chase Elliott – Elliott exuded confidence before Sunday's Xfinity 500. As the race went on, it was apparent where that confidence was coming from. He, Hamlin and Truex were some of the fastest cars on track early in the race, and Elliott was quick enough to comfortably take the second stage victory. Elliott maximized that pace and drove his way to Victory Lane to earn a ticket into the championship finale Sunday at Phoenix Raceway. The last time a Hendrick Motorsports car was in the final four was 2016, the last time Jimmie Johnson won a series title. Elliott has five top-10s from nine Phoenix starts. He started on pole there earlier this season and finished seventh.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin overcame a crew mistake, leaving a travel packer in the suspension before the race, to drive to the front and claim the first stage win Sunday in Martinsville. An issue with the lug nuts while pitting after the second stage meant he had to come back down pit road to tighten them, giving up all the track position he originally had. Those stage points proved invaluable, too. Late in the race, he started to lose ground and found himself in a tooth-and-nail fight with Harvick to take the final spot in the Championship 4. Harvick's desperation proved to be a step more than Hamlin's, which ultimately leaves Hamlin with a shot at the championship. Hamlin has two career wins at Phoenix, including the fall race last season. He only finished 20th there earlier this season, though.

Joey Logano – Logano entered Martinsville knowing he would have a chance to race for another championship this season at Phoenix. The Penske Racing driver has been quick, too. He has four consecutive top-10 finishes heading into the championship decider and scored his second podium finish of the Round of 8 this past week at Martinsville. The team has been focused on the championship race they will hope to have, while still turning in top results. He is also the most recent Phoenix winner. Logano may have the most going for him in this coming week's title decider with two career wins at the circuit. He also has three top-10s in the last three races there along with a total of 153 laps led in the last two races at the track.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski used two fourth- and one sixth-place finish in the Round of 8 to force his way into the Championship 4. He started on the front row at Martinsville and was quick enough to capitalize on the troubles by other championship contenders. A late speeding penalty almost sunk his championship hopes, however. Keselowski fought back and pushed his way into position to race for another championship with a fourth-place finish. Winning the 2020 title could be an uphill battle for him, though. Keselowski has never won at Phoenix. He finished second at the track once in 22 career tries and has an average finish of 13.5. He led 82 laps and finished 11th there earlier this season when teammate and championship rival Logano won.

DOWNGRADE

Kevin Harvick – Harvick started Sunday's race at Martinsville off the pace and then suffered a cut rear tire in the second stage. After pitting to change the tire, he ended up two laps down to the leaders. A caution quickly after from Brennan Poole gave him a lap back, but getting the second lap back proved to be a significant challenge. As the laps counted down, he watched his chances to advance to the final four evaporate. A desperate charge on Kyle Busch in the final corner ended his chance of capping off a dominant season with another championship title. Harvick has not finished outside of the top 10 at Phoenix since the spring of 2013. He has nine wins at the track with the most recent coming in the spring race of 2018.

Martin Truex Jr.  – Truex was one of the fastest cars on track at Martinsville from the moment the green flag waved. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver entered the race in a hole in the standings after a 20-point deduction last week from an unapproved spoiler. Truex knew the best path to the championship finale was to win. Unfortunately, a loose wheel with less than 50 laps remaining in the race put Truex in an insurmountable position as he slipped down the running order and watched his championship chances slip away. It never would have been an optimal venue for him to race for a championship, however. Truex has never won at Phoenix and has only led 123 total laps in 29 career starts. 

William Byron – Byron backed into the wall late in the final stage on Sunday, ending a streak of five consecutive top-15 finishes. Rudy Fugle was announced last week as the crew chief who will take over from Chad Knaus in 2021, which means the Byron-Knaus pairing has just one more race to produce a second victory. Byron's five Phoenix starts have produced just two top-10 finishes, though. While the young driver grabbed his first win this season and made the playoffs, his results just need a little more pace and consistency. Byron has shown he can be a regular in the playoff hunt, but he will need to work on advancing further. He will have a new crew chief and teammate (Kyle Larson) next season from whom to learn, and together they will work to put themselves into the Round of 8 with the hope of advancing to the championship finale.

Kurt Busch – After scoring an unlikely win to advance to the Round of 8, it was always going to be a tall order for Busch to advance to the championship finale. The elimination round also started with a nightmare 38th-place result after a DNF at Kansas Speedway. That was effectively the nail in the coffin for his championship hopes. While he started quickly at Martinsville on Sunday, he simply didn't have the pace to remain in contention and slipped quietly out of the championship battle. Still, it was a great season for Busch, who picked up a win, six top-fives and 18 top-10s with one race still remaining at Phoenix. Busch won at that track in 2005 and finished sixth there earlier this season. He picked up three top-10 finishes in the last five visits to the desert oval.

Alex Bowman – Bowman's impressive playoff run came to an end at Martinsville despite landing his sixth-place finish and third finish of sixth or better in the Round of 8. Bowman entered last week's race just below the cutoff for the Championship 4, and his best efforts weren't enough to get him over that hump and into the season finale. Bowman's performances should be a warning shot for the future, however. Teammate Elliott broke the seal to put Hendrick Motorsports back in the Championship 4, but Bowman's efforts and consistency throughout the playoffs could signal a dominant future from the wider organization in seasons to come. Next year he will move to the No. 48 car and Kyle Larson will join Hendrick in the No. 5. Bowman should be an exciting fantasy prospect in 2021. 

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Matt DiBenedetto – With all the fireworks of the playoffs going off around him, Matt DiBenedetto put his head down and got to work Sunday at Martinsville. The Wood Brothers Racing driver had never finished better than 16th at the flat oval, but he drove a mistake-free race to climb from the 19th starting position to 10th at the finish. Drives like that show what DiBenedetto is capable of in the series. He has one more season remaining with Wood Brothers after it was announced that Austin Cindric would replace him in the ride after next season. If DiBenedetto continues running like he did Sunday, he should be in the mix for another top ride. He has one more chance to add to his 2020 titles this week. He has consecutive 13th-place Phoenix finishes in his last two trips.