Hollywood Casino 400 Preview: The Round of 8 Begins

This week we kick off the Round of 8 in the Chase for the Cup.  For the eight remaining drivers in the playoff field the pressure continues to increase and so do the stakes.  This Sunday we travel to Kansas Speedway and take the next steps in determining this season's champion.  For the drivers that were fortunate enough to avoid trouble and elimination at the Charlotte Roval last week, the quest for the championship moves to this well-known intermediate oval. 

The seventh race in the Chase for the NASCAR Cup, the series pays its second visit of the season to Kansas Speedway just outside Kansas City for the Hollywood Casino 400.  When we think of the Kansas oval we think of the many intermediate ovals on the circuit.  This oval may not be exactly like Charlotte, Texas or Atlanta, but it could easily be the most important oval regarding the Chase for the NASCAR Cup Series championship by the time we reach Phoenix in November.  As we visit the 1.5-mile oval in Kansas this weekend the schedule offers up a huge advantage to fantasy racing players and the drivers alike.  For it was only 12 short weeks ago that the stars of NASCAR were locked in combat at this intermediate oval.  The data from that race, the Super Start Batteries 400, will be fresh and applicable to the field for this weekend's Hollywood Casino 400. 

The oval of Kansas Speedway is just our second intermediate oval event in the Chase for the Cup.  It is one of three races on ovals of this size in the 10-event Chase lineup that crowns our champion.  That means ovals of this configuration make up a significant 30-percent of the championship-crowning Chase for the Cup schedule.  So pay close attention this weekend as trends from this 400-mile race will likely set the stage at Texas Motor Speedway in two weeks.  While Kansas has been a track of manufacturer parity over the years, it's beginning to tilt in one direction.  Our race in July of this year went back in favor of Toyota.  Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. waged a three-way battle in that event, but it would be the No. 11 Toyota of Hamlin eventually coming out on top.  Hamlin and Toyota have now won the last two Kansas events.  That's a trend that we'll pay close attention to this weekend.  For the drivers still alive in the Chase for the Cup playoffs, this race will prove to be a big opportunity to race for a win that ensures a berth in the Championship 4.  So motivation to visit victory lane won't be in short supply in the Hollywood Casino 400. 

Since we're making our second visit of the season to Kansas Speedway, we need to take a brief look back at history at this intermediate oval.  These numbers will be even more important than normal and even more relevant given that we've seen a lot of repeat winners at this facility.  As you'll see in the table below, some of the hottest drivers in the series are making a very important start at Kansas Speedway this weekend.  Here are the loop stats for the last 25 races at Kansas Speedway.

The race earlier this year at Kansas Speedway was very entertaining.  It was Denny Hamlin's second-straight at the facility and one of seven so far in the 2020 season.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star would love to make it three Kansas victories in a row and lock up a spot in this season's Championship 4 at Phoenix.  Hamlin took the lead for the final time late in that 400-mile contest from Kevin Harvick and held on to grab the victory in the Super Start Batteries 400.  Hamlin has been a consistent performer on these intermediate ovals this season, but not a huge threat to win.  Runner-up finisher Brad Keselowski has been slumping of late.  He's looking to right the ship for a deeper drive into the playoffs and Kansas is coming up at a very opportune time.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford is coming back to Kansas Speedway at the right time seeking redemption.  For this duo and a handful of other hopefuls it's another opportunity to win this weekend and keep their championship hopes alive.  With championship implications weighing heavily, we expect to see some real urgency in the racing, and some rebound performances for drivers that got roughed up in the frantic racing at the Charlotte Roval this past weekend.  We'll highlight the drivers you need this Sunday afternoon and the ones you need to avoid in order to dominate the day at Kansas Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin had a bit of a subpar performance at the Roval last Sunday.  He'll be happy to start the next round of the Chase at an intermediate oval where he won earlier this season.  It's a great setup for a track that's been good for the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran over the years.  Hamlin has three victories and eight Top 5's for his career at Kansas Speedway.  He's won the last two events at this facility, and will be the driver to beat in Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400.  In this event one year ago Hamlin led a whopping 153 laps and dominated in reaching victory lane.  His start here in July saw the No. 11 Toyota lead 57 laps and out-battled Brad Keselowski for the win.  Hamlin has to be considered the top fantasy racing option in weekly lineup leagues this weekend.

Kevin Harvick – The Stewart Haas Racing star is a three-time Kansas winner, and he boasts a strong 31-percent career Top-5 rate at the oval coming into this weekend's action.  When the NASCAR Cup Series was last at Kansas Speedway, the driver of the No. 4 Ford started from the pole, led 9 laps and finished fourth in the Super Start Batteries 400.  Harvick will be looking for a bit of redemption this Sunday, and the automatic pass a win grants into the Championship round of the Chase.  Harvick has been pretty sharp in all four of his most recent intermediate oval outings, collecting Top 10's in all of them.  However, victory lane has been a bit elusive.  That could easily change in Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400.

Martin Truex Jr. – If the Joe Gibbs Racing star hopes to win a second championship, a victory at Kansas Speedway will go a long way to that end.  He's not been quite as dominant on intermediate ovals this season, but he's still been pretty strong.  A recent fourth-place finish at Las Vegas, and a third-place finish at Kansas Speedway in July indicate that this team is still dangerous on these style ovals.  Truex and the No. 19 team have been just a "tick off" at these intermediate ovals in 2020, but could quickly figure out what it takes to get over the top in the playoffs.  The veteran driver's sweep of this oval in 2017 and runner-up finish at Kansas in 2018 should be good reminders of this driver and team's potential.  Truex's third-place finish in July's Super Start Batteries 400 is just a sample of his potential.

Kurt Busch – Our last intermediate oval winner makes the contenders list this week.  Busch won at Las Vegas a couple weeks ago, and now he races in the Round of 8 of the Chase as a result.  He'll turn in another strong outing Sunday at Kansas Speedway.  The intermediate ovals have been good to this driver in recent weeks with one win, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his last four starts.  That's a strong 50-percent Top-5 rate over the span.  His recent Kansas stats are good as well.  Busch rides a three-race Kansas Top-10 streak into the weekend, including his ninth-place finish at Kansas Speedway in July.  The driver of the No. 1 CGR Chevrolet is looking to challenge for the championship, and it begins with a great run at Kansas Speedway in the Hollywood Casino 400. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star comes to the heartland oval this weekend with tons of motivation after his subpar finish at the Roval.  Keselowski currently sits third in the championship points, but needing to finish well at Kansas if he hopes to race for the championship in Phoenix.  The motivation and desire to win will be high with the No. 2 Penske Racing team.  Keselowski is normally pretty strong on these style tracks.  He's a two-time winner at Kansas Speedway, the latest coming in 2019.  The veteran driver also finished runner-up in July's Super Start Batteries 400.  Those efforts have elevated his career Top-10 rate at this oval to a respectable 52-percent.  Three of his last four Kansas starts have netted Keselowski Top 10's so he's been dialed-in recently at this facility. 

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing youngster is fresh off a strong Top-5 finish at the Charlotte Roval, and looking to build momentum into 2021.  The other good news for the No. 12 Ford team is that Blaney has been one of the more consistent finishers on the cookie cutter ovals this season.  Seven of his nine starts this season on the 1.5-mile ovals have fetched Top-10 results.  The latest was Blaney's solid seventh-place finish at Las Vegas just a couple weeks ago.  The driver of the No. 12 Ford led 15 laps at Kansas in July, but was saddled with an undeserved 20th-place finish.  No doubt this young driver has some unfinished business on his mind this weekend.  Blaney's 46-percent career Top-10 rate at Kansas Speedway is an assuring statistic for a driver looking to round out 2020 strong. 

Erik Jones – Jones' recent hot streak continued at Charlotte this past weekend.  The driver of the No. 20 Toyota is now riding a four-race Top-10 streak into Kansas this Sunday.  As a free agent driver eyeing potential suitors for next season, Jones is not disappointing in the eye-test category right now.  He's racing for a job next season and it certainly looks like it.  Jones has also been strong in recent intermediate oval events, nabbing a three-race Top-10 streak across Fort Worth, Kansas and Las Vegas.  As it relates to Kansas Speedway, this may be one of his favorite intermediate ovals on the circuit.  With three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes to-date, Jones' career Top-5 and Top-10 rates stand at very strong 38- and 63-percent.  With a five-race Kansas Top-10 streak entering this weekend, how can you lose deploying Jones in your fantasy racing lineup?

Chase Elliott – Intermediate ovals have not been the best tracks for the No. 9 Chevrolet team this season.  However, everything is turning to gold for Elliott of late.  He's grabbed one victory and four Top 10's in the last five races entering this weekend.  Elliott is leading laps and racing among the leaders each week.  This driver and team are focused and intent on advancing into the championship round of the Chase.  The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has nine-career starts at Kansas Speedway, and owns one victory and five Top-10 finishes.  He won this event two years ago in a surprising performance, and he has three Top-5 finishes in his last four Kansas starts.  Elliott is warming up to Kansas Speedway with each start.  He'll use that confidence well in Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Kansas & solid upside

Alex Bowman – After last week's eighth-place finish at Charlotte, Bowman assured his advancement into the Round of 8 of the Chase.  He sits seventh overall in the standings and needing good performances in the next three races to advance to Phoenix.  Bowman and the No. 88 team have been strong the last several weeks, and the intermediate ovals have been a part of that success.  The Hendrick Motorsports driver grabbed an eighth-place finish at Kansas back in July and followed that with a stronger fifth-place finish at Las Vegas a couple weeks ago.  He's really stepped up his performance on the intermediate ovals compared to earlier this season.  Bowman's 40-percent Top-10 rate at Kansas has only been bolstered by his three Top 10's here in his last four starts (7.5 average finish).

Kyle Busch – Despite his elimination from the Chase after last Sunday's race at the Roval, Busch still brings some fantasy racing utility to Kansas Speedway.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota has had a really tough season, but he's still been pretty sharp on the intermediate tracks.  Busch is a one-time Kansas winner and sports a pedestrian 44-percent Top-10 rate at the facility.  His visit here in July of this year yielded 52 laps led and a respectable 11th-place finish.  Busch has been a 56-percent Top-10 finisher on the 1.5-mile tracks this season, including his fourth-, 11th- and sixth-place finishes in the last three starts.  He has Top-10 potential this Sunday afternoon at the Kansas oval, but not likely Top-5 potential.      

Aric Almirola – Despite his exclusion from the NASCAR playoffs, Almirola still has a lot to race for in the remaining events of 2020.  The Stewart Haas Racing veteran would like the best possible points finish he can get and he still has four races left to make that happen. Almirola has been a steady performer on the intermediate oval circuit this season.  His four Top 10's check in at a respectable 45-percent rate. One of those performances was his good effort at Kansas Speedway in July. Almirola started third on the grid and peddled the No. 10 Ford Mustang to a strong sixth-place finish in that 400-mile battle. That Top-10 finish was his seventh-career at Kansas Speedway and has boosted his career average there to 41-percent.  Most of those seven Top 10's have come since the 2017 season, so the success has been recent.       

William Byron – After an inconsistent early-season, Byron really picked up the pace starting in August. His win at Daytona in August coupled with fourth- and sixth-place finishes the last two events assure that Byron is going to round out 2020 on a positive note.  The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has also had an inconsistent season on the intermediate ovals, however, Kanas Speedway in July was a bright spot.  Byron led 27 laps in that event before eventually finishing a respectable 10th-place in the Super Start Batteries 400.  That was his second-consecutive Top-10 finish at the Kansas oval.  We expect that the young driver will continue to improve at this oval as the starts pile up.  Byron should challenge the Top 10 in Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400.           

Cole Custer – The surprising rookie has shown some potential, but up-and-down performances on the cookie cutter ovals this season.  Custer grabbed his first-career Cup Series win in a shocker at Kentucky Speedway during the summer.  The other highlight was his strong seventh-place finish at Kansas Speedway in July.  Custer's 16th-place finish at Las Vegas most recently wasn't terrible, but it also wasn't quite as much as we expected.  One pattern for sure has taken shape, and that's the driver of the No. 41 Ford seems to like the lower banked intermediate ovals over the deeper banked ones.  This will be just Custer's second-career Cup Series start at Kansas Speedway, but he's set the bar pretty high with his seventh-place finish in July's Super Start Batteries 400.     

Tyler Reddick – The rookie driver has been one of the better performing youngsters on the cookie cutter oval circuit in 2020.  Of late, Reddick has been pretty sharp outside of a mishap and crash at Las Vegas.  He's grabbed two Top-5, three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in his last five intermediate oval starts.  The average finish across the span stands at a very respectable 13.4.  Reddick has just two-career Cup Series starts at Kansas Speedway, but those results have been good.  He scored a surprising ninth-place finish in his debut at Kansas in 2019, and he nabbed a steady 13th-place finish here in July's Super Start Batteries 400.  Reddick looks tabbed to be a Top-15 finisher in the Hollywood Casino 400. 

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Joey Logano – Despite his playoff and championship hopes still being alive after the Charlotte Roval, Logano is a suspect driver for fantasy racing at Kansas this week.  The Penske Racing star has been an inconsistent performer on these style tracks since the COVID shut down eliminated qualifying and practice from the typical NASCAR weekend.  Logano has really labored to make that adjustment.  He has just one Top 10 performance in his last five intermediate oval events.  One of those disappointments was his crash and DNF at Kansas Speedway in July.  That performance only added to an already dubious recent history at the oval.  Logano won at Kansas in 2014 and 2015, but it's been tough plowing ever since.  He's failed to crack the Top 10 in his last three Kansas starts, and is looking like a risky proposition for Sunday afternoon.

Jimmie Johnson – With his 13th-place finish at the Roval this past week, Johnson saw his current Top-10 drought grow to seven races.  The seven-time champion will look to hit the reset button at Kansas Speedway, although it could be a tall order.  With so many other drivers and teams with so much on the line, the competition will be hotter than ever.  Johnson's last three cookie cutter oval outings have been a real mixed bag.  He grabbed an 11th-place finish at Las Vegas, but preceded that with 26th- and 32nd-place finishes.  Johnson's outing here in July of this season resulted in a disappointing DNF and 32nd-place finish in the Super Start Batteries 400.  It's best to bypass Johnson this week in weekly lineup leagues.   

Bubba Wallace – One of the young drivers who has struggled tremendously this season with the very handling-sensitive intermediate ovals is Wallace.  His nine starts on these style tracks has yielded only one Top-10 finish, and five finishes outside the Top 25.  The average finish across the span checks in at a lowly 24.6.  That's a bit worse than Wallace performed on these style ovals in 2019.  The Richard Petty Motorsports driver has finishes of 23rd-, 26th-, 29th-, 35th- and 37th-place (30.0 average) in his five-career starts at Kansas Speedway.  It's best to avoid the No. 43 Chevrolet team in weekly lineup and daily fantasy racing leagues this weekend.

Austin Dillon – The driver of the No. 3 RCR Chevrolet was on fire on these style ovals for most of the season.  That's why it's so puzzling that he's gone so cold of late.  Dillon had one victory and four Top 10's in his first seven 1.5-mile oval events of the season.  However, his last two starts have been nightmarish.  Dillon labored to a disappointing 27th-place finish at Kansas Speedway in July, and his recent start at Las Vegas was a very disappointing 32nd-place finish in the South Point 400.  The Kansas oval has been a track of very little success for the driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet to this point in his career.  With just three Top 10's in 14 starts, the average checks in at a shaky 21-percent.  Dillon hasn't visited the Top 10 at Kansas since the 2016 season.