Daytona 500 Preview: The Great American Race

We're set to begin another season of NASCAR racing, and to get things started we head to the historic Daytona International Speedway for the season opener.  The Daytona 500, also known as the Great American Race, kicks off each NASCAR Cup Series season and is by far the most prestigious event in the sport.  The Daytona 500 is on par with the NFL's Super Bowl or Major League Baseball's World Series.  It's unique in the fact that it opens the racing season rather than ends it.  No other major sport can make that same claim.  All eyes in the motorsports world will be focused on Daytona this weekend, because the winner of this race is not only making history, but he's also setting the pace for the season to come. 

If there's one thing that we can count on with Speedweeks at Daytona, its lots of practice laps.  With all the exhibition and qualifying races, the drivers really get to know what they can and can't do with their cars over the week of events.  Once the drivers get familiar with the aero package and handling of their cars, we should see lots of three-wide, big pack racing in this season's Daytona 500.  When we get down to the final 10 laps and crunch time, it will be interesting to see how the drivers mix it up looking for that perfect drafting partner.  Pushing and bump drafting are out of the question, so we'll see some precariously close drafting, side-drafting and quickly shifting lanes of racing as drivers look for any open pavement they can find to get to the front.  We'll see the pack racing, and unsettled cars that rattles nerves for 475 miles, and then a 25-mile wild sprint to the finish which will have the top contenders climbing over one-another to get to the checkered flag first.  As we saw in last season's Daytona 500, it can make for some pretty big fireworks coming to the checkered flag on that last lap. 

This will be our first race since the teams loaded up at Phoenix last November, and crowned Chase Elliott the NASCAR Cup Series champion for the first time.  While super speedway racing isn't by itself completely indicative of what we can expect for the entire season, it does give us a good preview of who has the horsepower, handling and teamwork flowing right out of the gate.  We expect most of the teams that ended the 2020 season on a high note to continue their momentum with the short off-season and right into the Daytona 500.  The teams of Penske Racing would be a good example of this point.  Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney put together good streaks of consistency as the season closed last November.  Those three drivers combined for one victory, 10 Top-5 and 14 Top-10 finishes over the last six races of last season.  Not to be outdone, the trio of Joe Gibbs Racing (Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr.), grabbed two wins, five Top-5 and 10 Top-10 finishes over those final six events.  We expect those teams to come running out of the blocks this February.  In the opposite sense, some of the teams that struggled through the Chase for the Cup last fall have a lot to prove during Speedweeks.  Drivers like Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola had better hit the ground running at Daytona, or their season-ending slumps are likely to continue well into 2021.

Before we dive into the driver picks, let's take a minute to look at the loop statistics for Daytona International Speedway.  The loop stats are the numbers from NASCAR's electronic timing and scoring from past races.  They can track virtually any statistic possible in auto racing.  For the purpose of our examination we've chosen to look at average finish, quality passes, fastest laps, laps led, laps inside the Top 15 and the driver rating derived from those.  These stats are pretty indicative of the best performing drivers at a particular oval.  From these and other numbers NASCAR derives the driver rating.  From an overall performance standpoint, it's a great measure of track specific performance.  Here are the loop stats for the last 32 races at Daytona International Speedway.

In this race one year ago we crowned third-time Daytona 500 winner, Denny Hamlin.  There were an exciting 24 lead changes among 13 different drivers.  Those figures are pretty much the norm when compared to the previous three Daytona 500's.  The whopping nine caution periods due to crashes or debris played a bit of a role in keeping the lead change totals down.  When the dust settled we saw Hamlin hold off Ryan Blaney by the narrowest of margins as the front of the field was engulfed in a major accident coming to the checkered flag.  Ryan Newman's car would be t-boned and go airborne coming to the finish line.  He would be extracted from the car and spend some weeks in the hospital recovering from head injuries, but would fortunately be all right.

For the driver of the No. 11 Toyota, it would be his third-career victory in the Great American Race and capped one of the most thrilling races of the entire season.  How can we top that in 2021?  Considering that NASCAR returned to Daytona last August and held a race that was 45 laps shorter, but had an astronomical 35 total lead changes, we could be poised for major thrills.  It might be difficult to replicate that dramatic finish from last season's Daytona 500, but the entertainment factor should be off the charts.  As the above electronic scoring statistics show, we have a handful of drivers from many different stables that have a nose for the front at the Daytona oval.  We'll outline the usual suspects at this oval as well as a few drivers who may surprise on Sunday and give you the edge that you need to win your fantasy racing leagues for the season-opening Daytona 500.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – With his victory one year ago, Hamlin is now a three-time Daytona 500 victor.  He is now the active wins leader at Daytona and will carry that top contender status into this weekend's Great American Race.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led 530 laps for his career at Daytona International Speedway, and it's really a wonder that he doesn't have more than just three Daytona 500 wins.  He's been one of the more dominant drivers in recent superspeedway races with three wins and seven Top-5 finishes in his last 10-combined Daytona/Talladega starts.  Hamlin has become the driver to beat each time the NASCAR Cup Series visits Daytona International Speedway.

Ryan Blaney – The bolt out of the blue this weekend could be Blaney and his No. 12 Penske Racing team.  This young driver has been trying to match Denny Hamlin stride-for-stride in this type of racing the past two seasons.  Blaney has tallied two victories, and four Top-10 finishes in his last five superspeedway events.  One of those great efforts was his runner-up finish in last season's Daytona 500.  The driver of the No. 12 Ford Mustang hasn't just been opportunistic; he's led a lot of laps on these big ovals as well.  Blaney has 113-combined laps led in his last five starts between Daytona and Talladega.  Don't be surprised if Blaney hoists the Harley J. Earl Trophy over his head for the first time this Sunday afternoon.  

Chase Elliott – The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion will look to make a statement in the first race of his title defense season.  Elliott is a one-time superspeedway winner (Talladega 2019) and he's really come of age in this style of racing.  The Hendrick Motorsports star has overcome many crashes and DNF's from earlier in his career on these tracks to begin posting some fantastic results.  Elliott has one win, three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his last seven superspeedway starts.  His last two appearances between Daytona and Talladega in the last half of last season netted a runner-up Daytona finish and 41 laps led and fifth-place Talladega finish.  The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has graduated from just leading laps in these races, to contending for wins and finishing these events.   

Joey Logano – Logano is the 2015 Daytona 500 champion and he's a four-time victor between the ovals of Talladega and Daytona.  The Penske Racing star had a tough season on the big ovals in 2020, but we won't let that skew our opinion of him this weekend.  Logano crashed out of three of his four superspeedway starts last season.  However, upon closer examination we see that he led 120-combined laps in those events.  The speed of the No. 22 Penske team is undeniable.  Logano's past results at Daytona and Talladega back this fact up.  If he can get off on the right foot this week, there's no reason to believe he won't be among the leaders Sunday when the laps are winding down.  Logano will vie for a second Daytona 500 trophy this weekend.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

William Byron – The light bulb has seemed to come on for this young driver and team.  Byron struggled in his first couple seasons of Cup Series superspeedway racing, but the results began to turn to the bright side beginning in late 2019.  It started with Bryon's surprising runner-up finish in that season's summer Daytona race.  He would then return last summer and pick up his first-career Cup Series victory in the same Daytona event.  Byron now sports one win, one runner-up finish and three Top-5 finishes in his last six superspeedway starts.  With 49-combined laps led during this span, the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has been running up front a lot, not just finishing there.  Byron has great potential to exceed expectations in this Great American Race.      

Aric Almirola – One of the most consistent performers in the NASCAR Cup Series on the big ovals in Almirola.  He had a bit of a tough season on these tracks in 2020, but should bounce back nicely in 2021.  Almirola won at Talladega in the fall of 2018 and he won the summer Daytona race in 2014.  The driver of the No. 10 SHR Ford brings that homerun potential to the table in superspeedway racing.  Almirola very nearly won last spring's Talladega race, finishing third in a wild dash to the checkered flag.  That was his lone bright spot in this style of racing last year.  The veteran driver now has two victories, seven Top-5 and 12 Top-10 finishes for his career at both Daytona and Talladega.  Almirola knows when to make his move late in these races, and brings that potential into Sunday's Daytona 500.     

Kyle Larson – Larson will kick off his return to NASCAR's top division with his start this weekend in the Great American Race. The new Hendrick Motorsports driver was making a good bit of headway in this style of racing before his departure from Chip Ganassi Racing. Larson nabbed two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last six superspeedway starts.  Those numbers include his last speedway start which was a strong 10th-place finish in last season's Daytona 500.  Larson will move into arguably a better superspeedway team in 2021.  His new No. 5 Chevrolet team is simply the rebranded No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports team of last season.  Alex Bowman raced this same car to three Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes in his last eight starts between Daytona and Talladega.  We expect Larson to make a big impression in his first start with his new race team.       

Ryan Newman – In this event one year ago we very nearly saw Newman lose his racing career and almost his life in a harrowing crash coming to the checkered flag.  The veteran driver would have to be carefully cut from his vehicle and would sustain serious head injuries.  The great news is that Newman fully recovered and resumed racing in a few short weeks.  While the remainder of 2020 didn't go quite that well for the driver of the No. 6 Ford, Newman still showed real skill and resolve in his Daytona 500 effort and then his sixth-place finish at Talladega last fall.  This driver and team excel at superspeedway racing.  Newman is a Daytona 500 winner (2008) and he has five Top-10 finishes in his last seven Daytona starts.  There's no doubt that Roush Fenway Racing will give him a fast Ford Mustang this week, and Newman will know what to do with it.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Daytona & solid upside

Kyle Busch – Perhaps the biggest risk/reward driver in the field this weekend is Busch in the No. 18 Toyota.  He's a one-time winner at Daytona, but he's never won the Daytona 500.  Busch's history at this oval is an uneven affair of brilliant finishes, and devastating DNF's.  However, speed has never been an issue.  With over 450-laps led at Daytona, Busch is almost always racing near the front.  The bottom line is that this driver and team are a roll of the dice, but come with tremendous upside.  We believe the Joe Gibbs Racing star has what it takes to be impressive this Sunday.  Busch is the epitome of a "sleeper" in this event, but can deliver the results to make the risk worth it. 

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports driver has been improving at superspeedway racing the past couple seasons.  Bowman looked very strong in 2020, claiming two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in the four events between Daytona and Talladega.  The last of his Daytona starts netted an impressive seventh-place finish in last August in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.  Now with nine-career Daytona starts under his belt, Bowman is beginning to understand racing in the draft and partnering to move through the field.  With two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last five Daytona starts, Bowman has lowered his average finish at this facility to a respectable 16.7.  That makes him worthy of fantasy racing selection in all game formats. 

Erik Jones – Jones possesses the superspeedway "gift" of driving.  He brings that upside to his new race team at Richard Petty Motorsports.  Jones nabbed his first-career Cup Series victory in the summer race at Daytona in 2018.  Since then, the young driver has been a high return performer on these big ovals the last two seasons.  Jones has one victory, four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts between Daytona and Talladega.  This same No. 43 Richard Petty Motorsports race team powered Bubba Wallace to one Top-5 and three Top-15 finishes on the superspeedway circuit in 2020, so speed has not been a problem of late.  Jones' driving skills and this team's level of performance could yield big results deeper in the driver field.        

Chris Buescher – If there's one thing Buescher excelled at with his new Roush Fenway Racing team last season, it was superspeedway racing.  The driver of the No. 17 Ford Mustang picked up on the great record Ricky Stenhouse Jr. accomplished in the same car and carried it into 2020.  Buescher nabbed one Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes between Daytona and Talladega last season, with a brilliant third-place effort in last season's Daytona 500.  That effort added to an already impressive resume for Buescher at the historic Florida oval.  He now has three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in his last seven Daytona starts.  Considering those efforts are spread between two different race teams, it's even more impressive.  Buescher is a great fantasy play for Sunday's Daytona 500.     

Ross Chastain – Chastain got a full-time promotion to the NASCAR Cup Series during the off-season, and he'll get to work on making an impression right away.  The journeyman driver takes over the No. 42 Chevrolet of Chip Ganassi Racing and he'll partner with teammate, Kurt Busch, heading into the 2021 campaign.  Chastain has yet to really make his mark at Daytona on the Cup level (one Top-10 and two Top-20 finishes in five starts) but he has a long history of racing well at this oval in the Xfinity Series.  He has one victory and five Top-10 finishes in his seven most recent starts at Daytona.  Chastain has what it takes to lead laps and he knows how to navigate the turbulent field of a superspeedway race.        

Corey LaJoie – In the lower tier of the field, we offer LaJoie for your fantasy racing consideration.  Superspeedway racing has really been his niche since becoming a full-time Cup Series driver in 2017.  All of his three-career Top-10 finishes have come on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega.  LaJoie's superspeedway average finish (25.2) is almost three positions better than his career average across all tracks.  Daytona International Speedway in particular has been kind to the journeyman driver.  Two of LaJoie's last three starts at Daytona have netted Top-10 finishes, including his eighth-place finish in last season's Daytona 500.  He saddles up with a new race team in 2021 with Spire Motorsports.  This is the same outfit that powered Justin Haley to a shocking Daytona win in the summer of 2019.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is the winningest active driver on superspeedways with six combined victories between Daytona and Talladega.  That is an awesome stat, but it has been overshadowed by two factors of late.  Keselowski is a better performer at Talladega than Daytona, and he's been beset with incredibly bad luck in superspeedway racing the last four seasons.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford hasn't cracked the Top 10 at Talladega in his last six attempts, and he's only cracked the Top 10 once in his last eight Daytona starts.  Instead, it's been a rash of crashes and DNF's for the Penske Racing veteran.  Six of his last eight Daytona starts have ended early in the garage with a DNF.  With just a 22-percent career Top-10 rate at Daytona, it's best to look past Keselowski this weekend and not take the risk. 

Martin Truex Jr. – Daytona International Speedway certainly has gotten the best of Truex over his 16-season career.  In 31 starts the Joe Gibbs Racing star has just five Top-10 finishes to his credit (16-percent).  However, he almost always brings fast cars into the race, and that should be the case again this Sunday.  Don't be duped by a good performance in the qualifying races or lap-time qualifying.  Truex's record of finishing these races is poor at best.  Last season is a great case study.  Despite leading 26 laps combined between Daytona and Talladega, Truex collected finishes of 32nd-, 23rd-, 4th- and 23rd-place.  It's tempting to deploy Truex and his Joe Gibbs Racing team in the Daytona 500, but the risks outweigh the potential rewards.  This driver simply struggles with this style of NASCAR racing.      

Kurt Busch – The 2017 Daytona 500 winner has begun to see his stellar record at Daytona begin to erode over the past three seasons.  Busch used to be one of the most consistent and reliable performers at Daytona International Speedway, but he's drifted into a rash of bad luck at this oval since 2018.  For the first 16 seasons of his career, Busch had just one DNF at Daytona vs. a countless array of Top-5 and Top-10 finishes.  However, his last seven starts at the Florida speedway have seen Busch crash out and fail to finish in five of those events.  That bad luck seems to have drifted into his Talladega performances as well.  Four of his last five superspeedway starts have ended early in the garage area.  Despite Busch's years of experience, he makes a risky fantasy play in the Daytona 500.    

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The one-time Daytona winner (2017) has seen his superspeedway prowess dim since last season.  Stenhouse's move to JTG Daugherty Racing wasn't seamless at all, and certainly not in terms of superspeedway racing.  Last season's starts between Daytona and Talladega netted 20th-, 2nd-, 32nd- and 38th-place finishes.  Not quite the consistency nor excellence we've come to expect with this driver on the big ovals.  Daytona alone has descended into a deep, dark struggle for the driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet.  Since that win in 2017, Stenhouse has failed to crack the Top 10 in his last six Daytona starts.  That was underscored by his most recent outing which was a 32nd-place finish last August.