Ambetter Health 400 Preview: Mid-Sized Superspeedway

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

This weekend NASCAR pulls into Atlanta Motor Speedway for the first of two visits in the 2025 season. The lightning-fast intermediate oval will host the Ambetter Health 400 this Sunday afternoon. Racing at the newly reconfigured Atlanta is somewhat similar to the just-completed Daytona 500. This track produces high speeds and lots of side-by-side racing action. In addition, the Atlanta oval underwent a big repaving and redesign project during the off-season of 2021. The asphalt at Atlanta had not been repaved since 1997, making it the oldest surface that NASCAR competed on. In addition, the banking was given a radical redesign. The former 24-degree corner banking was increased to a whopping 28-degrees while keeping the banking on the straights at a modest five-degrees. The racing groove was also narrowed from 55 to 40 feet, coupling the higher speeds in the turns with less room to move about. Atlanta is now truly like no other intermediate oval on the NASCAR circuit. The racing at Atlanta the last three seasons has resembled more of the action that we see on the larger, superspeedway ovals like Daytona and Talladega. Aerodynamics, drafting and moving through the field with momentum are now the standard characteristics of Atlanta, and all that action packed into a 1.5-mile oval.  

The intermediate oval is the most frequent type of track found on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. This event will likely be a big outlier thanks to the radically new configuration of Atlanta Motor Speedway and what we witnessed here the last three seasons. Rather than dive into years of electronic loop scoring data, we've chosen to focus more on the recent standard statistics at Atlanta Motor Speedway. We feel the drivers who've succeeded here since the reconfiguration are more worthy of the fantasy focus. Here are the standard stats for the last six races at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

With Joey Logano's victory at Atlanta last fall, Ford charged to its second victory in the last four races at the "new" Atlanta oval and promptly halted Chevrolet's two-race win streak there. The NASCAR Cup Series raced earlier last season (this event one year ago) at AMS and Daniel Suarez pulled off a thrilling victory over Ryan Blaney and gave Chevrolet their fourth win on the "new" Atlanta oval. That performance extended a two-race Chevy wins streak at AMS and established a good bit of dominance for the brand. With the continuing saga of the new configuration, it will be interesting to see if Chevrolet can regain their success at the Georgia speedway or if Ford will prevail. Additionally, when will Toyota pull off their first Atlanta win?

Kyle Busch was our last Atlanta victor for Toyota (2013). Now that he's moved on to a Chevrolet team, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick would seem best positioned to upset Ford and Chevrolet to put the Toyota brand back in victory lane at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Hamlin is a one-time Atlanta winner and both Bell and Reddick have challenged for the win and cracked the Top 5 at Atlanta since the reconfiguration. If superspeedway racing has shown us anything, it's that anything can and will happen. Hamlin, Bell, Reddick and their Toyota teammates will have a lot to prove on the reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway. Since this race will be a bit more challenging to forecast, and historical data is only marginally helpful, we're going to have to examine the last six races on Atlanta Motor Speedway very closely as well as look back to the Daytona 500. Right now, current hot streaks may play the biggest role in determining who has success on this higher-banked and repaved Atlanta oval. We'll give you a run down of the drivers you need this Sunday afternoon at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and a few who could surprise in the Ambetter Health 400.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

William Byron – The Daytona 500 winner will look to carry the momentum of his huge win and dominate at Atlanta. He's now a two-time winner on this current configuration of AMS. With 173 laps led during this six-race span, the Hendrick Motorsports star is clearly the most successful driver at the new Atlanta. Since the track has been reconfigured, it behaves more like a superspeedway these days. That makes these Atlanta events a bit treacherous and filled with hazards. Byron has been rolled up in a couple of those incidents in two other Atlanta Motor Speedway starts, sandwiched in between the two victories. However, the No. 24 Chevrolet team seems to be very dialed into this current track configuration. The 50-percent Top-10 rate on the higher banks of Atlanta make a big statement.  

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is one of the most successful superspeedway drivers of the past few seasons, so that makes him a natural selection among the contenders at Atlanta. His six prior starts since the track was redone have netted three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes and a total of 106 laps led. The average finish stands at a robust 7.2. The Penske Racing star has been battling among the leaders in all these events since the track was reconfigured. Blaney has also qualified extremely well during this six-race span, garnering a miniscule 3.5 average start. That excellence in qualifying certainly helps a good bit when it comes to contending for wins here and Top-10 finishes. His second- and third-place finishes at AMS last season stand out and likely predict a first-career Atlanta win for Blaney on the new configuration.

Joey Logano – The winner of the last race at Atlanta Motor Speedway last fall returns to defend his turf this weekend. Logano qualified a strong seventh-place, only led 9 laps but would capture his second victory on the new track layout with his win in the Quaker State 400. The reconfiguration led to his first-career victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway in 2023, and it has boosted his average finish to 15.9 at AMS since the reconfiguration. Logano's prowess at superspeedway racing is well known and his Daytona and Talladega victories attest to this fact. Coming off a lot of laps led but crash and DNF in the Daytona 500, the rebound performance is an easy call to place this driver and team among the top contenders for the Ambetter Health 400. Logano will battle among the leaders and contend for the win Sunday afternoon at the Georgia speedway.

Christopher Bell – Bell has finished inside the Top 5 in two of his last three starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He's also had a couple poor finishes there as well since the new track design. Still, we believe in the skill of the driver of the No. 20 Toyota. Bell has shown a real improvement in superspeedway racing over the past couple seasons and that also translates well to AMS. His lats start at Atlanta is a good look for the driver and team. While Bell didn't qualify the best (26th-place) he seemed to have little problem racing to a strong fourth-place finish in last September's Quaker State 400. That was the Joe Gibbs Racing star's last look at Atlanta and a good one at that. We expect him to carry that performance into Sunday's Ambetter Health 400.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – Elliott's home state track has been very generous to him since the rework of the oval. He captured the victory from the pole in the summer event at Atlanta and he grabbed a sixth-place finish in the spring of 2022 race. The 125 combined laps led at Atlanta Motor Speedway since the reconfiguration simply cannot be ignored. His last start at the track last September earned a steady eighth-place finish in the Quaker State 400. The 8.6 average finish that Elliott and the No. 24 team boasts since the reconfiguration is another statistic that is difficult to ignore. The Hendrick Motorsports star has been racing among the Top 10 in these Atlanta races and we don't see that changing ahead of Sunday's second race of the 2025 season.        

Daniel Suarez – The driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet has been as sharp as any driver in the Cup Series since Atlanta Motor Speedway underwent its makeover. Suarez has a win and two runner-up finishes in his last three starts alone at this oval. Add in the two other Top 10's and he now boasts a win, four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in the six events. That works out to a razor sharp 7.3 average finish for the veteran Trackhouse Racing driver. We've seen a whole lot of Suarez racing up front at Atlanta the past couple seasons and we don't expect that to change. Sunday's 400-mile battle will offer some surprises but it should also offer some expectations, and Suarez should fall into that category.   

Kyle Busch – On the old configuration of Atlanta, Busch was a two-time winner and respectable 46-percent Top-10 finisher. When the changes took place prior to the 2022 season, Busch had some trouble adjusting to the new banking and narrow grooves. However, Busch would reap the benefits of that transition two seasons ago. The Richard Childress Racing star would grab 10th- and fifth-place finishes at AMS in 2023. The drafting and momentum runs are something that Busch is pretty comfortable with as he showed on superspeedways last season as well. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet returned to Atlanta last season and grabbed third- and seventh-place finishes in the midst of a terrible season. As the three-year-old pavement at AMS continues to age, the racing here will only get better and so will Busch.   

Austin Cindric – Superspeedway Racing has always been a big part of Cindric's success. From his Daytona 500 victory to his performance at Daytona this past Sunday, the Penske Racing youngster seems to have a nose for the pack/drafting style of racing. Atlanta has mostly become this style of racing since the reconfiguration. Cindric has nabbed two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes at AMS along with a strong 146 laps led since the reconfiguration. The driver of the No. 2 Ford looked very strong in the Daytona 500 this past weekend, qualifying on the outside pole and leading 59 laps before an eventual eighth-place finish. Cindric should be motivated for a good Atlanta outing this Sunday.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Atlanta & solid upside

Ross Chastain – Chastain is looking to shake off his bad luck and crash at Daytona this past week. Atlanta Motor Speedway is a good oval to get him back on the right track. The first year of the reconfiguration (2022) he scored a pair of runner-up finishes on the new high banks. In this event one year ago the Trackhouse Racing veteran turned in a steady seventh-place finish. Last September the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet led 13 laps and battled among the leaders before coming home a respectable 13th-place in the Quaker State 400. Chastain has led 92 total laps on the new Atlanta which ranks him among the best in the Cup Series and his 12.0 average finish is a reliable statistic to fall back on.      

Chase Briscoe – He certainly flexed his muscles at Daytona last weekend. Briscoe piloted the No. 19 Toyota to the pole position and fourth-place finish in the Great American Race. Now he'll look to carry that momentum into Atlanta this week. Briscoe hasn't had that much luck with finishes on the new Atlanta layout, but he's qualified extremely well with a pole position in 2022 and sharp 7.5 average start. He qualified well in both of last season's Atlanta events but found multi-car accidents in both. We believe this weekend's Ambetter Health 400 will fetch a career-best finish for Briscoe on the new Atlanta configuration.    

Tyler Reddick – Reddick's strength isn't superspeedway racing, so we've slotted him the sleepers list this week for Atlanta. That said, he finished an impressive runner-up this past Sunday at Daytona. The 23XI Racing youngster has grabbed a pair of Top 10's in his last four Atlanta Motor Speedway starts. Reddick came from mid-pack on the starting grid to earn a dazzling sixth-place finish in last September's Quaker State 400. That was his last start at Atlanta and good indicator of potential for this weekend. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota is steadily improving in this form of stock car racing. He should have the speed to impress once again at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Alex Bowman – After racking up a strong sixth-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500, we are going to be optimistic about Bowman's follow up effort at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The mid-Georgia oval has only yielded a 33-percent Top-10 rate to the veteran driver since the track's makeover. However, Bowman's best finish came in his last start the track last September. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet qualified a steady 11th on the starting grid and drove to a masterful fifth-place finish in last season's Quaker State 400. Bowman and this race team have good superspeedway racing skills, but it's taken just a bit for him to figure out this new configuration of Atlanta. It looks like he's ready to start stacking the Top 10's here.     

Erik Jones – After scoring a strong 12th-place finish in the Great American Race to kick off the season, Jones comes to Atlanta to keep things rolling this Sunday. The Legacy Motor Club driver should do just that given his success at AMS since the reconfiguration. The driver of the No. 43 Toyota has two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes at Atlanta Motor Speedway since the revamp. The average finish stands at a respectable 14.7 for Jones and his team. Considering that he is coming off a good finish at Daytona and visiting a track this week that he's very comfortable with, Jones should stay locked in for the Ambetter Health 400.

Corey Lajoie – Superspeedway racing is Lajoie's best craft. Seven of his 11-career Top-10 finishes have come on superspeedway ovals, and if you throw the new Atlanta into the mix, make it nine Top 10's. The Rick Ware Racing veteran has grabbed a pair of Top-5 and four Top-15 finishes in his last six Atlanta starts for a steady 14.8 average finish. Lajoie's Atlanta qualifying hasn't been the greatest (29.8 average start) but that has not prevented him from driving through the field and grabbing quality finishes. He and the No. 01 RWR team have some momentum to start this season after leading 10 laps and battling among the leaders at Daytona last weekend and it seems very opportunistic that the schedule offers up Atlanta right on the heels of Daytona.   

Slow Down – Drivers to Avoid This Week

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a one-time winner on the old configuration of Atlanta Motor Speedway and he's nabbed 10 Top-10 finishes over the years at the mid-Georgia oval. Despite his prowess in superspeedway racing, Hamlin has been a little slow to adapt to the higher banking of Atlanta. His six starts since the track's makeover have only yielded one Top-10 finish and four finishes outside the Top 20, including a pair outside the Top 20 last season. The average finish at the new AMS is checking in at a subpar 20.2. Hamlin found heartache on the last lap of last Sunday's Daytona 500 and we're afraid he's in for another tough go in the Ambetter Health 400.

Kyle Larson – The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet had his usual superspeedway troubles last weekend and finished a subpar 20th-place in the Daytona 500 last Sunday. Now the series comes to Atlanta Motor Speedway for similar racing action, but on a considerably smaller oval. Larson has never really been that fond of AMS and especially after the reconfiguration. His six starts have netted five DNF's and one 13th-place finish. Larson's average finish at Atlanta over the span is a troublesome 29.8. Despite qualifying extremely well on the new Atlanta (8.7 average start) and leading some laps on occasion, he's battled some real struggles here. In weekly lineup and salary cap leagues it's best to pass on this driver and team this week.  

Noah Gragson – Gragson's Daytona 500 wouldn't exactly go to accordingly to plan. He'd qualify a subpar 32nd on the starting grid and fall a couple laps down after getting involved in some on-track incidents. The driver of the No. 4 Ford would end up a disappointing 28th-place in the Great American Race. Unfortunately, we think Gragson will be in for more struggles this week at Atlanta Motor Speedway. In his six starts at AMS after the track reconfiguration, he's qualified poorly (23.3) and finished poorly (31.0). Gragson has been involved in a number of accidents here and collected four DNF's in those six events. It's best to steer clear of Gragson and the No. 4 team this Sunday in Atlanta.

Josh Berry – Berry's start with his new race team at Wood Brothers Racing didn't get off to a good start. He struggled at Daytona and qualified a distant 29th on the starting grid and would get tangled up in an early-race accident. Berry would retire on lap 105 and be handed a disappointing 37th-place finish in the Great American Race. The next event doesn't pose much hope for a rebound performance out of this journeyman driver. Berry's three starts on the new Atlanta have yielded good qualifying efforts (13.0 average start) but his finishes have been hampered to the tune of two finishes outside the Top 25 for a disappointing 25.0 average finish. It could take some time for Berry to get some traction with his new race team, and this weekend doesn't look to be it.