After a week of rest, The UFC returns with a 14-fight Pay-Per-View card featuring plenty of intriguing fights from which we can potentially profit. We'll break down each fight on the slate, including an underdog with fire in his fists and a veteran looking to settle the score against a perennial title contender. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Alexandre Pantoja ($8,800)
Kai Asakura's style of overwhelming an opponent with offense will likely give fits to most of the flyweight division, but it shouldn't be an issue for Pantoja, who thrives in that kind of chaos. The most salient point for me in this matchup is that Asakura has spent most of his career fighting in a ring. This makes takedown defense easier, as a fighter can slide their foot outside the ring ropes. Given how many wrestlers we've seen get in deep on his hips, it seems unlikely that Asakura will be able to prevent being taken to the ground. Pantoja is also tough enough to survive the big moments produced by the Japanese fighters' athletic attacks.
Shavkat Rakhmonov ($9,200)
A battle of undefeated competitors with multiple UFC fights might be expected to carry more intrigue, but Rakhmonov has looked utterly dominant in his tenure with the company, while Ian Garry has struggled with fighters prepared to get in his face. The Welsh fighter was taken down twice in his fight with Song Kenan, leaving little doubt that "Nomad" will be able to work his grappling when necessary.
Themba Gorimbo ($8,600)
Vicente Luque will likely be a popular dog play here based on his experience and aggressive style. However, Luque has struggled with wrestlers in the past, and Gorimbo handled the pressure and pace of Niko Price quite well during a dominant performance in October. The fighter from Zimbabwe also has sneaky power in his hands, which will prevent Luque from sitting in the pocket and looking for shots.
Movsar Evloev ($8,900)
Aljamain Sterling may be a fantastic control grappler, but he has yielded multiple takedowns to any fighter willing to wrestle him, as we saw in fights against Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan, and Cody Stamann. Evloev has also been grounded, but the Russian fighter has been remarkably difficult to hold down, yielding just 2:05 of control time to Mike Grundy despite being brought to the mat six times. I expect Evloev to dominate the scrambles here, opening the door for him to get the rest of his offense going.
Chase Hooper ($9,700)
Normally, a price such as this would have me looking to target this fight elsewhere, but Hooper has had no problem covering salaries, as evidenced by the fact that he has posted at least 120 DraftKings points in three of his last four wins. Clay Guida tends to get finished quickly by submission grapplers, but even if this one gets out of the first round, Hooper's relentless nature should result in another big score.
Max Griffin ($8,300)
Unless he can bully his opponents with size, Michael Chiesa is hard to favor in any matchup. Max Griffin did well in the grappling exchanges in a close loss to Neil Magny, and his leg kicks should be a much bigger factor in a fight like this. It's also worth noting that "Maverick's" takedown defense stands at a rate of just 60 percent, so Griffin should be able to initiate his own grappling if he chooses.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Joshua Van UNDER 81.5 Significant Strikes, Eryk Anders OVER 50.5 Significant Strikes, and Bryce Mitchell OVER 47.5 Significant Strikes
Van has made a living by throwing himself into exchanges, but Cody Durden swings so wide to try and open up his wrestling that I don't think "The Fearless" will be able to dictate terms quite as much as he has in the past. If this fight stays on the feet, the openings Durden provides will likely lead to a knockout. If it goes to the ground, "Custom Made" will be able to melt time off the clock. In either scenario, the amount of significant strikes landed will be limited.
The fight between Anders and Chris Weidman is one that was rescheduled after Anders was pulled from their bout in November with an illness. I made the same call on the over then, but interestingly, the total has dropped by 3.5 significant strikes. Weidman may be a credentialed wrestler, but he's no stranger to initiating a kickboxing match from bell to bell. I expect him to feel fairly comfortable in space against Anders, against whom he will have a reach advantage of three inches. Anders doesn't throw a tremendous amount of volume, but he will have more than enough time to exceed this total if the fight stays standing.
Kron Gracie is coming off a bizarre performance against Charles Jourdain in 2023 that he says was the result of pressure from the BJJ community and his family to grapple more. This was in reference to a fight against Cub Swanson in 2019 in which he brawled almost exclusively. I believe we will see much more of the latter against Bryce Mitchell, who is a world-class grappler in his own right. I don't expect either man to want to test out the ground too much here, given the danger waiting for each.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Bryan Battle OVER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Kennedy Nzechukwu UNDER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time, and Dominick Reyes OVER 10.0 Minutes of Fight Time
Randy Brown has been incredibly hard to hurt in his career, having suffered just two KO/TKO losses in 24 professional fights. Unlike most of his recent opponents, Battle will enjoy comparable height and reach measurements with "Rude Boy," which should facilitate a striking match where both men need to be wary of the power of their opponent.
I will likely opt for the under in every fight, given a decent total against Lukasz Brzeski, who has suffered first-round knockouts in each of his last two losses. Nzechukwu has always had tremendous power but doesn't start quickly enough to ensure an early finish. We shouldn't have to worry about that against Brzeski, who always looks to push a pace on his opponents.
Reyes and Anthony Smith should be a fight where two kickboxers test the waters with jabs before graduating to bigger strikes. Much of this fight will be spent by both men looking for the perfect shot in the pocket, leading to an atypically slow-paced bout in the light heavyweight division.
Bets to Consider
Doo Ho Choi wins via KO/TKO (+300)
This is our second straight fight predicting Choi to win by KO/TKO at long odds. In the fight against Bill Algeo, we reasoned that "The Korean Superboy" has far too much power to try and walk through his offense. That is doubly true in the case of Nate Landwehr, who often gets hit hard early in fights before pulling out the victory. Choi made a tough guy in Algeo crumble with a simple left hook, and "The Train" will find himself in similar trouble if he attempts to trade wildly.
Alexander Volkov (+295)
This pick may be a bit risky for some, as it will likely involve Volkov doing something out of character. However, the grappling deficiencies shown in Ciryl Gane's fight with Jon Jones simply can't be ignored, and "Drago" is a capable wrestler, as he took down Curtis Blaydes in 2020 and submitted Tai Tuivasa last year. If the fight remains in space, I expect it to go much like their fight in 2021, but Volkov has too much experience to let an opportunity to win pass him by.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC 310 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
If you prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
