Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC 325
The UFC is back in 2026 with its second consecutive numbered card, so we'll once again use this article to track the top UFC DFS locks and value plays for UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
Top UFC 325 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 8-3-0 ~ Dog Picks 0-0-0
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2 ~ Dog Picks 53-43-2
Drake's Bets of the Week: Rafael Fiziev +105
Bet of the Week Record: 0-0-0
DFS Lock of the Week: Billy Elekana
Fanduel Captain: Salkilld/Elekana
Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0) v. Diego Lopes (27-7-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 27-4 (13 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Elite fight IQ, cardio, and ability to make in-fight adjustments
- Can be hittable when pressured and forced into higher-tempo exchanges
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 27-7 (11 KO/TKO, 12 submissions)
- Dangerous finisher with power, length, and submission threats
- Learning curve has been clear, when aggressive and willing to trade, his upside spikes
DFS Perspective: Lopes is the preferred DFS side in the rematch. Expect him to apply lessons from the first fight by increasing pressure, being more willing to trade and forcing Volkanovski into uncomfortable exchanges. Volkanovski's experience and durability keep him live, but Lopes' aggression and finishing upside give him the higher DFS ceiling. Lopes profiles as a strong tournament play with knockout or submission equity if he pushes the pace early and often.
UFC 325 Pick: Lopes
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Dan Hooker (24-13-0) v. Benoit Saint-Denis (16-3-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 23-12 (11 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Dangerous striker with range weapons, knees, and kicks
- Glaring weakness on the ground; struggles defensively when forced into grappling exchanges
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 16-3 (5 KO/TKO, 11 submissions)
- Relentless pressure grappler with strong top control and submission chains
- Excels at exploiting defensive grappling flaws and breaking opponents over time
DFS Perspective: Saint-Denis is the clear DFS target in this matchup. Hooker's ground game has been a persistent liability, and Saint-Denis is tailor-made to exploit it. Expect BSD to force takedowns early, maintain heavy control and pile up DFS points through advances and submission attempts. This profiles as a dominant win for Saint-Denis with both a strong floor and slate-breaking ceiling.
UFC 325 Pick: Saint-Denis
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Rafael Fiziev (13-4-0) v. Mauricio Ruffy (12-2-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 13-4 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- High-level kickboxer with elite speed, defense, and counter striking
- Vastly more experience against top-tier competition and strong control in striking exchanges
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-2 (11 KO/TKO)
- Explosive striker with finishing power and confidence
- Still relatively untested at the highest level; can be drawn into technical battles
DFS Perspective: Fiziev is an excellent DFS target, especially as an underdog. His experience, defensive striking and ability to control exchanges should neutralize Ruffy's explosiveness. If Fiziev dictates pace and distance, he can rack up clean volume while limiting damage. This sets up as a strong leverage play with decision equity and potential late-finish upside, making Fiziev one of the better dog targets on the card.
UFC 325 Pick: Fiziev
Tai Tuivasa (14-8-0) v. Tallison Teixeira (22-8-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14-8 (13 KO/TKO)
- Heavy-handed brawler with one-punch knockout power
- Five-fight losing streak and declining durability raise major concerns
- Height: 6'7" – Reach: 83" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-1 (7 KO/TKO)
- Massive height and reach advantage with dangerous power
- Should be able to control distance and force Tuivasa into unfavorable exchanges
DFS Perspective: Tuivasa's recent skid makes him extremely difficult to trust in DFS, especially against a much larger opponent. Teixeira's size, reach, and power give him a clear stylistic edge and strong finishing upside. If Teixeira fights with even basic discipline, he should be able to keep Tuivasa at range and land damaging shots. Teixeira profiles as a strong DFS play with knockout potential in a matchup that favors him heavily.
UFC 325 Pick: Teixeira
Quillan Salkilld (10-1-0) v. Jamie Mullarkey (18-8-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-1 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Well-rounded skill set with good athleticism and finishing ability
- Appears to be stepping into a very favorable matchup relative to experience level
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-8 (10 KO/TKO, 3 submission)
- Aggressive brawler who relies on toughness and pressure
- Defensive issues and inconsistency have repeatedly shown at the UFC level
DFS Perspective: This matchup feels like a gift for Salkilld. Mullarkey's defensive lapses and tendency to brawl without structure line up perfectly for a cleaner, more composed fighter to exploit. Salkilld should be able to dictate exchanges, land first, and find a finish or clearly outscore Mullarkey. From a DFS standpoint, Salkilld offers strong win equity with finishing upside, making him one of the better plays in this range on the card.
UFC 325 Pick: Salkilld
Junior Tafa (6-4-0) v. Billy Elekana (9-2-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-4 (6 KO/TKO)
- Explosive striker with real power early
- Struggles defensively on the mat and can be neutralized if taken down
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 9-2 (3 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Showed strong composure and well-rounded ability in his last fight
- Willing to grapple and work from top position, which is key in this matchup
DFS Perspective: This remains a high-variance fight, but Elekana's skill set translates even better at light heavyweight. His willingness to grapple and top-control potential directly target Tafa's biggest weakness. Tafa always carries early-knockout upside, but if Elekana is legitimate, as his last fight suggested, he has the clearer path to sustained control and DFS scoring. Elekana is the side to be more aggressive on in tournaments.
UFC 325 Pick: Elekana
Cam Rowston (13-3-0) v. Cody Brundage (11-7-1)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-3 (5 KO/TKO, 7 submission)
- Physical, aggressive finisher with strong pressure and pace
- Consistently overwhelms opponents who struggle with durability and composure
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-7-1 (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Has wrestling upside but is extremely inconsistent
- Durability issues and defensive lapses have led to multiple quick losses
DFS Perspective: Rowston is a smash spot and one of the strongest DFS targets on the card. His pressure, power, and ability to capitalize on mistakes line up perfectly against Brundage's durability concerns. If Rowston pushes the pace early, this could end quickly. He offers a high floor with massive finishing upside, making him a core DFS play in all formats.
UFC 325 Pick: Rowston
Jacob Malkoun (8-3-0) v. Torrez Finney (11-0-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-3 (3 KO/TKO)
- Strong wrestling base with a control-heavy grappling style
- Nearly two-year layoff raises questions about timing, conditioning, and sharpness
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-0 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Physical, aggressive wrestler who looks to impose top control early
- Comfortable turning grappling exchanges into grinding, dominant positions
DFS Perspective: This is likely to be a grappling-heavy fight with limited striking volume, making control time critical for DFS scoring. Malkoun's wrestling gives him a clear path, but the extended layoff creates legitimate concern. Finney's activity level, physicality, and momentum give him a slight edge in a fight where whoever secures top position first could dictate long stretches. Finney is the preferred DFS option by a narrow margin, especially in tournaments, given the uncertainty surrounding Malkoun's return.
UFC 325 Pick: Finney
Jonathan Micallef (8-1-0) v. Oban Elliott (12-3-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 8-1 (2 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- More complete overall body of work with solid fundamentals
- Comfortable mixing striking and grappling to win close rounds
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-3 (3 KO/TKO, 3 submission)
- Physical striker with length and forward pressure
- Still developing consistency when fights stay competitive and technical
DFS Perspective: This profiles as a close, competitive fight with modest finishing equity. Micallef's broader experience and ability to edge rounds across multiple phases give him a slight DFS lean. Elliott's size and pressure keep him live, but Micallef's steadier approach should allow him to pull ahead on the scorecards. Micallef is the preferred DFS side by a narrow margin, projecting best as a decision win rather than a slate-breaking finish.
UFC 325 Pick: Micallef
Kaan Ofli (12-4-1) v. Yizha (26-5-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-4-1 (2 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Well-balanced skill set with competent striking and grappling
- Comfortable mixing phases and winning fights through control and efficiency
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-2 (6 KO/TKO, 14 submissions)
- Clean striker with speed and volume at range
- Can be neutralized when opponents force grappling exchanges
DFS Perspective: This shapes up as another close fight, but Ofli stands out as a strong underdog DFS target. His ability to blend striking with timely takedowns gives him multiple paths to victory, especially against a favorite who prefers a cleaner, stand-up fight. Yizha's odds reflect his striking upside, but Ofli's balance and adaptability make him the side to lean toward in DFS tournaments. Ofli offers solid leverage with realistic win equity in a competitive matchup.
UFC 325 Pick: Ofli
Dom Mar Fan (8-2-0) v. Sang Uk Kim (13-3-0)
(Road to the UFC - 155-pound Championship)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-2 (1 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Aggressive pace fighter who pushes forward and forces exchanges
- Can be hittable defensively when fights get extended and competitive
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-1 (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Cleaner, more technical striker with strong composure
- Does a good job managing distance and avoiding unnecessary damage
DFS Perspective: With the expectation that Dom Mar initiates takedowns and prioritizes ground control, he becomes the preferred DFS side. Over five rounds, consistent wrestling, top control, and positional dominance can quietly rack up points even without a finish. Kim's cleaner striking keeps him competitive on the feet, but if Dom Mar dictates where the fight takes place, he should be able to bank rounds and control tempo. Dom Mar profiles best as a decision winner with a solid DFS floor rather than a slate-breaking ceiling.
UFC 325 Pick: Dom Mar
Sebastian Szalay (10-1-0) v. Keiichiro Nakamura (7-1-0)
(Road to the UFC - 145-pound Championship)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-1 (2 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Durable and methodical fighter who tends to win fights by decision
- Lower output limits finishing upside and DFS ceiling
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7-1 (6 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive finisher who throws with intent and pushes pace
- Reach advantage and higher volume give him an edge in exchanges
DFS Perspective: Nakamura is a strong underdog DFS target in this matchup. His willingness to throw, combined with his finishing instincts and reach advantage, gives him the higher ceiling over three rounds. Szalay's durability and decision-heavy style keep him competitive, but Nakamura's output and damage potential make him the more attractive DFS option. Nakamura profiles best as a tournament player with a realistic knockout upside if he can dictate tempo early.
UFC 325 Pick: Nakamura
Sulangranbo (10-3-0) v. Lawrence Lui (7-1-0)
(Road to the UFC - 135-pound Championship)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10-3 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Just 20 years old but already showing strong fundamentals and rapid improvement
- Sharp striker with real power; dangerous if the fight stays standing
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-1 (4 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive and willing to exchange, with paths to success in scrambles
- Can be hittable in striking exchanges against cleaner punchers
DFS Perspective: Sulangrangbo is the preferred DFS side in this matchup. His continued development, striking confidence, and knockout potential give him the higher ceiling if the fight plays out on the feet. Lui will have moments and opportunities of his own, particularly if he can force chaos or grappling exchanges, but Sulangrangbo's composure and power make him the more reliable DFS option. He profiles well for tournaments with clear KO upside and solid win equity as the favorite.
UFC 325 Pick: Sulangranbo
Namsrai Batbayar (9-1-0) v. Aaron Tau (11-1-0)
(Road to UFC 125 Championship)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-2 (4 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Well-rounded finisher with a strong overall body of work
- Comfortable pushing exchanges and capitalizing when opponents overextend
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 9-1 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Aggressive and dangerous everywhere with real finishing instincts
- Willing to take risks, which creates volatility on both sides
DFS Perspective: This is an excellent fight to kick off the card, with real danger for both fighters and a strong likelihood of a finish. Tau's aggression makes him live early, but Batbayar's more complete body of work and composure in chaotic fights give him the slight DFS edge. Expect high pace, heavy exchanges, and a strong chance that someone gets finished. Batbayar profiles as the preferred DFS play with knockout or submission upside, making this an attractive tournament target.
UFC 325 Pick: Batbayar
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
