Luis Arraez

27-Year-Old First Baseman1B

San Diego Padres

Out

Injury Thumb

Est. Return 2/1/2025

2024 Stats

AVG

.314

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Arraez won the AL batting title and was dealt to Miami in a deal for Pablo Lopez over the winter. Rather than pout about leaving the only organization he has ever known, Arraez simply went out and won the NL batting title as well as the overall league batting title obliterating the competition. He was one of three qualified hitters who walked more than he struck out, which is quite the accomplishment given he only walked 35 times in 617 plate appearances in 2023. His extreme bat to ball skills with a willingness to use all fields gives him the highest batting average floor in fantasy baseball and his .326 career average in nearly 2200 plate appearance attests to that. He does not run well, but is on base at a high volume to score enough runs and is not a drag on RBIs like other "slappies" can be. Don't sell his power short as he can turn and burn on occasion as well. Arraez is to batting average what Esteury Ruiz is to steals without dragging down other categories. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#157

ADP

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 5'10"

Weight 175

DOB 4/9/1997

Born San Felipe, Venezuela

College None

Drafted 2013 MIN

Undergoes surgery on thumb

1BSan Diego Padres

Thumb

October 16, 2024

Arraez underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb, Daniel Alvarez-Montes of ElExtraBase.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Arraez initially injured the thumb back in late June but played through the issue for the remainder of the season. The expectation is that he will be ready for the start of spring training. Arraez will be eligible for salary arbitration for the final time this offseason.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

106

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+21%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+21%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+17%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+20%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.689	466	53	5	39	2	.286	.325	.364
Since 2022vs Right	.832	1426	189	17	125	14	.341	.385	.447
2024vs Left	.644	204	26	1	14	2	.271	.310	.333
2024vs Right	.780	468	57	3	32	7	.333	.362	.418
2023vs Left	.760	138	11	2	18	0	.326	.343	.417
2023vs Right	.891	479	60	8	51	3	.362	.407	.484
2022vs Left	.685	124	16	2	7	0	.265	.331	.354
2022vs Right	.824	479	72	6	42	4	.329	.386	.438
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+2%

OPS on Road

2024

+32%

OPS on Road

2023

+12%

OPS at Home

2022

+11%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.789	958	120	15	91	10	.323	.362	.427
Since 2022Away	.804	934	122	7	73	6	.333	.379	.425
2024Home	.636	337	37	2	22	5	.268	.307	.328
2024Away	.841	335	46	2	24	4	.359	.385	.456
2023Home	.907	318	39	6	40	3	.376	.407	.500
2023Away	.813	299	32	4	29	0	.330	.378	.435
2022Home	.837	303	44	7	29	2	.327	.376	.460
2022Away	.753	300	44	1	20	2	.305	.373	.379
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Stat Review

How does Luis Arraez compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.83

BB Rate

3.6%

K Rate

4.3%

BABIP

.324

ISO

.078

AVG

.314

OBP

.346

SLG

.392

OPS

.739

wOBA

.326

Exit Velocity

86.3 mph

Hard Hit Rate

22.9%

Barrels/PA

1.5%

Expected BA

.312

Expected SLG

.405

Sprint Speed

21.5 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

41.4%

Line Drive %

26.5%

Fly Ball %

32.1%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Luis Arraez Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2017

2016

Arraez has elite contact skills which helped him win the AL batting title and make his first All-Star Game last season. Arraez led baseball in contact rate (94.1%) and had the fewest swings and misses (2.5%). While he hit a career-high eight home runs, he doesn't have much power and adds few steals, which limits his fantasy value. He has a decent, but not great glove, which has given him positional flexibility but not a set position. He settled in mostly at first base (65 games) with the Twins having several injuries at the position. He did wear down late in the season (.277 with a .678 OPS over his last 37 games) as he struggled with a sore hamstring in September. His knees have been a frequent problem in the past. If he can stay healthy, Arraez will likely resume his near everyday utility role and be an impact player in batting average. Being traded to the Marlins shouldn't significantly affect his outlook, though he should now be expected to play more second base in 2023.

Arraez has elite contact skills (88.8% contact rate, 2nd among hitters with 450 or more PA) and an ability to hit for average. He lacks power (0.82 ISO) and adds few steals, which limits his fantasy value. He also has a decent, but not elite glove, which has given him positional flexibility, but no set position. He entered last season as the primary utility player with the Twins intending to bat him leadoff and use him nearly every day. He got off to a slow start by hitting .277 with a .691 OPS before missing three weeks with a knee injury in June (his knees have been a frequent problem), but was back to form the rest of the season (.294 BA with .733 OPS). He improved slightly against lefties (.677 OPS vs. LH), but still has enough career platoon splits to lose playing time to southpaws. The Twins traded Josh Donaldson to the Yankees this spring, but Arraez is in line to serve as a utility infielder in 2022 after the team acquired Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela.

Arraez showed his strong rookie season was no fluke as he hit .321 with a .765 OPS. He has outstanding contact skills (90.2% contact rate, 4th among hitters with 100 or more PA) and an elite ability to hit for average. He lacks power, however, as he failed to homer and had just an .080 ISO, and he adds few steals with his below-average speed (42 percentile sprint speed per Baseball Savant). Arraez also struggled with knee and ankle issues which limited him to 32 games. He did improve with the glove, which was a worry for his playing time, as he ranked 13th with 1 DRS at second base. He'll need to improve against lefties (.564 OPS) to stay in the lineup and avoid being platooned. He'll move into a utility role after the Twins signed Andrelton Simmons but is expected to get regular playing time. He could see significant growth with full health as he'll turn 24 just after Opening Day.

Arraez turned what was initially expected to be a brief stay in the majors into a full-time role in the infield, unseating Jonathan Schoop for regular work at second base. His season began at Double-A before quickly getting bumped up to Triple-A. He was there for three days before getting the call for his big-league debut. Arraez has outstanding contact skills -- his 7.9 K% led MLB hitters with 300-plus PA and his 1.24 BB/K placed him second, in between Alex Bregman and Carlos Santana. He is a very difficult player to value for fantasy, as he has just 10 professional home runs in 459 games to go with a league-average sprint speed that only figures to tick down as he matures. Even so, his plate skills and ability to hit for average are already elite. Even though he is a poor defender (-8 DRS), Arraez should at least occupy the strong side of a platoon (.696 OPS vs. lefties) at second base to start the year.

Arraez hit .298 with a .710 OPS after missing all but three games in 2017 due to a torn ACL. Arraez is one of the best pure hitters in the Twins' system, but has not hit for much power or shown much speed on the bases. At 5-foot-10, 155 pounds, he doesn't project to grow into much more than 10-to-15 homer pop. His hit tool and defense will have to carry him if he is to make it as an everyday player.

Arraez, signed out of Venezuela at age 16, saw his stock continue to rise in the Twins organization after hitting .347 with an .830 OPS at Low-A Cedar Rapids. Arraez doesn't draw a ton of walks, but makes very good contact (89 percent) with a low strikeout rate (9.9 percent). He could be on the fast track to the majors with a strong season at High-A.

Arraez hit .306 in the rookie Gulf Coast League with a reasonable .320 BABIP last year, playing primarily at second base but also seeing time at third base, shortstop and left field. His approach also seems to be uniquely advanced for any player in the minor leagues, not to mention an 18-year-old. He had 20 walks and 10 strikeouts in 233 plate appearances. While he doesn't have any power at the moment (.082 ISO), his outstanding contact rate at a young age should put him on dynasty league radars. The Twins figure to keep Arraez on a slow, safe development path, but he will likely receive his first full-season assignment relatively early on in 2016.

More Fantasy News

Not playing Saturday

1BSan Diego Padres

September 28, 2024

Arraez is absent from Saturday's lineup against the Diamondbacks.