This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Betting: NFL Best Bets, Player Props, and Touchdown Scorer Props for Week 13
Last article: 0-4, -4.35 units
Season: 70-112, -52.72 units
Quez Watkins over 25.5 receiving yards, -110 (DraftKings)
Watkins has covered this total in all three games since TE Dallas Goedert left the lineup, and gets a pretty good matchup here, with the Titans ranking 31st in passing yards allowed.
Travis Etienne over 63.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Risky play with Etienne leaving the game after only two carries last week, but he was reportedly cleared to return (and remained out as a precaution), while Jaguars coach Doug Pederson declared Etienne "good to go" a couple of days ago. With that in mind, Etienne had covered this total in five straight games before the Chiefs game, where Jacksonville fell behind early and stopped running for the most part. He gets a great matchup here vs. Detroit, and could easily return to form, assuming good health.
Zay Jones over 48.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Jones easily covered this total each of the last two weeks while receiving double-digit targets in both games, and now gets a plum matchup vs. Lions' 29th-ranked passing defense. You can argue that Jones saw extra work in both those games, playing catch-up vs. the Chiefs and then seeing heavy volume last week following the early departure of Etienne, but given his huge success last week (11-145-0), Jones figures to see good volume once again in a very favorable matchup.
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 72.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
St. Brown appears to be back to full health these days, with the Lions leaning on him pretty hard recently (double-digit targets in three of his last five games, with near-misses in the other two). He now gets a good matchup with the Jaguars ranking 25th in passing yards allowed, and St. Brown could even see a little less defensive pressure this week with the debut of talented Lions rookie Jameson Williams.
George Pickens over 48.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
There's probably some value on Pickens, who appears to be QB Kenny Pickett's favored option (or at least his more efficient option), while Diontae Johnson continues to be listed 5-10 yards higher in their receiving yardage props. Great dome matchup this week vs. the Falcons, who rank 28th in passing yards allowed (and 30th in fantasy points allowed top WR's).
George Pickens longest reception over 19.5 yards, -114 (FanDuel)
Pickens has excelled at catching long passes this year, covering this total in seven of his 11 games. It should really be even better, with two of those four misses coming in games where he recorded zero and one receptions (which seems highly unlikely here). Given the Falcons' obvious problems in pass defense, it's fair to expect another long gainer from Pickens.
Brandon Aiyuk over 48.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Speaking of players who excel at long receptions, this a good spot for Aiyuk this week, with Deebo Samuel looking doubtful to play, and backfield receiving threat Christian McCaffrey limited by injury this week. It also seems likely the 49ers will be forced to throw more than usual, facing the high-powered Dolphins.
Jordan Mason anytime touchdown, +380 (DraftKings)
With Elijah Mitchell now on IR, and McCaffrey limited by injury, Mason should see a decent workload this week. That seems to be backed up by a comment from QB Jimmy Garoppolo this week, who said about Mason, "He makes it tough on defenses and I think those are body blows that wear on you in the fourth quarter, so it'll be interesting to see a full game with him." Mason looked strong in spot-play duty last week, and given his tough inside running, he would seem a candidate to receive goal-line carries should the opportunity present itself. Fwiw, FanDuel is currently listing him much lower at +125.
Patrick Mahomes over 23.5 rushing yards, -120 (DraftKings)
Mahomes clearly seems to be looking to run the ball recently when the opportunity presents itself and has covered this total in three of his last four games (with the lone miss coming by half a yard). He also figures to be dropping back to pass with high frequency in this game, which could/should lead to more rushing attempts if/when the Bengals bring pressure. Given his high efficiency when he does take off running, I like his chances of going over once again.
Tee Higgins over 69.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Great setup for Higgins this week, as the Bengals should be forced to throw a lot, while Higgins should see a drop-off in defensive pressure thanks to the return of Ja'Marr Chase this week. With the Chiefs ranking 29th in fantasy points allowed to WR's, this is a very favorable matchup for Higgins.
Travis Kelce over 79.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Kelce had covered this total in five straight games before facing the Rams last week, who are pretty tough on TE's. The Chiefs also didn't have to throw as much last week, as they held a 20-3 lead after three quarters. With this game projecting as much more of a shootout-style affair, and the Bengals ranking 16th vs TE's, Kelce figures to return to higher volume this week, and has a good chance of covering this total.
Tony Pollard over 61.5 rushing yards, -115 (DraftKings)
Pollard has continued to see heavy volume recently even following the return of Ezekiel Elliot, and that should be the case once again, with the Cowboys being double-digit favorites at home. Pollard has covered this total in four of his last five games, the lone miss coming last week (by just two yards) when he actually went over but then ended up going under after a late-game carry where he lost five yards. That loss seemed fluky enough already, with Pollard receiving a robust 18 carries last week. Great chance at Pollard going over here on anything approaching similar volume.
