Hector Neris

Neris declined his $8.5 million player option for 2024 after tying for the league lead with a career-high 31 holds last season. The 34-year-old had yet another solid season in a setup role with metrics that were fairly consistent with recent outputs. One notable improvement lied within the quality of contact he allowed, as Neris' 28.0% hard-hit rate was a career-best and 16.7 percentage point drop from 2022's career-worst mark. This correlated with an 86.5 mph average exit velocity allowed that was in the top nine percent of the league. Neris also had the highest WPA for a non-closer at 3.82, which was tied for fifth overall among qualified relievers. Look for the veteran to open the year as the top setup man in front of Adbert Alzolay after signing a one-year deal with the Cubs in January.

Neris may have been miscast as a closer in Philadelphia, but he settled into a more suitable setup role after signing a 2-year deal to join the Astros. The veteran was still a workhorse, appearing in 70 games (seventh-most in baseball) while racking up 25 holds (sixth-most). He finished the year with an unspectacular 3.72 ERA (2.34 FIP) in 65.1 innings, but maintained a strong 30% strikeout rate and vastly improved his walk (6.5%) and home run (0.4 HR/9) rates. However, Neris' hard hit rate regressed from the mid-to-upper 30's to 44.7% last season and is something to monitor moving forward. The righty may no longer be elite by any one metric, but continues to be above-average in most and doesn't appear to be slowing down as he approaches his age-34 season.

After an unlucky 2020, Neris rebounded last season, albeit it with 12 homers in 74.1 innings. A 31.6% strikeout rate helped minimize damage, as did a fortunate .262 BABIP. Despite the penchant for allowing homers, the Phillies deployed Neris in high-leverage scenarios, where he notched 12 saves and 11 holds. Neris signed with the Astros where he'll help Rafael Montero set up Ryan Pressly. His ratios are risky, but Neris is one of the better middle reliever candidates to add strikeouts as he's durable along with a dominant strikeout rate.

Neris was one of the Phillies' best bullpen arms in 2020, though that's saying incredibly little, as the unit produced an awful 7.06 ERA. His 4.57 ERA looks outstanding by those standards, though it wouldn't have been enough to keep him in a high-leverage role long enough to earn his five saves on many other teams. A .381 BABIP and 59.5% strand rate inflated his ERA, though his 0.0% HR/FB rate mostly cancelled out that bad luck. In the areas where he had more direct control, he regressed, as his K% fell from 32.4% to 26.2% while his BB% jumped from 8.7% to a career-high 12.6%. Neris was a fairly unconvincing closer at the best of times, and the Phillies can't be feeling too confident having him in that role this year. If his ERA rebounds to the range of his career-long 3.38 mark, he'll be a solid mid-tier option at the position, but it's also possible he regresses even more in his age-32 campaign.

Neris entered the year looking like the third option for saves in Philadelphia behind Seranthony Dominguez and David Robertson. That pair recorded a combined zero saves while elbow injuries limited them to just 31.1 innings. Meanwhile, Neris rebounded from a shaky 2018 campaign to save 28 games while recording a 2.93 ERA and a 32.4% strikeout rate. He also dramatically increased his groundball rate, which came in at 45.5% after sitting at 30.8% in 2018. Neris is a step down from the league's elite relievers, and fears of his 2018 struggles returning are understandable, but he should begin the season with a clear hold on the closer role with Robertson recovering from Tommy John surgery and Dominguez's status questionable. He should be able to pick up most of the Phillies' saves while striking out a high number of batters, provided he doesn't lose feel for his splitter like he did in 2018.

Neris entered 2018 as the Phillies' closer following a campaign that featured 26 saves and a 3.01 ERA. Much of that success came via his excellent splitter, a pitch he seemed to lose feel for early in 2018. He was optioned to Triple-A in mid-July after posting a 6.00 ERA through his first 30 appearances. The demotion seemed to help. He recorded a 2.04 ERA from Aug. 15 onward, though he didn't regain his closing job, earning just one save from that point on. The emergence of Seranthony Dominguez and the addition of David Robertson make even a revitalized Neris' value murky for the 2019 season. It's unclear which pitcher will have the edge in save chances. It's possible manager Gabe Kapler will decide to go without a dedicated closer. Kapler spent large stretches of last season without one, deploying his most trusted relievers in the highest-leverage spots, with the save going to whomever was left over when the game got to the ninth.

The Phillies refused to formally name Neris the closer early on, but he eventually emerged as the clear-cut option after the Phillies traded veterans Joaquin Benoit and Pat Neshek at the deadline. Following a blown save on June 21, Neris converted 20 straight opportunities, striking out 52 batters with a 2.49 ERA in his final 42 games. The right-hander's spike in flyball percentage to 44.4 is worrisome considering his homer-friendly digs, but relievers can typically work around this if they boast his dominance (career 10.5 strikeouts per nine and 16.6 percent swinging-strike rate). Also, Neris carries one of baseball's best split-fingered fastballs, and that pitch could help limit big flies with more refinement. Even on a 66-win club, Neris churned out 26 saves. Unlike last offseason, he won't come cheaply, but he could still pay off handsomely at his increased price point.

Neris came out of nowhere last season to become one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. It started with a decision by the Phillies' brass to have him focus primarily on throwing his splitter, which had always been his best pitch. Neris went from throwing the split 21 percent of the time in 2015 to throwing it nearly 50 percent of the time in 2016 while curtailing use of his slider. The move paid off as his strikeout rate rocketed to 11.4 K/9, more than two points higher than his 2015 rate. He did see his walk rate creep up but avoided blow-ups thanks in part to an 82.5 percent strand rate. Neris managed just two saves last season despite having the best stuff in the Phillies' pen. However, Jeanmar Gomez lost the closer role late last season, which opens the door for Neris to earn the job this spring. He likely won't cost as much as established closers, but he has the skill set to be one of the most dominant options in baseball as long as he keeps having success with his splitter.

Neris shuttled between Triple-A and the majors last season. He was pretty tough against the 101 right-handed batters he faced with a .232 batting average against, 26 strikeouts and just two walks. Neris' fastball is about 93 mph, and he throws a slider and changeup. He will compete for a bullpen job this spring.

Neris got a brief, one-game look from the Phillies last season when the team needed an extra arm for their bullpen. He spent the majority of his season at Triple-A, where he posted a 9.0 K/9 ratio and 2.9 BB/9 ratio in 58 innings including one start. Neris sits around 93 mph with his fastball and throws a slider and changeup. He will have an opportunity to compete for a middle-relief job this spring.