Exploiting the Matchups: Week 6 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Published on October 10, 2024

Week 5 looked a lot like football from the late 2010s or early 2020s, with pass volume, play volume scoring, average target depth (and turnovers) all rising considerably compared to Weeks 1-4. On the defensive side, there were season-high rates of man coverage (31.3 percent) and single-high coverages (57.5 percent).

The Chargers being on bye contributed to all of this a tiny bit, but the other teams out of action (Detroit, Philadelphia, Tennessee) hadn't been occupying extremes when it comes to the aforementioned strategies. Everything mentioned above holds true if we remove the Chargers, Lions, Eagles and Titans from the sample for Weeks 1-4.

I mentioned in this space last week that a lot of the discussion about offensive decline was either outright inaccurate or overstated. Teams had been running more and passing less, sure, but on a per-play or per-drive basis the efficiency was arguably better than it had been in 2022-23. Exchanging deep/intermediate passes for shorter throws and hand-offs reduced the frequency of long gains, but it had also meant fewer incompletions and turnovers, which was a big part of why teams were averaging fewer plays (incompletions and turnovers stop the clock, while rush attempts and short completions don't).

We shouldn't necessarily expect Week 5 to be the new normal, at least not to such a drastic extent, but there is reason to think we'll continue seeing more passing, more snaps, etc. relative to the first month of the season. There were already slight upward trends in pass volume and target depth when comparing Weeks 3-4 to Weeks 1-2, driven by teams like the Falcons, Commanders and Bears taking a more aggressive approach in one way or another after coming out of the gates with more conservative offenses.

It's perhaps not surprising that teams with new quarterbacks and/or playcallers are more willing to throw the ball downfield or go no-huddle than they were at the beginning of the season. You'll find some discussion of these trends below, although only time will tell how things play out from a league-wide standpoint.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Caleb Williams (vs. JAX) — 28% started

Start Over — Trevor Lawrence (at CHI), Aaron Rodgers (vs. BUF), Justin Herbert (at DEN)

The Jaguars are allowing a league-high 23.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, with each one they've faced scoring at least 15.4 and posting either his best or second-best total of the young season. They should get some help soon with top cornerback Tyson Campbell (hamstring) coming back from injured reserve, but coach Doug Pederson said that's more likely to happen Week 7 than this coming Sunday in London.

It's the fourth straight favorable matchup for Williams, who scored 19.3 points Week 3 at Indianapolis and 23.6 points this past Sunday against Carolina, sandwiched around an 11.5-point, 23-pass-attempt effort Week 4 against the Rams. While unlikely to get big-time passing volume outside of negative game scripts, Williams has shown a real ceiling for fantasy in a surprisingly fast-paced offense, averaging 4.2 rush attempts for 22.6 yards and throwing for five TDs the past three weeks.

Other Good Matchups: Josh Allen (at NYJ) Brock Purdy (at SEA), Justin Fields (at LV), Kirk Cousins (at CAR), Daniel Jones (vs. CIN), Andy Dalton (vs. ATL), Spencer Rattler (vs. TB), Will Levis (vs. IND)

Running Backs 👍

David Montgomery (at DAL) — 74% started

Start Over — Chuba Hubbard (vs. ATL), D'Andre Swift (vs. JAX), Travis Etienne (at CHI)

A potential shootout might seem to favor Jahmyr Gibbs over Montgomery, but it should work out well for both of them unless the Lions unexpectedly end up falling way behind. Already struggling to stop the run beforehand, Dallas is now playing without top edge rushers DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) and Micah Parsons (ankle), both of whom have solid track records as run defenders in addition to their exploits getting after passers. Replacement DE Marshawn Kneeland (IR - knee) is also on the shelf now, and green-dot linebacker Eric Kendricks (calf) was absent from practice to start the week. Everything sets up nicely for Montgomery, who has scored at least 15 PPR points in five straight games dating back to last year's playoffs.

Tony Pollard (vs. IND) — 52% started

Start Over — Najee Harris (at LV), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. HOU), Chuba Hubbard (vs. ATL)

The Colts shut down D'Andre Swift in Week 3 and Najee Harris in Week 4, but they've otherwise been run over violently by Joe Mixon (30-159-1), Josh Jacobs (32-151-0) and Tank Bigsby (13-101-2). Pollard will probably fall somewhere between the two extremes, perhaps posting a stat line similar to what he did at Miami right before the Week 5 bye (22-88-1 rushing, 2-20-0 receiving). It was his third time over 15 PPR points in three games, and he has the benefit of a healthy team around him after the bye.

Other Good Matchups: Derrick Henry (vs. WAS), Josh Jacobs (vs. ARZ), Breece Hall (vs. BUF), Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier (at CAR), Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery (at DAL), Tony Pollard (vs. IND), Najee Harris (at LV), Devin Singletary or Tyrone Tracy (vs. CIN),

Wide Receivers 👍

Zay Flowers (vs. WAS) — 77% started

Start Over — Amari Cooper (at PHI), George Pickens (at LV), Diontae Johnson (vs. ATL)

Washington's defense is trending up, led by impressive LBs Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu, but the cornerbacks are still an obvious weakness — one that should be exploited by Flowers (and to a lesser extent, Rashod Bateman). Given the favorable matchup, Flowers is unlikely to be an afterthought the way he was Weeks 3-4 when the Ravens leaned heavily on Derrick Henry. There should be room for both Henry and Flowers to thrive this Sunday in a matchup between the league's two highest-scoring teams.

Wan'Dale Robinson (vs. CIN) — 40% started

Start Over — Keenan Allen (vs. JAX), Calvin Ridley (vs. IND), Christian Kirk (at CHI)

Robinson's volume is maxed out, with or without Malik Nabers (concussion) in the lineup. That's a good thing for fantasy, of course, and it's allowed the third-year pro to score at least 9.8 PPR points each week despite being one of the least efficient receivers in the league in terms of yards per target (4.9). While that may not seem sustainable, things are going alright for the Giants offense overall, and Robinson's coaches aren't likely to punish him for having his averages dragged down by so many low-quality targets. He's getting the plays that might go to RBs or TEs in other offenses, functioning as a so-called security blanket for Daniel Jones, whose 6.3 percent sack rate this season is well below his career average (8.4 percent). Regardless of Nabers' status, Robinson should stay busy Sunday night against a Bengals defense that's allowing a 112.0 passer rating on targets to wide receivers in the slot.

Other Good Matchups: CeeDee Lamb & Jalen Tolbert (vs. DET), DJ Moore & Rome Odunze (at JAX), Zay Flowers & Rashod Bateman (vs. WAS), Amari Cooper & Jerry Jeudy (at PHI), Dontayvion Wicks (vs. ARZ), Calvin Ridley & DeAndre Hopkins (vs. IND)

Tight Ends 👍

Pat Freiermuth (at LV) — 41% started

Start Over — Kyle Pitts (at CAR), Dalton Schultz (at NE), Mark Andrews (vs. WAS)

Freiermuth is on the short list of consistent performers at his position, recording at least 6.7 PPR points each week and scoring touchdowns in both of the past two games. He may be stuck in one of the league's worst offenses for pass volume, but he's at least the clear second option within said offense, and it's not like the Steelers have been horribly inefficient — they're 21st in points per drive (1.80) and 20th in yards (28.6).

The Raiders rank similarly on defense, with the massive catch that they've faced just one strong offense (Baltimore) and otherwise have taken on the Chargers, Panthers, Browns and Broncos. None of those four lightweight offenses has sent many targets to tight ends, which explains why the Raiders also rank middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to tight ends (14th). Expect that number to drop over the next few weeks, starting with a solid game from Freiermuth this Sunday.

Other Good Matchups: Kyle Pitts (at CAR), Tucker Kraft (vs. ARZ)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco (at TEN)

Start Instead of Richardson — Brock Purdy (at SEA), Jordan Love (vs. ARZ), Justin Fields (at LV)

Start Instead of Flacco — Aaron Rodgers (vs. BUF), Daniel Jones (vs. CIN)

Malik Willis and Tyler Huntley combined for 113 rushing yards and two TDs against Tennessee in Weeks 3-4, but no defense has been stingier in terms of passing production, with the Titans having limited Caleb Williams and Aaron Rodgers to 269 total passing yards. They've given up just three passing touchdowns and a league-low 5.7 YPA, and every projected starter was at least a limited participant in practice coming out of a Week 5 bye. There are other reasons to think the stinginess against QBs will persist, including Tennessee's slow-paced, ineffective offense, which lends to low-volume, low-scoring games. Titans games have averaged only 114.5 cumulative plays — second least in the league (Chargers - 111.3) and 7 percent below league average.

There are also non-matchup-related drawbacks for the Indianapolis quarterbacks. In Richardson's case, he might have his already-disappointing rushing volume scaled back even further in his first game back from an oblique injury. For Flacco, the concern is that he'll have less help around him after RG Will Fries (tibia), WR Michael Pittman (back) and RB Trey Sermon (collarbone) suffered injuries in the shootout loss at Jacksonville. Fries is presumably out for the season, and Pittman may soon be placed on IR.

Other Tough Matchups: Trevor Lawrence (at CHI), Aaron Rodgers (vs. BUF), Justin Herbert (at DEN), Aidan O'Connell (vs. PIT)

Running Backs 👎

Brian Robinson (at BAL) — 62% started

Start Instead — Najee Harris (at LV), Tony Pollard (vs. IND), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. HOU)

A smash success relative to where he was drafted, Robinson has scored double-digit fantasy points every week this season, with a pair of TDs making up for his 18-yard showing this past Sunday against the Browns. He may play through his knee injury again, but there's obvious risk for workload reduction after he didn't take any snaps after halftime in the 34-13 win over Cleveland. On top of that, Robinson will have to contend with a Baltimore defense that's given up the third fewest PPR points to RBs (17.6) while limiting the position to a league-low 2.9 YPC.

Baltimore's opponents have found far more success attacking a slow, old secondary that seems to be struggling with communication and assignments under new coordinator Zach Orr. Austin Ekeler's receiving skills and workload production would make him a worthwhile RB2 start if Robinson doesn't play, but this isn't the spot to take a shot on Jeremy McNichols in such a scenario.

J.K. Dobbins (at DEN) — 44% started

Start Instead — Tony Pollard (vs. IND), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. HOU) Chase Brown (at NYG)

Dobbins ran all over the Raiders and Panthers in Week 1-2 but then got shut down by the Steelers and Chiefs after taking over a bigger role. He'll now get a third straight difficult matchup coming out of the bye, playing on the road against a Broncos defense that's allowing the ninth fewest PPR points to running backs and eighth least yards per carry (4.0). I'm also not sure Gus Edwards' ankle injury really matters, as Dobbins may already be maxed out from a workload perspective. An absence for Edwards might just open the door for Kimai Vidal or Hassan Haskins to get involved, which ultimately could prove more threatening to Dobbins than Edwards had been. That's not to say Dobbins will lack for snaps/touches this week; just don't expect standout efficiency in the tough road matchup.

Other Tough Matchups: James Cook (at NYJ), Rhamondre Stevenson & Antonio Gibson (vs. HOU), Trey Sermon or Tyler Goodson (at TEN), Alexander Mattison (vs. PIT), Rico Dowdle (vs. DET)

Wide Receivers 👎

DeVonta Smith (vs. CLE) — 53% started

Start Instead — Jayden Reed (vs. ARZ), Zay Flowers (vs. WAS), Terry McLaurin (at BAL)

Smith likely will have cleared concussion protocol by the time you're reading this, and his track record is such that most fantasy managers won't have the luxury of benching him. For those who do have similar alternatives at wide receiver, this is a good week to roll with them instead of Smith, as the Eagles are favored by 9.5 over a Browns team that still defends the pass reasonably well (57.7 completion percentage, 6.7 YPA) but is otherwise a total mess.

There's not much chance for a shootout here, and Smith will have to share limited targets with a healthy A.J. Brown and thriving Dallas Goedert. Brown at least figures to run nearly all of his routes across from struggling perimeter corner Martin Emerson, Denzel Ward (hamstring) or whoever replaces Ward, whereas Smith figures to spend a lot of time inside dealing with rock-solid slot corner Greg Newsome and speedy linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. There's a good chance this will be a four-catch type week for Smith.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. SF) — 49% started

Start Instead — Tank Dell (at NE), Diontae Johnson (vs. ATL), Brian Thomas (at CHI)

Smith-Njigba is benefitting from a faster-paced, pass-first offense, averaging 8.0 targets per game, but it's harder to find progress in his real-life performance. His aDOT is up a little compared to last year, from 5.9 to 7.1, and yet he's dropped from 10.0 yards per catch to 8.9, producing just 56 yards on 10 targets more than 10 yards downfield and forcing just one missed tackle on 25 receptions within 10 yards of the LOS. Smith-Njigba mostly looks like a mediocre possession receiver, and this week he'll have to contend with slot corner Deommodore Lenoir and LB Fred Warner in the middle of the field.

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are more likely to get shots at exploiting San Francisco's vulnerable safeties, while JSN gets a tougher matchup against a defense with the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback (-0.14) against passes within 10 yards of the LOS. The 49ers have given up plenty of production out of the slot, but it's overwhelmingly been in areas of the field that Smith-Njigba rarely occupies.

Other Tough Matchups: Mike Evans (at NO), Brian Thomas & Christian Kirk (vs. CHI), Garrett Wilson & Allen Lazard (vs. BUF), Khalil Shakir & Keon Coleman (at NYJ), Quentin Johnston & Joshua Palmer (at DEN)

Tight Ends 👎

Mark Andrews (vs. WAS) — 56% started

Start Instead — Tyler Conklin (vs. BUF), Cade Otton (at NO), Hunter Henry (vs. HOU)

It amazes me that so many people continue to start Andrews when the problem isn't just a lack of production but also an obvious shortage of playing time and targets (38.0 snaps and 2.4 targets per game). He played less than half the snaps in each of Baltimore's past three contests, running fewer routes than Isaiah Likely each time. Likely hasn't seen many targets either, apart from the Week 1 outburst, but he at least spends more time working the flats for easy looks, which means he'll spend less time contending with Washington's excellent new pair of linebackers, Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu.

Matchups may largely explain why the Commanders have allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but there's also plenty of reason to think opponents will continue attacking the perimeter, where no defense has allowed a higher completion percentage (77.4) or more yards per attempt (8.9). Baltimore's passing game already runs through Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, and there's not much reason to deviate this week.