CFB FanDuel DFS Breakdown for Saturday Main Slate
Shootout Potential (games featuring high implied totals on both sides)
No 60-plus point totals this week, and most of the higher game totals feature one-sided matchups. However, there are two games that feature reasonably high totals with close spreads where stacking both sides makes some sense.
- Michigan (27.0) at USC (29.5) - 56.5 total
- TCU (28.5) at Kansas State (27.0) - 55.5 total
Blowout Potential (Games featuring two-plus TD spreads)
Vegas pegs a handful of games as potential blowouts this week, where one side is heavily favored over the other. In some cases, these games result in starters resting during the second half, which could allow backups to achieve more fantasy value than usual. Here are this week's games
- Washington State (13.0) at Ole Miss (44.5) - 57.5 total
- NC State (18.0) at Notre Dame (40.5) - 58.5 total
- Kansas (22.0) at Texas Tech (36.5) - 58.5 total
- Ohio State (32.5) at Illinois (18.0) - 50.5 total
Other Noteworthy Implied Totals
- Florida State (34.5)
College Football DFS Weather (winds 15+ MPH, precip. chance 50-plus percent and hot/cold temps noted)
Indiana at Oregon - Significant chance of rain throughout that could lead to more turnovers and a slight impact on offensive production
Notable College Football Injuries/Absences for Week 7
QB
Austin Simmons, Ole Miss - Still not 100 percent but getting closer, unlikely to start
Tommy Castellanos, Florida State - Listed probable for Saturday, seemingly fine to start
John Mateer, Oklahoma - Upgraded to probable, but real questions about how much he'll play
RB
Dylan Edwards, Kansas State - Sidelined Saturday after limited action last week
Desmond Reid, Pittsburgh - Deemed questionable on injury report
Carson Hansen, Iowa State - Listed questionable on the availability report
Caden Durham, LSU - Listed probable for Saturday
Roydell Williams, Florida State - Listed probable for Saturday
WR
Ryan Williams, Alabama - Deemed probable on availability report
Aaron Anderson, LSU - Likely a game-time call Saturday
Parker Livingstone, Texas - Listed probable for Saturday
Dre'lon Miller, Colorado - Tabbed as doubtful
Squirrel White, Florida State - Sports questionable tag
Keontez Lewis, Oklahoma - Listed questionable after a brutal collision with a brick wall last Saturday
Jaden Greathouse, Notre Dame - Won't suit up Saturday
TE
Randy Pittman, Florida State - Considered questionable
Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon - Departed last week visibly limping, worth keeping an eye on Saturday's availability report
College Football DFS Tools
- FanDuel Lineup Optimizer
- Matchups Page (Vegas odds, opponent averages, etc.)
- Advanced Lineups Page
- Stats
- Team Trends
- Targets
- Defense vs. Position
- Team Rankings
Week 7 CFB DFS Plays on FanDuel
Quarterback
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss ($11,200) vs. Washington State
Chambliss has impressed in his starting role for the Rebels this season and now gets a Coogs team that has lost its head coach and star QB to Oklahoma, and it's not a roster capable of keeping pace with many power conference squads. Ole Miss should dominate this one, and Chambliss should be front and center in this attack. Don't be surprised if the starters get a rest at some point, though Lane Kiffin has shown time and again he's willing to keep his starters in during blowouts later than most. Wazzu has question marks across the board, so it doesn't hurt to load up on this spot.
Avery Johnson, Kansas State ($9,800) vs. TCU
Johnson is in a spot where he'll likely need to play hero ball again this week. Dylan Edwards is sidelined with an injury, and the backfield won't be of much help, plus he gets a matchup versus a TCU defense allowing a slate-high 7.9 yards per pass attempt, along with 2.0 passing touchdowns per contest. The Wildcoasts boast a decent expected score at 27.0, and Johnson will likely need to do the heavy lifting to get there. The Horned Frogs have allowed just 79 rushing yards and a pair of TDs to opposing QBs through five games thus far, so there is some risk, but each of the last two QBs has run for a score and three of the last four have thrown for 276-plus passing yards.
Mason Heintschel, Pittsburgh ($8,500) at Florida State
Heintschel is still green under center but didn't look it last week against Boston College, racking up 323 passing yards and four touchdowns in his first career start. Now, this matchup is on the road and a bit more worrisome as a result, but "I like the stock" against a Seminoles defense that grades out top 10 nationally against the run but is a bottom-30 unit in coverage per PFF. Carson Beck exploited that last week, and Heintschel is more than capable of doing the same. I'd still be a bit more comfortable with Heintschel if he had Desmond Reid as a safety outlet, so keep an eye on Reid's status leading up to the contest..
Also consider: Ty Simpson, Alabama ($12,000) at Missouri
Running Back
The Top Dogs
Justice Haynes, Michigan ($10,600) at USC
Haynes has clearly asserted himself as the Wolverines' lead back, notching at least 100 rushing yards and a touchdown in every game thus far. While USC has seemingly kept opposing rushing attacks in check, the Trojans have played most of their games with a comfortable lead, leading to fewer rushing attempts. Illinois' backs ran for 144 yards on 29 carries last week, and the Wolverines have a backfield on another level. This is also a contest where the staff will lean on its workhorse more heavily in a close matchup, and the Trojans' run defense doesn't grade out particularly well (64th nationally via PFF).
Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss ($10,200) vs. Washington State
Ole Miss is the heaviest favorite on this slate for a reason and should be able to score at will. Lacy can serve as a pivot from Chambliss at quarterback if you're looking to go elsewhere under center, but including both shouldn't be off the table either. The Coogs surrender 4.3 yards per carry and 1.8 rushing scores per contest on the year, but two opposing backfields accumulated north of 40 points against the run defense (Washington and North Texas). Lacy is likely the best back Wazzu has faced to date, and I expect him to find plenty of running room in his own right.
Also consider: Jadarian Price, Notre Dame ($9,400) vs. NC State
Mid-Tier Targets
J'Koby Williams ($9,600) and Cameron Dickey ($8,700), Texas Tech vs. Kansas
This pair seems like one of the more obvious possible options on the slate. The Jayhawks actually grade out reasonably well as a pass defense, but the run defense leaves much to be desired, checking in 83rd nationally via PFF. The Red Raiders aren't afraid to feed the backfield, evidenced by the combined 43 touches between Williams and Dickey last week versus Houston. That said, backs haven't posted huge numbers as receivers against the Jayhawks, so I may lean slightly toward Dickey as the more favorable fantasy play, accounting for 70 carries to Williams' 58 through five games. The staff will get both involved and they should each have a chance or two to find paydirt, so both should be in play.
Kevorian Barnes, TCU ($7,900) at Kansas State
When healthy, Barnes has proven himself the best of the bunch, and he was treated as such last week in his return, handling 17 touches against Colorado. While that didn't pan out against the Buffs in terms of sizable scoring, I'm still willing to give it another try against the Wildcats, who yield 167.7 rushing yards and 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game. They grade out among the worst rush defenses on the slate, and Barnes should garner a workload that should allow him to take advantage of that front. This is expected to be a high-scoring affair, so this isn't a terrible spot to dip your toes.
Bargain Options
Joe Jackson, Kansas State ($6,300) vs. TCU
With Dylan Edwards limited to 10 carries last week, it was Jackson who led the way with 13 carries for 61 yards, adding five catches for another 41 yards as a receiver. While TCU's defense is more stout against the run, Jackson should handle a heftier volume yet, and he still figures to be heavily involved in the passing attack. Given the minimal investment cost for what should be a featured back Saturday, I expect Jackson to be heavily rostered, and rightly so.
Micah Welch, Colorado ($6,100) vs. Iowa State
Welch has handled double-digit carries in each of the last two contests and figures to carry most of the load again Saturday with DeKalon Taylor and Simeon Price both out again. Dallan Hayden should still mix in, but there is a real opportunity for Welch and the Buffs to get something going on the ground here. The Cyclones grade out as one of the worst run defenses in college football and were torched a week ago to the tune of 24 carries for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns. I chose the wrong back in Tawee Walker in that one, but the process was correct. Low ownership may still ensue, as Iowa State's run defense numbers don't look bad, but Welch is a possible GPP option if you're looking to differentiate.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
The Top Dogs
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State ($11,200) at Illinois
Smith and the Buckeyes rank among the biggest blowout candidates on the slate, but I think the star wideout could be primed for a big showing this week. The Illini have fared poorly against both the run and the pass this season, but the pass defense had been particularly poor, grading out 124th in coverage, per PFF. Smith should be able to feast on this secondary as the Buckeyes aim to make a statement against a ranked Illinois coming off back-to-back wins, including one over USC, following a rough showing against Indiana.
Makai Lemon, USC ($10,400) vs. Michigan
Lemon is the clear leader in this wide receiver room, and, luckily for him, the Wolverines' slot cornerbacks haven't graded out particularly well. For USC to meet its implied total, the Trojans are better served by attacking the Maize and Blue's 36th-ranked secondary than consistently running into the teeth of the fourth-ranked run defense in the land. The perimeter defenders for Michigan have fared better overall, and Rod Moore figures to lock down USC's tight ends and running backs, which leaves Lemon as the obvious mismatch. That could lead to more double-coverage than usual, but Lincoln Riley's play designs work well to create openings for Lemon to exploit.
Mid-Tier Targets
Ryan Williams, Alabama ($8,900) at Missouri
Alabama may fly under the radar a bit this week without a huge implied point total, but it's the passing attack that will likely need to get it done with the running game facing one of the better rush defenses in the country. Williams at below $9,000 while Germie Bernard is at $9,600 makes sense, given Williams' missed time and Bernard's production to date, but Williams has an explosive upside that Bernard can't reach, evidenced by his 31 FD-point effort against Wisconsin. If I'm taking a chance on the Bama passing attack with Simpson, Williams is still my pairing.
Duce Robinson, Florida State ($8,100) vs. Pittsburgh
Robinson has assumed the clear alpha status in this Seminoles wideout room, handling a 26.3 percent target share; that's good enough to rank him eighth in target share on the slate. While Castellanos isn't the most reliable passer in the world, his arm (along with his legs) may be relied upon more often Saturday against a Pitt defensive front that grades out as a top-10 rush defense. The coverage only grades out 49th overall, while the 'Noles 34.5 implied total suggests Vegas expects them to put up some points. The best avenue to that total seems like extra passing attack running through Robinson and company.
Dallas Wilson, Florida ($7,600) at Texas A&M
I recommended Wilson last week when he was minimum-priced against Texas, but the secret is now out about how good the true freshman looks after turning seven targets into six catches for 111 yards and two touchdowns in his collegiate debut. He led Gators wideouts in targets in the contest and should do so again this week versus an A&M defense that's solid but still only grades out 41st in coverage via PFF. Wilson is simply a premier talent, and I anticipate his salary only continuing to climb from here. I'll take my chance on him at $7,600, and that's my best offer
Bargain Options
Kyle Parker, LSU ($5,600) vs. South Carolina - if Aaron Anderson is out
Anderson is viewed as a likely true game-time call Saturday, but if he's unable to give it a go, Parker should be in for a heftier workload than usual. Parker has already seen his production climb over the past pair of game, amassing eight catches for 75 yards and a touchdown on nine targets, but he could provide his best game to date Saturday against a South Carolina coverage unit that grades out 86th nationally, per PFF. This Tigers offense has sputtered in the early going, so it will likely take advantage of any opportunity it can to get the gears turning, and this could be one.
Andrew Marsh, Michigan ($5,200) at USC
Marsh made his first start of the season last week versus Wisconsin and didn't disappoint, racking up four catches for 80 yards. The true freshman was still third among Michigan wideouts in targets behind Donaven McCulley and Semaj Morgan, but Marsh is much more of a big-play threat, averaging 18.3 yards per target compared to McCulley's 9.7 and Morgan's 7.8. In a closer game versus USC that figures to feature more of the passing attack, don't be shocked if Marsh flashes a bit more.