Alabama vs. Indiana Best Bets for the Rose Bowl
The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3) and the Indiana Hoosiers (13-0) meet Thursday at 4 p.m. EST at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California in the College Football Playoffs Semifinals in the Rose Bowl presented by Prudential. The game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN.
The Crimson Tide are the team with the history, the prestige, and the recent national championships, etc. The Hoosiers are the relative new kid on the block. Yes, Indiana made the CFP last season, but it was quickly dispatched in the first round on the road at Notre Dame, the eventual national champion runner-up. Now, the Hoosiers hope to take it a step further. In fact, by earning the bye and No. 1 seed, it has already gone further without even playing a game. But it isn't just about personal bests; it's about being THE best, and Indiana has that potential.
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The Crimson Tide are here, and they validated their selection by the CFP committee, taking down Oklahoma in its place in the 8-9 game in Norman, becoming the first-ever team to win a playoff game on the road, with Miami joining the club the next day with a 10-3 win at Texas A&M.
The Hoosiers head to the Rose Bowl for the first time since Jan. 1, 1968, when it fell 14-3 against USC in front of 102,946 fans. The Hoosiers certainly hope to have a much better experience here. But it's been a while, so drink it all in, Indiana. And, good on ya.
Indiana sports QB Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner, but there is a lot more to it for the Hoosiers than that. The offense is littered with talent, and the defense is about as nasty as any group in the nation. Just ask Ohio State. And, coach Curt Cignetti has certainly earned his flowers, taking a backwaters Big Ten perennial doormat, and turning them into a national powerhouse in just two seasons.
Whenever I think of the Rose Bowl, I think of the sunsets, the San Gabriel Mountains and Keith Jackson. I don't necessarily think Indiana, or certainly Alabama. But, that's what we have, and it's going to be a good one.
Alabama vs Indiana Betting Odds for the Rose Bowl
Spread: Alabama +7.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Indiana -7 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Total: Over 47.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 48.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Alabama +205 (Caesars Sportsbook); Indiana -250 (DraftKings)
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Alabama vs Indiana Betting Picks for the Rose Bowl
The Crimson Tide heads to the West Coast looking to not only stay alive, but also become the first three-loss team to make it to the Semifinals round. Heck, just by making it this far, Alabama has more losses than anybody has ever had.
Alabama started the season with that ugly, potentially devastating loss to Florida State, a non-bowl team. It was also absolutely waxed in the SEC Championship Game by Georgia, failing to run the football against the sturdy Bulldogs' defense. Last week, while it won 34-24 at Oklahoma, it was another uneven offensive performance, relying too heavily upon the arm of QB Ty Simpson, while the rushing struggled again. That's a problem. A BIG problem.
Indiana gets a lot of press for its Heisman QB, the personality of Cignetti, etc. But, it might be the defense that is the engine keeping this Hoosiers machine humming. The Hoosiers allowed just 257.2 total yards per game to rank 4th in the nation, while giving just 179.5 passing yards, 77.6 rushing yards (3rd) and 10.8 points (2nd) allowed per game. If you're going to beat IU, it will come through the air, but the Hoosiers were 18th against the pass, too, so there are very little holes.
When the Hoosiers have the ball, Mendoza is very careful with the ball. He doesn't make a lot of stupid mistakes, and that goes back to his time at Cal when he was very good, too. Cignetti recognized that, and was wise to grab this kid. But, WRs Omar Cooper Jr. (58-804-11) and Elijah Sarratt (51-687-12) are studs, and WR Charlie Becker (25-515-2) is a reliable option who had a big catch in the 13-10 win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
In the run game, RB Roman Hemby (918 yards, 6 TDs) tops the charts, but it's a three-headed monster with RB Kaelon Black (799 yards, 7 TDs) and RB Khobie Martin (452 yards, 6 TDs) factoring in. Mendoza can pull it down and do his thing, too, punching in six scores on the ground, an often overlooked part of his game.
For Alabama, Simpson completed 64.1 percent of his passes for 3,500 yards, 28 TDs and just 5 INTs. He doesn't make a lot of mistakes, either. He is a pocket passer, though, and not a dual-threat option. RB Jam Miller is the best of the lot, running for 504 yards and 3 TDs, but he had just 3.9 yards per carry. RB Daniel Hill, the second-best tailback, also had just 3.9 YPC. Therein lies the problem for the Tide. It's high tide in the passing game, and low tide in the rushing game, and that imbalance is bad news against a suffocating defense.
Still, Alabama is Alabama, and we could see some nerves from Indiana, especially if it gets behind early. The best bet, if you can catch it, is taking the Tide with seven and a hook.
Alabama vs Indiana Rose Bowl Best Bet: Alabama +7.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Alabama vs Indiana Betting Predictions for the Rose Bowl
The Crimson Tide is not just happy to be in the mix; they are playing for the pride of the SEC. The Big Ten has won the national championship in the past two seasons, and with the No. 1 seed Indiana and No. 2 seed Ohio State, it is the favorite to host a trophy again. Alabama is not just playing for itself, but for the pride of the Southeast.
The Hoosiers do not have any pressure. Sure, it's the No. 1 overall seed, but there are still plenty of doubting Thomases who question their viability. Indiana continues to silence the haters and make history. It's quite interesting to see.
I think if Alabama can get anything from its run game, and the defense steps up, it can make life very difficult on the No. 1 overall seed. I see Indiana getting it done, but it should be a close shave.
Score Prediction: Indiana 22, Alabama 16
Alabama vs. Indiana Rose Bowl Player Prop Picks for Thursday, Jan. 1
Alabama QB Ty Simpson - Under 240.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Simpson is tasked with having to do too much, but that's good news for his stats. Usually, things have ground to a halt in the past three games against rival Auburn, Georgia in the SEC title game, and Oklahoma in the first round. He has 232 or fewer passing yards in each game, and it's hard to believe he is going to break out against this hungry, suffocating and powerful Indiana defense.
Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr. - Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Cooper is the leading receiver for the Hoosiers, yet his projection is rather low. It should be easily attainable. The junior from Indianapolis had 64 receiving yards and a TD at Purdue as IU seized the Old Oaken Bucket. He suffered a leg injury in the Big Ten Championship Game, but he is ready to roll in the Rose Bowl. Go rather aggressively on him getting back on track in a big way.
