Cotton Bowl Best Bets: Ohio State vs Miami
The Miami Hurricanes (11-2) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) meet Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. EST at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas in the College Football Playoffs Semifinals in the Cotton Bowl Classic. The game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN.
First off, before we get into this game, we'll talk about the 2003 BCS National Championship in the Fiesta Bowl. That's when these teams last met in a meaningful game. I was born in Ohio, so I tend to cheer for the Buckeyes, although I proudly attended Florida Atlantic University, about an hour north of Miami. Final Four, baby. Don't forget. Anyway...
Living in South Florida, leading up to that game, Hurricanes fans, like they tend to be, were cocky and/or overconfident, ruining the entire experience and making it exciting. I couldn't wait for the game to be over, quite frankly. Miami was a 14-point favorite, and Ohio State was considered too slow; it didn't play anyone. Blah blah blah. All Miami fans do is talk. Talk. Talk. They live in the 1980's and 1990's. That's when the Canes were feared. They were super dangerous. They were a machine, and you just didn't beat them.
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Even Snoop Dogg knows, as he has the famous line in the DJ Khaled song, "Like the U in the 80's". He also references Al Davis saying, "Just win, baby, win." I am not sure who has been more inept in the past two decades -- the Raiders or the Hurricanes.
So, Miami gets a chance to exorcise a lot of demons. It's like a mouthy challenger boxer looking to get a bout with the champ. The Canes finally get their chance to step in the ring with the Buckeyes, who happen to be the undisputed heavyweight champs of college football right now, until they lose. Will that be on New Year's Eve? Let's figure it out together.
Oh, and one more thing before we start. Terry Porter. Sorry, Miami fans, I just had to say it.
Ohio State vs Miami Cotton Bowl Betting Odds
Spread: Miami +9.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Ohio State -9.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 40.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 40.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Miami +290 (Fanatics Sportsbook); Ohio State -350 (BetMGM)
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Ohio State vs Miami Cotton Bowl Betting Picks
The Hurricanes have already played a game in these College Football Playoffs, going to Texas A&M for a low-scoring 10-3 victory in a windy College Station on Dec. 20 as a 3-point underdog as the Under (48.5) easily cashed.
Miami was limited to just 12 first downs, while posting 278 total yards of offense. The Canes were able to gobble up 175 rushing yards and 6.3 rushing yards per carry, while it was plus-2 against Texas A&M in the turnover department. RB Mark Fletcher Jr. abused the Aggies' D with 172 rushing yards and 10.1 yards per carry, including a 56-yard rush in the fourth quarter to set up the game-winning score.
That game-winning score came from WR Malachi Toney, who had five receptions for 22 yards and the TD, but he also had a lost fumble. QB Carson Beck completed 14-of-20 passes for 103 yards, one TD and no picks. Surprisingly, Beck didn't have any miscues. He had 10 interceptions in the final 10 regular-season games, including four in a loss at home to Louisville on Oct. 17, and two in a loss at SMU on Nov. 1.
While Beck has cut down the miscues lately, going to more high-percentage pass attempts, rather than gambling downfield, he is going to have trouble against the suffocating Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes rank No. 1 in total yards allowed (213.5), passing yards (129.1) and points allowed (8.2) per game. And, it was No. 5 in the nation with 84.5 yards per game allowed.
Miami's defense is certainly no slouch, either, led by DL Rueben Bain Jr. The Canes allowed just 281.5 total yards (10th), 194.5 passing yards (31st) and 87.0 rushing yards (7th) per game, while conceding just 13.0 PPG (4th). That's why the total is so low for this game, coupled with the fact that Miami just won a 10-3 game last time out, and Ohio State lost 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game in its most recent outing.
We might not get a defensive slog like the Miami-Texas A&M game, but don't be surprised to see a similar game with both teams at 20 or lower.
Ohio State vs Miami Cotton Bowl Best Bet: Under 40.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Miami vs. Ohio State Betting Predictions
While I didn't likely hide who I might be cheering for, I don't let personal feelings and work or bets get in the way of feelings. That's one of the dumbest things you can do.
The fact is, 9.5 points is way too much for Miami to get catching. I'll gladly take the Hurricanes and the points in this game, and hope that I'm wrong. But Miami has the run game to match Ohio State, and it certainly has the defense. The difference is between the ears of the Steve Buscemi doppleganger Miami has under center. If Beck makes miscues, especially several, due to a fierce pass rush from the Buckeyes, we're going to burn through those 9.5 points rather quickly.
However, Beck hasn't been as mistake-prone lately, and he smartly handed the ball off to Fletcher in College Station. That was easily his best move.
Even with no miscues, though, redshirt-freshman QB Julian Sayin, WRs Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss, as well as TE Max Klare represent a tough matchup. There are so many weapons on offense, and we haven't even gotten to RB Bo Jackson, or goal-line specialist RB CJ Donaldson, or third tailback option Isaiah West. The Buckeyes run deep.
Let's take Ohio State to advance to face the winner of Ole Miss and Georgia, but take Miami with the points, especially if it gets to double digits before the line closes.
Score Prediction: Ohio State 21, Miami 16
Cotton Bowl Player Prop Best Bets for Wednesday, Dec. 31
Ohio State WR Carnell Tate - Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110 FanDuel)
Tate is a much better option than Smith (-160) as an Anytime TD option. While we're expecting a low-scoring defensive slog, somebody is still going to get into the end zone. Tate is as good of an option as any, especially since he enters the game with a four-game touchdown streak, finding the end zone five times in the span. He has nine touchdowns across 10 games, too, and he tends to be a little overlooked in the shadow of his more heralded counterpart.
Miami WR CJ Daniels - Receiving Yards - Under 37.5 Yards (-114 FanDuel)
After a month-long absence due to injury, Daniels returned to the lineup for the regular-season finale at Pittsburgh, finding the end zone on Nov. 29. However, he had two receptions for 40 yards. In the CFP opener at A&M, he managed just two receptions for 29 yards. He is a tertiary option behind Toney and WR Keelan Marion, and against a suffocation Ohio State defense, Daniels isn't going to exceed this projection.
