This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Wednesday brings us another jam-packed college hoops slate featuring many teams that are likely to make the NCAA tournament. Here are my predictions for a few notable games.
Illinois 
at Penn State 
I'm normally not in the business of picking heavy road favorites during conference season, or any season for that matter, but Illinois has a few glaring advantages that make this pick an exception to the rule.
First, aside from massively out-ranking the Nittany Lions in both offensive and defensive efficiency, the Illini have a gigantic edge in the rebounding department. Illinois has the second-best offensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten during conference play, and it's going against a Penn State team that has the worst defensive rebounding percentage in the league in the same period. The story is the same at the other end of the court, where Penn State seldom collects offensive boards, ranking third-worst in the Big Ten compared to third-best in the conference for Illinois.
Second, Illinois is much more likely to win the free-throw category. The Illini excel at attacking the basket and drawing contact, recording the fourth-highest free-throw attempt rate in the Big Ten during league play. That is bad news for the Nittany Lions, because they've had fouling issues on defense, logging the fourth-worst defensive free-throw attempt rate in the conference. Once again, the advantage goes to Illinois when we flip the court, as Illinois outranks Penn State in this same category when the Nittany Lions have the ball.
Third, Illinois has a substantial advantage when attacking the paint. Penn State is not great defensively, and it's particularly atrocious at guarding against inside scoring. The Nittany Lions have had trouble with this all year, allowing opponents to make 53 percent of shots inside the arc, ranked 286th among all D1 teams, and it's only worsened in recent months against league competition, allowing 55 percent to Big Ten opponents, the worst mark in the conference. For the third time, when we turn the court around and give Penn State the ball, Illinois again has the edge in two-point field goals.
Looking at the bottom line, Illinois is simply the far better team with several distinct matchup advantages. I'm laying the points with Illinois in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois -7.5
Duke 
at Miami
The Blue Devils are playing as well as any team in the country. Duke enters Wednesday riding a four-game winning streak, and it has now won 15 of 17 games dating back to early December. It's also covered the spread in its last four consecutive games and five of its last six, according to Action Network. A win is never guaranteed, but the Blue Devils have a great chance of earning a road win if they play up to their usual standards.
The same cannot be said about Miami, currently mired in a four-game losing streak and still dealing with multiple noteworthy injuries. Even worse, the Hurricanes have now lost nine of their last 15 conference games. It's tempting to believe that Miami's success in recent years, combined with high roster continuity, would lead to a turnaround, but this team has not given any indication that this is a real possibility. In hindsight, the writing was on the wall when Miami lost by nine points at home to Louisville in early-January. The Hurricanes were ranked 47th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart before that game, and they've since fallen to 78th.
In addition to having superior efficiency numbers, Duke also holds significant advantages in other important areas over Miami. For starters, Miami is one of the weaker rebounding teams in the ACC, ranking 10th in the conference during league play on both ends of the court. At the same time, Duke is one of the best, ranking top three in the ACC in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. The Blue Devils also have an edge in the turnover department, recording the fifth-best offensive turnover percentage in the ACC during conference play, substantially better than the Hurricanes coming in with the third-worst offensive turnover percentage in the league. The latter will likely once again be a problem, as Duke has logged defensive turnovers at the D1 average rate.
Overall, these two teams have been trending in opposite directions for the past couple of months. Given the big-picture trends and distinct matchup advantages held by Duke, I'm taking the Blue Devils in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke -5.5
Colorado State 
at New Mexico 
Colorado State is having a great season and appears poised to hear its name called on Selection Sunday, but a tough challenge awaits them at The Pit on Wednesday. The Rams have had many impressive performances this season, and yet, much like any other college basketball team, they have struggled to find the same successful results when on the road. Colorado State has played in six road games against conference foes and lost all but one of them.
When stacking these teams against each other, New Mexico has a few advantages on its side. First, big picture, the Lobos outrank the Rams in both offensive and defensive efficiency since the conference season tipped off. New Mexico boasts the highest offensive efficiency rating in the league, and fourth on defense, while Colorado State comes in at seventh on offense and second in defense.
Second, New Mexico has a clear edge in turnovers on both ends of the court. The Lobos lead the conference in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage, so this will be the case in most matchups, but it's worth noting that the Rams rank sixth in offensive turnovers and fifth in defensive turnovers, still a decent margin.
Third, the Lobos also have an advantage in rebounding. New Mexico boasts the 65th-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the nation, noticeably higher than Colorado State's ranking of 119th on the defensive side. The discrepancy is even wider on the end, where the Rams rank 328th in offensive rebounding compared to 97th in defense for New Mexico.
Colorado State got the better of New Mexico the first time these two teams met in early January, but I'm betting the Lobos will successfully get revenge on Wednesday thanks to its numerous matchup advantages. I'm taking the Lobos in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: New Mexico -6
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Illinois -7.5
- Duke -5.5
- New Mexico -6
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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