JJ Bleday

Bleday, the fourth-overall pick in the 2019 draft, saw his stock dip considerably after a disappointing 2021 season in which he hit just .212/.323/.373 in 110 Double-A games. He was promoted to Triple-A at the start of last year and rebounded to post an .835 OPS in 85 games, earning him his first big-league callup in late July. His past struggles in the minors meant he debuted with less fanfare than one might expect for a recent top-five pick, and those who nonetheless remained interested came away disappointed. In 65 games, Bleday hit just 167/.277/.309 with five homers and four steals. While a .216 BABIP helped suppress his average, his .190 xBA still paints a worrisome picture. His 28.2 K% was poor, and when he did make contact, his average launch angle of 25 degrees resulted in too many weak flyouts. That suggests he'll continue to be a batting-average hole, and his sub-par 33.8% hard-hit rate means he's unlikely to hit for enough power to make up for it, even with so many flyballs.

Bleday received rave reviews from the Marlins for his performance at the alternate site, but that's all we've got to go on from his 2020 season, and it's not like they would say anything negative about the No. 4 overall pick from the 2019 draft. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound lefty slugger led the nation with 27 home runs for Vanderbilt as a junior and was better than league average (107 wRC+) while playing in a pitcher's park (Jupiter) in a pitcher's league (Florida State League) after signing. Bleday received a more aggressive assignment in 2019 than more highly touted prospects in his class like Adley Rutschman and Andrew Vaughn. His realistic upside is that he becomes a plus hitter with plus power and average speed, but he is already 23, so if he shows weaknesses in the upper levels this year, his stock will take a hit. On the flip side, he could make his MLB debut this summer if he lives up to his billing.

Thanks to an impressive summer in the Cape Cod League and a big final year at Vanderbilt, Bleday was being mentioned alongside Andrew Vaughn and Adley Rutschman as the best college hitters in the class by the time Miami selected him fourth overall. The main fuel for his ascent up draft boards was a big power spike as a junior, so a .121 ISO in his pro debut raises skepticism about his power breakout. There is one necessary caveat when comparing the trio's production: Bleday was aggressively assigned directly to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, while Vaughn climbed three levels before finishing at High-A and Rutschman only finished the year at Low-A. Bleday won't contribute with his legs and the bat needs to profile in a corner, so his tepid debut is concerning. He figures to spend most of his age-22 season at Double-A, where he will be expected to dominate, based on age and pedigree.