We've got another full slate of major college hoops action on what should be a fun Saturday. For today's round of predictions, I'm circling a pair of games tipping off in the early afternoon, as well as a pivotal SEC matchup in the evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Texas 
at Oklahoma
The best unit in this game is the Longhorns' offensive attack.
Texas has been let down by its defense against tougher teams, but its offense is proving to be explosive enough to beat teams like Alabama (on the road) and Vanderbilt. For the whole season, the Longhorns' offense ranks eighth nationally in adjusted efficiency, 18th in offensive rebounding percentage, and fifth in free-throw attempt rate. These are outstanding marks, and Texas has played at a similar level against league competition.
During the SEC conference season, the Longhorns rank among the top four teams in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and offensive rebounding. During the same span, the Sooners have struggled to consistently get stops. Among SEC teams during league play, Oklahoma's defense is among the three worst teams in efficiency, turnover percentage, and two-point field goal percentage allowed. Texas has made 56 percent of shots inside the arc during league play, the third-best in the SEC, so this is a major area of concern for the Sooners.
At the other end of the court, the Longhorns' defense has been a liability, although they do usually hold down the paint, holding SEC opponents to under 51 percent, the fifth-best mark in the league. Additionally, Oklahoma's offense has played well below the league average in most offensive categories. For context, Oklahoma's offense ranks 11th or lower during the SEC conference season in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnovers, free-throw attempts, and two-point field goal percentage.
In what is basically a pick'em, I'd much rather take the better offensive team. Texas has covered the spread in five of its last six games, per Action Network, and I like its odds of keeping the trend going. I'm taking the Longhorns.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas +1
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Ohio State 
at Wisconsin 
Wisconsin's offense appears to have the most significant advantage in this matchup.
Ohio State's defense has performed below conference standards during league competition, ranking 12th or lower in efficiency, rebounding percentage, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. The latter should be of the utmost concern for the Buckeyes, as the Badgers are highly proficient at drawing contact against Big Ten opponents, logging the fifth-highest free-throw attempt rate. They are also making 80 percent of foul shots, the second-highest mark in the league.
Outside of generating trips to the foul line, Wisconsin seldom turns it over (fourth in the Big Ten), and it's remarkably consistent at scoring from the perimeter. The Badgers have made 34.6 percent of three-point attempts for the whole season, including 34.7 percent against Big Ten opponents, while attempting them at the ninth-highest frequency nationally, giving them a reliable source of points.
Ohio State's offense, meanwhile, has a similar efficiency rating to Wisconsin's, although the key difference between these teams is that Wisconsin has played better defensively. This is most evident on the glass, where the Badgers boast the 11th-highest defensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams, an important trait because the Buckeyes rank 97th in offensive rebounding.
Given a better defense and home court advantage, I gotta go with the Badgers in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wisconsin -4
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Auburn 
at Tennessee
By now, most college hoops fans are likely familiar with Auburn's dangerous offense and its high ceiling. The Tigers' offense ranks among the Top 10 teams nationally in adjusted efficiency, rebounding percentage, and free-throw attempt rate. This might not be news to anyone, although a closer look at each defense reveals some interesting trends.
Specifically, Tennessee's defense, though still a stout unit, has not performed nearly as well against league opponents. During the SEC conference season, Tennessee's defense ranks 10th in efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed. It ranks 11th in two-point field goal percentage allowed (54 percent), and perhaps its most foreboding stat is that it ranks 12th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. The latter could be the deciding factor in this matchup as Auburn leads the SEC in free-throw attempt rate.
Perhaps surprisingly, during the conference season, Auburn's defense outranks Tennessee's defense in efficiency, turnover percentage, rebounding percentage, and two-point field goal percentage. Each team has played at least seven conference games to date, with many opponents overlapping, lending some weight to these defensive trends.
Tennessee's defense can be tough to crack, but Auburn appears to have the right skillset to take advantage. I'm taking the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Auburn +5.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Texas +1
- Wisconsin -4
- Auburn +5.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
