This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A slightly shortened nine-game main slate comes our way Tuesday evening, with games starting between 7:07 and 9:45 p.m. EDT. Three games sit with run totals nine or above, while two are under eight, suggesting some more obvious spots to target bats. There's a clear void of big-name pitching here, so matchups and form are paramount.
Pitching
Charlie Morton, ATL vs. MIA ($9,800): Joe Ryan at $11,000 and Nestor Cortes at $10,500 are set to duel against each other in a potentially low-scoring affair, which I think make them both trendy options but at risk of missing the win bonus. In hopes of differentiating, I'll eye Morton at a discount. He's not the same type of pitcher, but the Marlins didn't get a hit until the eighth inning last night off Spencer Strider. Morton's turned in two straight quality starts but has some volatility, striking out just 6.8 per nine, and his 3.22 ERA isn't supported by a 5.34 xFIP. That should be offset by Miami's 25.2 percent K rate and .293 wOBA against righties.
Jose Berrios, TOR vs. CWS ($7,800): How lost are the White Sox right now? They sit at just 7-16, having dropped five straight and eight of 10, and they've topped three runs only four times in that stretch. They have just a 22.5 percent strikeout rate, limiting the potential ceiling for Berrios, but at this sub $8k price, we're not expecting slate-breaking stuff. The right-hander has quietly allowed just three runs and seven hits across his last 12 innings, and a similar performance certainly gives us a shot at a 4x return.
Jake Woodford, STL at SF ($6,500): With limited star power atop this pitching slate, it stands to reason there's an even bigger struggle in identifying viable paydown options. Woodford has been serviceable across his last three outings, resulting in a 19.0 FDP average, which is just a tick below a 3x return. Clearly not ideal, but again, serviceable on a slate in which we're not sure any arm is a lock for 40 FDP+. The Giants hit righties well, posting a .352 wOBA which currently ranks third, but they also strike out 26.2 percent of the time, giving Woodford a little more potential.
Top Targets
There are only 10 bats priced at $4k or above, so there's an opportunity to grab a plethora of top bats that just aren't priced as such Tuesday. You don't need me to suggest going all the way up either, but it looks like the right spot to deploy Ronald Acuna ($4,600) where you can fit him in. He's a known Marlin killer and didn't get in on yesterday's 11-0 party. Miami also needed 3.2 innings from their bullpen, and have yet to determine their starter here.
Current Mets were 16-of-41 (.390) off Josiah Gray coming into the season, launching four homers while posting a 1.343 OPS. Gray's pitched better this season, so perhaps not going all in on this lineup and just taking their anchor in Pete Alonso ($4,400) makes sense. He's 3-for-6 off the right-hander with a homer, and Gray is allowing a .409 wOBA to same-handed bats thus far.
Bargain Bats
There is quite a list of big-name players to choose from priced around $3,000 who aren't producing at their career norms. It will be easy to get sucked into that morass, and while some of them surely have decent days ahead, try not to overinflate name recognition. Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,000) likely doesn't fall into that category, however. He's riding an 18-game on-base streak and has multiple hits in two straight and three of five, while D'Backs starter Ryne Nelson is allowing a .437 wOBA and 1.017 OPS to lefties.
I believe this Royals-Diamondbacks game has a chance for fireworks, but on the other hand, Brady Singer's 8.14 ERA comes with a 3.89 xFIP, so I don't want to be too invested. Pavin Smith ($3,200) is hot enough he should stay in the lineup even with Christian Walker back to full health. Smith has a team-best .522 wOBA, 230 wRC+ and .346 ISO against righties to date.
Nelson Cruz ($2,900) always makes sense against a lefty as is the case Tuesday, even though the aging slugger has just one hit and no RBI across his last five games. Washington's Joey Meneses ($2,600) seems to be getting it going finally, collecting 10 hits and five RBI in his last seven. The Mets appear to be sending Jose Butto to the mound, who isn't someone to shy away from.
Stacks to Consider
Cubs vs. Blake Snell: Patrick Wisdom ($4,200), Nico Hoerner ($3,700), Seiya Suzuki ($3,100)
Snell is allowing 2.0 HR/9, has a 6.00 ERA and 6.04 FIP, and is allowing a .407 wOBA and .959 OPS to righties. His splits aren't great against lefties either, but this stack fits almost too well, as it gives us the likely 1-2-4 hitters -- who conveniently happen to be the Cubs' best three hitters against southpaws. Suzuki sits with a .501 wOBA, 218 wRC+ and and a low .071 ISO. Wisdom comes in at .444/181/.500, while Hoerner goes .420/165/.045. That seems to give us some on-base potential and stability, while possibly tapping into Wisdom's surging power for bigger upside.
Brewers vs. Spencer Turnbull: Rowdy Tellez ($3,700), Christian Yelich ($3,200), Jesse Winker ($2,900)
Turnbull has a 7.85 ERA and slightly lower 5.61 xFIP while allowing a .420 wOBA and .977 OPS to lefties. Teams have been running opposite-handed batters at him routinely, as he's faced 11 more lefties than righties to date. This stack doesn't need much more analysis; it's the Brewers top three left-handed bats atop the order. Tellez gives us the power upside and Yelich quietly has seven hits and five RBI across his last six games. There's not much positive spin on Winker as he's struggling to produce. There's no way to sugar coat that, and feel free to ditch him in favor of a mini-stack or find a different third piece. The matchup at least suggests there's a hope he wakes up, though.
