Cole Ragans was a top-50 pick, Seth Lugo was a top-180 pick and Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic were drafted in most leagues, but it was Noah Cameron who wound up pacing the Royals in terms of fantasy output during the 2025 season.
Ragans' injury problems were a big reason for this, of course, and it was a Ragans groin injury that initially provided Cameron with his first opportunity at the big-league level in late April. Cameron was sent back to Triple-A Omaha despite 6.1 scoreless innings in his major-league debut, but he returned in mid-May and remained in the Royals' rotation for the remainder of the season. The left-hander finished with a 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 114:43 K:BB over 138.1 frames, covering 24 starts. He was one of 16 pitchers with 130-plus innings to post a sub-3.00 ERA, and Cameron finished as the No. 38 fantasy starter, per RotoWire's Earned Auction Values.
Will the 26-year-old southpaw continue his upward trajectory, or is he due for regression in 2026?
Cameron was a big bat-misser in the minors. He fanned batters at a 29.8 percent clip while on the farm, which included a 28.8 percent strikeout rate over the last two seasons during his time at Omaha. The swing-and-miss came with plus control, as well, with Cameron boasting a 7.1 percent walk rate at the minor-league level.
Despite this, Cameron was seen merely as a mid-level prospect, peaking at No. 138 in James Anderson's prospect rankings for RotoWire. Cameron
Cole Ragans was a top-50 pick, Seth Lugo was a top-180 pick and Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic were drafted in most leagues, but it was Noah Cameron who wound up pacing the Royals in terms of fantasy output during the 2025 season.
Ragans' injury problems were a big reason for this, of course, and it was a Ragans groin injury that initially provided Cameron with his first opportunity at the big-league level in late April. Cameron was sent back to Triple-A Omaha despite 6.1 scoreless innings in his major-league debut, but he returned in mid-May and remained in the Royals' rotation for the remainder of the season. The left-hander finished with a 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 114:43 K:BB over 138.1 frames, covering 24 starts. He was one of 16 pitchers with 130-plus innings to post a sub-3.00 ERA, and Cameron finished as the No. 38 fantasy starter, per RotoWire's Earned Auction Values.
Will the 26-year-old southpaw continue his upward trajectory, or is he due for regression in 2026?
Cameron was a big bat-misser in the minors. He fanned batters at a 29.8 percent clip while on the farm, which included a 28.8 percent strikeout rate over the last two seasons during his time at Omaha. The swing-and-miss came with plus control, as well, with Cameron boasting a 7.1 percent walk rate at the minor-league level.
Despite this, Cameron was seen merely as a mid-level prospect, peaking at No. 138 in James Anderson's prospect rankings for RotoWire. Cameron being viewed as more of a back-end-of-the-rotation starter had mostly to do with an unremarkable four-seamer that sits in the low-90s. The left-hander's 92.3 mph velocity on his fastball in his 24 major-league starts ranked in just the 20th percentile, and the offering garnered a minus-2 run value, per Baseball Savant.
Cameron leaned heavily on a plus changeup during his success in the minors, which is why it was a surprise that his curveball and slider aided much of his ascension during his rookie campaign. Below you'll find images taken from Baseball Savant that detail how well Cameron fared with his breaking balls.
Cameron's curveball garnered a plus-9 run value from Baseball Savant, which was tied with Hunter Brown among starters for the top rating for curveballs. The lefty's slider was rated at plus-7, which was tied for sixth among starting pitchers to throw the offering at least 300 times. Cameron was the only starting pitcher in baseball to have two different breaking balls rated that highly.
Cameron throws five different pitches and spreads out his usage pretty evenly, as he didn't throw any offering more than 26.4 percent or less than 14.3 percent. Unfortunately, his two most-used pitches — the four-seamer and cutter — were his worst. As previously mentioned, the four-seamer netted a minus-2 run value, and it produced an ugly .389 xwOBA. The cutter was even less effective, garnering a minus-4 run value and .393 xwOBA. Those two pitches represented just under half of Cameron's offerings, and he served up 12 of his 18 home runs on the pitches.
Improving the quality of his four-seamer and cutter would be helpful, of course, but Cameron might simply be best off reducing the usage of those pitches. The cutter against right-handed batters, in particular, yielded awful results, with the opposition tattooing it to the tune of a .329 average, .543 slugging percentage and .422 wOBA. Meanwhile, righties hit only .200 with a .322 slugging percentage and .248 wOBA off Cameron's changeup. And yet, Cameron's usage of the cutter (23 percent) and changeup (22.9 percent) versus righty bats was virtually identical.
Cameron carried an 84 percent LOB rate in 2025, which, among the 95 pitchers to log at least 130 innings, ranked as the fourth-highest. He also posted a BABIP of .241, which was the sixth-lowest on that same list. Cameron was very good at inducing weak contact, ranking in the 73rd percentile in hard-hit rate, the 81st percentile in barrel rate and the 82nd percentile in average exit velocity. The Royals also had a good defense this season. Those two factors together make it easier for Cameron to put up an abnormally-low BABIP. However, the odds are still very much against the left-hander repeating his high LOB rate and low BABIP in 2026.
Cameron's best bet to stave off regression next season would be for his changeup to return to being a plus pitch, while at the same time retaining the gains he made with his breaking pitches. Accomplishing both of those things simultaneously is much easier said than done, though. The former requires pronation and the latter requires supination, and mastering the feel for both at the same time is a difficult task.
A quick glance at the disparity in Cameron's minor-league strikeout rate (29.8 percent) versus what he did last season with the Royals (20.5 percent) suggests there's room for improvement, but it's not unusual for a pitcher with Cameron's profile to find it much more difficult to miss bats at the big-league level. Unless he's able to find another gear with his four-seamer velocity, I suspect Cameron's ceiling might be around a league-average strikeout rate. Between that and the inevitable LOB and BABIP regression, you're probably looking at more of a streamer in 12-team fantasy leagues. Cameron's early NFBC ADP is currently 247.8, which isn't unreasonable, but I can quickly spot a handful of guys being taken after him that I'd rather have (Joe Musgrove, Quinn Priester, et al).
