Leaderboard of the Week: xHR Laggards

Baseball Savant posts a metric that tracks how many home runs a batter was expected to hit (xHR) compared to their actual home run total. If a batter is not hitting their xHR total, they could see some upward regression the next season. I examined 10 guys who could be on the rebound. 

One note on the leaderboard: the overall xHR total is 182 HR behind the actual number of home runs. Because of these differences, the numbers below should be higher. 

Salvador Perez 

Perez's 30 homers were the second-highest total in his career (behind his 48 in 2021). At 35, he doesn't seem to be slowing down. He set a career-high max exit velocity at 114.8 mph. His 15 percent barrel rate was the second highest of his career behind his 2021 season. His 19.5 percent strikeout rate is the lowest since 2017. 

The team keeps him fresh by limiting him to 90 games at catcher per season. That number may even go down more in 2026 with Carter Jensen taking over more of the catching duties.  

Roman Anthony

No matter how you examine Anthony, all signs point upward. Among all hitters with 100 balls in play, his 60 percent hard-hit rate led the league. He was fifth in average exit velocity. About 50% percent of all barrels league-wide go for home runs; Anthony hit 27 Barrels and managed only eight homers. It would be nice to see him raise his seven-degree launch angle into the double digits, however.

Vinnie Pasquantino

When examining Pasquantino, I found no upside. His power metrics were mixed (barrel rate up, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity down). His strikeout rate was a career high, and his walk rate was a career low. It would be tough for me to expect more home runs than the 32 he hit last season.  

Jesus Sanchez

First off, I have no idea how much Sanchez will play or what team he'll be on. The Astros will need to make some trades or cuts. Otherwise, several regulars will take a playing time hit. 

Sanchez will remain a platoon bat thanks to his career .520 OPS versus lefties and .774 OPS against righties. The 27-year-old posted a career-low 22 percent strikeout rate last season. More balls in play means a better chance for home runs. He was having a normal season but struggled (.611 OPS) in 48 games with the Astros. He's had worse 48-game stretches in his career, so I expect a rebound: 

Gabriel Arias 

While Arias only hit 11 HR in 129 games last season, he has 20-homer upside if given a full season of at-bats. The problem with him isn't power, it's his 34 percent strikeout rate. For his career, he's posted a .630 OPS. Teams don't want to be starting a replacement-level hitter with a strikeout rate north of 30 percent. Still, he's a free, deep-league power option when playing. 

Masyn Winn

In 2024, Winn hit 15 homers, but he only hit nine this past season. Part of the decline could have been from dealing with knee troubles, which eventually required surgery. Reports stated that it bothered him before the All-Star break. The power dropoff is obvious.

 I'm sure the knee surgery will eventually improve his game, but he might not be fully healthy in 2025.  

Lenyn Sosa 

I'm surprised Sosa made the list of underperformers after a 22-homer breakout last season. He pulled off the trifecta for hitting more home runs by pulling the ball more (increasing his pull rate from 34 to 39 percent), lifting it more (increasing his launch angle from 12 to 18 degrees), and hitting it harder (increasing his average exit velocity from 89.0 to 90.7 mph). And all three metrics improved in the second half. 

Previously, it was stated that Roman Anthony led the league in hard hit rate. The next three guys were Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. And fifth was Sosa. 

The 25-year-old is getting no respect with a 255 ADP. He's a smash at that pick.  

Bryan Reynolds

Reynolds had the worst season of his career with just 16 homers, three setals, and a .245 average. He dealt with tricep soreness early in the season that kept him from playing in the outfield. The injury may have affected his batting. He posted just a .656 OPS in the first half and a reasonable .816 OPS in the second half.  

Something else might have been wrong, because his last stolen base attempt was May 2. He seemed to be protecting his body.  

Christopher Morel 

Morel is similar to Arias in that he might not have the contact skills (36 percent strikeout rate, .219 average) to stay in the league. The Rays played him in 27 games in April, but never more than 17 in any other month. The Rays also decided to non-tender him and let him become a free agent. 

Like Sosa, Morel committed to hitting home runs by completing the power trifecta. He pulled the ball more (going from 47 percent to 55 percent), lifted it more (going from a 14.2 degree launch angle to 16.9 degrees) and hit the ball harder (increasing his average exit velocity from 89.2 mph to 91.8 mph).  

Jordan Walker

Everyone continues to hope Walker is a thing after he hit 16 homers with a .276 average during his rookie season. Since then, his strikeouts have increased (from 22 percent 28 to 32), but so has his power (from a 89.4 mph average exit velocity to 91.2 to 92.3).

Because he couldn't hit (.584 OPS) and had subpar defense (-6 OAA) last season, the Cardinals were forced to sit him. He only got 111 starts (396 PA). His -1.2 WAR was the league's sixth worst.