This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 3-1, +1.23
Overall: 151-124-2, +10.22
Rays vs. Red Sox, 4:07 p.m. EDT
Drew Rasmussen vs. Nathan Eovaldi
Opening Line: Rays -113, Total 8.5
Current Line: Red Sox -106, Total 8.5
The Rays will employ a heavy left-handed lineup rather than the heavy right-handed lineup we saw in the first two games. Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi and Joey Wendle are in, while Yandy Diaz, Jordan Luplow and Manuel Margot are out. Brandon Lowe moves up to the leadoff spot from the three hole, Randy Arozarena goes from leadoff to the two spot, Wander Franco goes from the two spot to the three spot. The Rays want to go lefty/righty as much as possible at the top of the lineup to maximize platoons and matchups against relievers.
I have written about the Red Sox home/road splits the last two months, which have influenced my betting strategy significantly. The trends have intensified the last two months.
The Red Sox at home: .281/.351/.481, 20.4 K%, 8.8 BB%, 5.8 runs per game (6.2 in Sept, 8.2 in August)
The Red Sox on the road: .245/.309/.423, 24.7 K%, 7.9 BB%, 4.5 runs per game
In the nine games at Fenway in this series, the total number of runs has been 28, 13, 21, 11, 19, 11, 12, 9 and 3. Since June 10, the Red Sox have scored at least five runs in a home game in 30 of 47 games (64 percent). And 80 percent of the games have been decided by two runs or less, so the -1.5 run line does not come into play often.
Twenty-seven of the last 30 home games for the Red Sox have had a posted total of 9.0 or higher — 8.5 is uncharted territory and probably unwarranted Sunday. I have this projected more at Red Sox -130 and total of 9.
The Rays hitting is about the same home or road, but the pitching tells a different story. The ERA on the road since Aug. 1 has been 4.91 vs. 3.20 at home. The WHIP on the road 1.35 vs. 1.12.
I am going to stay away from the winner of this game, but I do like the Red Sox F5 due to Eovaldi being so strong at home and they are 2nd in runs scored at home in F5's with 3.63 and the Rays are 18th on the road at 2.3. I also like the strength of the data in Red Sox team totals going over at home and the game totals going over.
BET: Red Sox over 4.5 runs (+115) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Over 8.5 runs (-115) for 0.5 RWBuck
BET: Red Sox -0.5 F5 (+110) for 0.5 RWBuck
Astros vs. White Sox, 8:07 p.m. EDT
Opening Line: Astros -105, Total 8.5
Current Line: White Sox -118, Total 8.5
The Astros have scored 5.6 runs per game at home since Aug. 1 vs. 4.6 runs per game on the road. The White Sox have an incredible record at home as favorites between -100 to -150 at 18-4. They railed off 17 in a row in this scenario this season. As much as I love the Astros in the series and overall, I just can not ignore the line move on the White Sox and the strong record in this scenario. On the flip side, the Astros are just 5-8 as road underdogs between -100 and -150.
Dylan Cease has been better at home (3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) vs. road (4.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). He had two starts against the Astros this year. He got smashed in Houston on June 17, giving up six earned runs in 3.1 innings, but he had a strong outing at home going 5.2 innings, striking out 10 and allowing three earned runs.
Luis Garcia has been much worse on the road (4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs. (2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP). According to DraftKings fantasy points, 10 of his best 12 outings have come at home, while nine of his worst 13 outings have come on the road.
BET: White Sox ML (-118) for 1 RWBuck
