Leaderboard of the Week: Late-Round Hitters to Target

In this year's edition of The Process, Russell Withers wrote the following on Addison Barger being a late draft-and-hold option simply because he was projected to be a league-average hitter.

Barger debuted in 2024 and played 69 games, so he was no longer rookie-eligible heading into 2025. He hit .197 in those 69 games, which understandably soured a lot of people. And yet Steamer still projected him for a 103 wRC+. Anyone available in these late rounds who the projection systems think should be a league-average or better bat—even after a bad MLB debut—should be given serious consideration.

Withers created the Horwitz Rule that identifies these late-round targets. 

Today, I'm going to give my thoughts on some players going after pick 500 in NFBC draft-and-hold leagues who are projected to be league-average hitters. 

To find league-average hitters, I'm using Steamer Projections from FanGraphs and ranking them by wRC+. A 100 wRC+ means the hitter is league average, and a 105 wRC+ means they are five percent better than league average.

Joc Pederson and Masataka Yoshida: These strong-side platoon bats probably take a hit because they don't have a position and are utility-only. With many good utility-only guys being drafted before them, teams don't see a way to roster more than one. Both are great bargains if a manager can get them in their lineup.

Rob Refsnyder: Refsnyder will always have a great projection because he only faces and crushes lefties (career .826 OPS vs LHP, .633 OPS vs RHP). Solid production, limited playing time. 

Nathan Lukes and Davis Schneider: The Blue Jays have a slew of riches, with two above-average bats as bench options. Both are being passed over because there is no obvious need in the lineup. And if one appears, both will be fighting for the spot. I'm sure at some point during the season, one or both will be a viable fantasy option. It's just tough to know when.  

Luis Campusano: The 108 wRC+ seems quite high for a hitter with a career. 88 wRC+ over six seasons (592 PA). I wouldn't mind throwing a dart in a waiver wire league. If he fails again, he can be dropped. If he succeeds, he's a great sleeper.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: If you're in a deep league with a large IL and bench, Gurriel is a solid add. He won't be healthy until after the All-Star break.

Miguel Andujar: Of all the unsigned players on this list, I'd roster Andujar. He's been a solid player over the past three seasons, hitting .296/.332/.431 over that time. One complaint is that he struggles against righties. He's not as good against righties (.734 career OPS) compared to lefties (.807 OPS), but he's still a solid player. 

Nathaniel Lowe, Paul Goldschmidt and Ty France: These three unsigned first basemen will see their stock soar once/if they latch on with a team.   

JJ Bleday: When looking at the current Reds outfield, Bleday is projected to be the best overall hitter. Better than Noelvi Marte (140 ADP) and TJ Friedl (267 ADP). Bleday's stock dropped when his strikeout rate jumped from 20 percent in 2024 to 27 percent last year. If he can get his strikeout rate back to around 20 percent, he could hit 20 or more home runs in that high school ballpark.

Johnathan Rodriguez: Over the past three seasons, Rodriguez has been destroying Triple-A, batting .301/.390/.535 with 56 home runs in 1,083 plate appearances. He struggled with strikeouts in his first season in Triple-A, but they've dropped each season (from 33 percent to 25 percent to 23 percent). Also, he's struggled in 117 major-league plate appearances, with a .586 OPS and 31 percent strikeout rate. He needs to translate his Triple-A power to the majors. 

Ryan Waldschmidt and Jonathon Long: This prospect duo is poised to take the next step in the majors. For a while, it seemed like  Waldschmidt could make the team out of camp, but the addition of Nolan Arenado crowded up the roster. The issue with Long is that he's a below-average fielding first baseman, so he'll need several injuries on the major-league team to get a chance.