This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article: 1-1, -0.26 RW Bucks
Season: 89-97-7, -17.49 RW Bucks
We've got a full slate as far as the postseason is concerned, with four Friday games spanning the entirety of the day on tap. I'll dive in with a total of six wagers that I think are viable over the four contests.
All odds cited are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros 2:07pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Lucas Giolito vs. Framber Valdez
The Pick: White Sox Over 1.5 runs – first 5 innings (-135) for 2 RW Bucks
Secondary Pick: White Sox first 5 innings moneyline (+105) for 1 RW Buck
The White Sox were a dangerous team against left-handed pitching on the road over the last month of the season, posting a .319 average, .880 OPS, .376 wOBA and 141 wRC+ in that split. Valdez was just ok versus the White Sox this season, pitching to a 4.05 ERA and giving up 13 hits, including three homers over 13.1 innings. Meanwhile, Giolito finished the campaign in much better fashion than he started it, posting a 2.65 ERA, .205 BAA and .263 wOBA in the second half of the season. Houston was a dangerous opponent for visiting righties in the last month of the season, but Giolito has held current Houston bats to a collective .140/.177/.281 slash line in 93 career encounters.
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers 4:37pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton vs. Corbin Burnes
The Pick: Atlanta Over 1.5 runs – first 5 innings (+100) for 1 RW Buck
Burnes has gotten tagged by current Atlanta bats for four home runs in 41 career encounters, and his ERA was nearly a full run higher at home (2.85) than on the road (1.94). Naturally, the former number is still impressive, but Burnes did yield either three or four earned runs in three of his last four home starts of the regular season, while Atlanta checks in having posted a .272 average and .341 wOBA versus right-handed pitching on the road in the last month of the campaign.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays 7:02pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. Shane Baz
The Pick: Sale Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+120) for 2 RW Bucks
Secondary Pick: Sale Over 0.5 Home Runs Allowed (-120) for 1 RW Buck
Sale pitched to a 4.61 ERA, .269 BAA and .342 wOBA on the road this season, and he allowed 16 hits in just 9.2 innings against the Rays across two starts versus Tampa Bay this season. Current Rays bats own a collective .272/.325/.414 slash line with four homers in 119 career encounters with Sale as well, and the Rays decimated southpaws at home over the last month of the season for a .326 average, .973 OPS and .403 wOBA, including nine homers, across a sample of 162 plate appearances.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants 9:37pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler vs. Logan Webb
The Pick: Buehler vs. Webb- Fewest Hits Allowed: Webb (-125) for 1 RW Buck
The Dodgers posted an anemic .201/.275/.321 slash line and MLB-worst .264 wOBA and -18.1 wRAA against right-handed pitching on the road in the last month of the season. Webb faced L.A. on three occasions this season and allowed just seven hits over 16 innings, and he gave up 55 hits in 73.1 home frames overall. Meanwhile, Buehler was a tad more hittable against the Giants – he gave up 27 hits across 37.1 innings to San Fran this season – and the Giants made plenty of contact off righties at home (19.6 percent strikeout rate) over the last month of the regular season while also posting a .338 wOBA in that split.