This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
13 games make up our main slate Friday, and only games in Baltimore and Texas appear to have potential weather issues as of late Thursday evening.
Pitching
James Paxton ($10,300) leads the way, and his form is well worth paying for despite him having a challenging matchup. He has a 32:4 K:BB over his last three starts, going for at least 22.6 DKP in each outing. The Twins fair well against lefties, ranking seventh with a .351 wOBA while striking out at a moderate 23.9 percent clip. Maybe that's enough risk to not target Paxton for cash lineups, but his form is as sure as they come.
Clayton Kershaw ($10,000) looks like he'll be a popular choice to pivot from Paxton in a plus matchup. San Diego is returning home from a seven-game East Coast trip and has just a .299 wOBA, 86 wRC+ and 26.5 percent strikeout rate. Kershaw has only allowed five earned runs in 20 frames and has increased his strikeouts in each outing.
Chris Sale ($9,900) vs. CWS, Tyler Glasnow ($9,600) at Baltimore, Matthew Boyd ($9,300) vs. Kansas City and Mike Minor ($9,000) vs. Toronto round out the upper-tier arms. . The Blue Jays and Royals both rank 24th or lower against lefties, and the O's 21st against righties in wOBA, seemingly leaving Sale and his modest resurgence as the odd man out against Chicago's 13th ranked offense against lefties.
Sonny Gray ($8,200) figures to be a popular second option against a Giants offense that has a league-low .273 wOBA against righties. Gray's strikeout rate is up, 10.92 per nine innings against 8.49 from a year ago, and he's provided at least 14.3 DraftKing points (DKP) in every outing since his first start despite being winless. Shane Bieber ($8,000) is a viable option against a fading Mariners offense that has scored one run or none in three of their last four games, while Jerad Eickhoff ($7,400) has provided 14.9 or more DKP in his last three outings and gets a slumping Nats offense that has been held to three runs or less in four straight. Boston bats are awakening, so I'm personally staying far clear of Reynaldo Lopez ($7,000). His three-game surge has come against the Royals and White Sox (twice).
Finally, the Braves fan in me needs to remind readers that Friday is a potential payback day for Jose Urena ($6,400) for last season's beaning of Ronald Acuna. It's expected that Kevin Gausman ($8,400) may see his outing shortened as some form of retaliation.
Key Value/Chalk
Coors Field is on the docket, and the Rockies are facing a lefty, so it's all systems go on Colorado bats. Nolan Arenado ($5,500) continues to post unreal lines against southpaws (.497 wOBA, .469 ISO), while Trevor Story ($5,600) hasn't found his power stroke in this instance (.427 wOBA, .152 ISO). Daniel Murphy ($4,600) seems overpriced, while Ian Desmond ($3,800, .273 ISO) may be the best value option.
I'm not buying the aforementioned Lopez's surge given the opponents. He brings to the table a .486 wOBA at home to lefties, and Boston has no shortage of left-handed bats. Andrew Benintendi ($4,300, .336 wOBA, .163 ISO) is laboring but the right cash game play, while Mitch Moreland ($4,300, .362 wOBA, .390 ISO) is the upside play. Rafael Devers ($4,200) can't find any semblance of power (.081 ISO) but still has a 125 wRC+.
Some other struggling arms to target bats against include Pirates vs. Oakland's Brett Anderson ($5,800), Rays vs. Baltimore's Dan Straily ($5,500) and Phillies vs. Washington's Jeremy Hellickson ($6,200). Anderson has been tough on lefties, but Pittsburgh's best options this season have been Josh Bell ($4,900) and Melky Cabrera ($3,900). Straily is getting crushed by same-handed bats, allowing a .456 wOBA, putting Tommy Pham ($5,000) at the top of the Tampa list, with Avisail Garcia ($4,300) being slightly less appealing. Hellickson is being peppered by opposite-handed bats, allowing a .460 wOBA. The Phillies top options are all right-handed, however, so this may be a time to sneak in Bryce Harper ($4,600) at a $800 discount from his last outing, as he's 0-for-10 in his last three games.
The final place I'd look, weather permitting, is Texas. This game has a total of 9.5 despite Mike Minor's resurgence, which suggests we're expecting the Rangers to swing well. Blue Jays's starter Trent Thornton ($6,600) is allowing a .392 wOBA to lefties, making Joey Gallo ($5,500), Shin-Soo Choo ($4,900), Danny Santana ($4,700) and Nomar Mazara ($4,500) all viable options.
Stacks
Diamondbacks vs. Tyler Anderson ($6,300)
Eduardo Escobar (3B/SS - $5,500), Ketel Marte (2B/OF - $5,400), Adam Jones (OF - $4,900)
Prices are incredibly high, but rightfully so. We've got a plus-plus matchup of left-handed mashers playing in the most hitter-friendly park in Coors Field. Jones' .369 wOBA against lefties is the lowest of the three suggestions here, while Escobar's 19.6 percent strikeout rate is the highest of the three. Balls in play against Anderson's 6.09 xFIP and 37.5 percent homer-to-fly ball rate at home set up the Diamondbacks for a potentially huge night. There doesn't appear to be a bad bat here, even outside the above three.
Braves vs. Jose Urena (Marlins)
Freddie Freeman (1B - $5,100), Nick Markakis (OF - $4,200), Ender Inciarte (OF - $3,700)
Maybe the fan in me is making too much of this matchup with Urena, and maybe I'm right and he won't see many innings for a variety of reasons. But following a lackluster showing Thursday, I expect the Braves' bats to be dialed in here. This stack is largely BvP based, with a little extra motivation sprinkled in. All three of these lefty bats have faced Urena 20-plus times, all three are hitting .318 or better, and Inciarte and Freeman have OPSs of 1.031 and 1.400, respectively. Inciarte has been awful at the plate this year but offers a low-risk play with potential, while Freeman and Markakis both carry wOBAs of at least .376.
Reds vs. Tyler Beede (Giants)
Jesse Winker (OF - $4,500), Joey Votto (1B - $4,000), Derek Dietrich (2B/OF - $4,100)
Beede hasn't proven he can get upper-tier bats out, posting a 8.22 ERA and 5.63 xFIP in San Francisco last season, paired with a 7.05 ERA and 5.85 xFIP at Triple-A. Winker is really the only option that jumps off the page, carrying a .369 wOBA and .310 ISO against righties. Dietrich's numbers are better (.370/.346) but also are far above his career norms. Votto has only two extra-base hits in his last 10 games. It's not a stack for the faint of heart, and it's a play clearly against Beede rather than in favor of the Reds' offense. Maybe pair this with Reynaldo Lopez on the bump for a serious GPP dart throw?
