This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The second round of the U.S. Open begins Wednesday from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City. A pair of former U.S. Open finalists could have mixed results against French opponents Wednesday, while an American crowd favorite will look to keep rolling.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Picks: Upset Alert
Clara Burel (+350) vs. Victoria Azarenka
Burel will be playing with house money in this match, as she was down 6-0, 3-0 to Sloane Stephens on Arthur Ashe Stadium in the first round before coming back to win 0-6, 7-5, 7-5 as the American tightened up. The 56th-ranked Frenchwoman has had some impressive hard-court results in the past year, winning a title on the surface in December, taking out Jessica Pegula at the Australian Open this year and pushing Coco Gauff to a third-set tiebreak in Indian Wells. Azarenka's one of the most decorated hard-court players in the game and is still a force to be reckoned with at age 35, but she had to retire at the Canadian Open a couple weeks ago and got down a set in the first round here against 146th-ranked Yuliia Starodubtseva, so the No. 20 seed has looked vulnerable recently and may not be at full strength.
Roberto Carballes Baena (+230) vs. Juncheng Shang
Shang is a talented young player with top-10 potential down the line, but the 19-year-old lefty hasn't proven that he has the fitness to handle the grueling nature of multiple best-of-five set matches required to go deep in a Grand Slam. He retired in the third round of the Australian Open this year, and Shang's last two losses heading into the U.S. Open came via another retirement and a walkover, suggesting he may be less than 100 percent physically. After spending 3:34 on court in his 6-4, 3-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 first-round thriller against No. 27 seed Alexander Bublik, Shang will have to put his fitness to the test against Carballes Baena, whose bread and butter is long, grinding baseline rallies. Carballes Baena actually has a 17-spot edge in the rankings, and while Shang has the far higher ceiling, the Spanish underdog is a sensible upset pick given the circumstances.
Honorable Mention
Taylor Townsend (+200) vs. Paula Badosa
U.S. Open Odds: Lock It In
Ben Shelton (-330) vs. Roberto Bautista Agut
Bautista Agut's a former top-10 player, but the 36-year-old Spaniard is a few years removed from his glory days, as his first-round win over 90th-ranked Luca Nardi improved RBA to just 5-8 on hard courts in 2024. Conversely, Shelton plays his best tennis on this surface and is as good as he has ever been. The big-serving American currently boasts a career-high ranking of No. 13, and Shelton is 19-11 on hard courts this year, not to mention the fact that he reached the semifinals here last year. Shelton's at his best when he's feeding off the crowd's energy, and he's likely to hit Bautista Agut off the court Wednesday, much to the spectators' delight.
Donna Vekic (-380) vs. Greet Minnen
You can count on one hand the players that have had more success in big tournaments than Vekic the past couple months, as she reached the semifinals at Wimbledon and claimed the silver medal at the Olympics. The big-hitting Croatian is no slouch on hard courts, either, having previously made two Grand Slam quarterfinals on this surface. Vekic's 6-4, 6-4 first-round win over qualifier Kimberly Birrell was relatively straightforward, and we're likely to see more of the same from the world No. 24 in the second round against the 70th-ranked Minnen, who is 22-26 in 2024 and hasn't beaten a top-30 opponent in over two years, losing her last nine such matches.
Honorable Mention
Alexei Popyrin (-380) vs. Pedro Martinez
U.S. Open Predictions: Value Bets
Francisco Cerundolo (+100) vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry
These two Argentinian compatriots are ranked only four spots apart, but they have a significant disparity in hard-court accolades. Cerundolo made a Masters 1000 semifinal on this surface at the 2022 Miami Open, and this is the fourth consecutive hard-court Grand Slam in which he won his first-round match. His .448 career hard-court win rate leaves a lot to be desired, but Cerundolo's forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court in this match and could prove to be the difference against Etcheverry, who has just a .381 career hard-court winning percentage and has been past the second round of a Masters 1000 or Grand Slam event on hard courts just once in his career.
Casper Ruud (-165) vs. Gael Monfils
Monfils beat Carlos Alcaraz in Cincinnati leading up to the U.S. Open in what the Spanish superstar called the worst match of his life, so the nearly 38-year-old Frenchman is still capable of turning back the clock, but he doesn't quite have the stamina to play his highly entertaining scrambling style effectively in best-of-five set tennis anymore, which has contributed to Monfils getting past the second round at only three Grand Slams since the 2020 Australian Open, and past the third round just once over that span. Overall, he's just 21-18 on the year and 13-10 on hard courts, a far cry from Ruud's 45-14 overall record and 20-6 mark on this surface. Ruud narrowly won 3-6, 7-6 (3), 6-4 when these two met on the hard courts of Indian Wells earlier this year, but the No. 8 seed should have an easier time in a best-of-five set rematch against the 45th-ranked Monfils.
Honorable Mention
Diane Parry (-110) vs. Yafan Wang
