The fourth round of the Australian Open continues Monday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia, with the action starting Sunday night in the United States. Novak Djokovic has already advanced to the quarterfinals via walkover, but there are three more ATP matches and four WTA matches on the docket. A pair of American men will try to use their hard-court skills effectively against players that prefer other surfaces, while an all-American women's match could produce an upset.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Madison Keys (+152) vs. Jessica Pegula
Keys has won 10 consecutive Australian Open matches, and the defending champion won't be short on confidence despite being ranked three spots below her sixth-ranked American compatriot Pegula. Keys can be more sporadic but has more power off the ground, and she holds a 2-1 career head-to-head edge over Pegula, including a straight-sets win at the 2023 U.S. Open in their only previous Grand Slam encounter. Pegula has never been past the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, while Keys has been to at least the semifinals here on three occasions. Neither has dropped a set en route to the Round of 16.
Honorable Mention
Elise Mertens (+398) vs. Elena Rybakina
Australian Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Amanda Anisimova (-565) vs. Xinyu Wang
Anisimova reached the final of each of the last two Grand Slam events in 2025 and is making another deep run here, having dropped exactly five games in each of her first three matches while overwhelming opponents with power off the ground. Wang has notched back-to-back wins over top-25 seeds, but the world No. 46 is still only 5-5 in her career at the Australian Open and hasn't advanced past the Round of 16 in 18 previous Grand Slam main draw appearances. The fourth-seeded Anisimova should continue to take care of business in this first career meeting between this pair of 24-year-olds.
Jannik Sinner (-3900) vs. Luciano Darderi
Sinner's lucky to still be in this tournament, as a conveniently timed roof closure likely saved him in the third round against Eliot Spizzirri just as cramps were beginning to severely hamper the world No. 2's game. With less oppressive temperatures expected Monday, look for Sinner to get back to his usual level of dominance against his Italian compatriot Darderi, who will just be happy to be here given his dreadful 9-29 career hard-court record prior to this tournament. Sinner is 17-0 against fellow Italians in ATP Tour matches and has won 17 consecutive matches at the Australian Open.
Honorable Mention
Iga Swiatek (-3900) vs. Maddison Inglis
Australian Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Taylor Fritz (-148) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
The contrast of styles in this matchup makes it venue-dependent, and while this will be their first time meeting on outdoor hard courts, Fritz has the edge based on their head-to-head and game styles, even though the American is ranked four spots below Musetti. They have split six previous encounters, with Fritz notching two straight-sets victories on indoor hard courts, Musetti winning twice in straight sets on clay and each winning once on the grass of Wimbledon. The 6-foot-5 Fritz is better in extended rallies than most serve-reliant tall players, but he's still outclassed in that regard by the superior variety and movement of the 6-foot-1 Musetti. Fast hard-court conditions favor Fritz's ability to finish points quickly with his serve, and while Musetti is adept at blocking big serves back effectively, Fritz should continue to pile up aces after smashing 69 through three rounds. Musetti has been broken 11 times in three matches here, and if Fritz can consistently work his way into the Italian's service games, it will be tough for Musetti to deal with that pressure given Fritz's ability to serve his way to multiple quick holds each set.
Honorable Mention
Ben Shelton (-171) vs. Casper Ruud
