It's the final large slate of DFS tennis action for the Australian Open as the third round concludes with Friday night's action. Things are still in high gear on DraftKings, with the featured $15 Line Painter contest and $10k to first. Let's break down some of my top plays.
Check out our DFS Optimizer for full projections.
Upper Tier
Novak Djokovic ($10,600) over Botic van de Zandschulp
Last night's winning lineup didn't feature anyone in the $10k+ range, so I'll limit my expensive selection to Djokovic. I think he'll be fairly contrarian because not only is it difficult to find spend up options work without a major longshot, van de Zanschulp beat him in Indian Wells last year. Djokovic won't be caught off guard this time around, and the mindset is always different in best-of-five and extreme heat. Djokovic hasn't played a set closer than 6-3 through two rounds, either.
Karen Khachanov ($9,500) over Luciano Darderi
This will be the first meeting between these two, and I trust the veteran and former Aussie Open semi-finalist. Darderi has done a good job of getting his ranking up to be seeded, but he has a sub .500 grand slam record is more of a clay court specialist that has had an easy draw to get here. Khachanov made quick work Nishesh Basavareddy after getting past Alex Michelsen in the first round.
Middle Tier
Ben Shelton ($9,400) over Valentin Vacherot
The American men have shown up so far with six players still in the draw, and I expect Shelton to keep the momentum rolling for the U.S. He's yet to lose a set and dropped just seven games in the second round. Vacherot has had an easy draw and this is just his second main draw appearance.
Linda Noskova ($8,400) over Xinyu Wang
These two met last summer with Noskova picking up a fairly easy 4&1 victory. She made the quarters here two years ago and is playing some of her best tennis, recently losing 7-5 in the third to Mirra Andreeva. This has traditionally been Wang's worst major (2-5 before this year), and this should be relatively cheap exposure to a straight-sets win.
Lower Tier
Tomas Machac ($6,600) over Lorenzo Musetti
We'll have to find at least one sub $7k option to fit in our builds, and the sportsbooks are giving Machac a 38 percent chance to win this match. I think it's closer to 50/50 as Machac won their lone meeting 3&2 in 2024. Machac has had a tough draw with wins over Grigor Dimitrov and an in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas, while Musetti entered the tournament with the Aussie Open being his only grand slam with a losing record.
Marin Cilic ($5,900) over Casper Ruud
Scrolling through the viable upset options, I don't feel comfortable going with anyone priced $5,000 or below. 37-year-old Cilic looks like a quality candidate as he's healthy and playing well. He's lost just 15 games thus far and that includes a routine win over Denis Shapovalov. Ruud also hasn't made it past the third round here since 2021.
