This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The French Open women's final is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. in Paris, which will be 9:00 a.m. on the East coast in the United States. The odds for this final are quite lopsided, as the favorite has an extensive track record of success on clay and in championship matches, while the underdog is in uncharted territory.
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All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities for the 2024 French Open women's final.
French Open Odds: Swiatek vs. Paolini
Iga Swiatek (-1400) vs. Jasmine Paolini (+900)
Swiatek is the substantial favorite for obvious reasons. The world No. 1 is going for her fourth French Open title in five years. She has been nearly unbeatable on clay, with a 58-4 record on the surface since 2022. Swiatek also plays her best when a title is on the line, as she has an outstanding 21-4 record in finals, including 4-0 in Grand Slams. Since saving a match point against Naomi Osaka in the second round, Swiatek has dropped only 14 games over the four subsequent matches. The 5-foot-4 Paolini produces impressive power for her size, but she doesn't belong to the tall, big-serving and big-hitting archetype that gives Swiatek the most problems.
Paolini won her first career WTA 1000 title in Dubai in February, and she didn't have a Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance in 17 tries prior to this tournament, so the 15th-ranked Italian is enjoying the most successful and confident stretch of her career. She knocked off No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina in three sets in the quarterfinals and handled the moment better than 17-year-old sensation Mirra Andreeva in the semis, pulling away for a 6-3, 6-1 win. While Paolini has been surging recently, the 28-year-old may never come this close to a major title again given her pedestrian resume prior to 2024.
Swiatek won both of their previous meetings in blowout fashion, dropping just six total games across four sets, but a silver lining for Paolini is that they haven't played since the 2022 US Open. Even keeping this match close will be a challenge for the underdog, but if Paolini can keep pace for a while and maintain scoreboard pressure, that would at least create the opportunity for the pressure to get to the heavily favored Swiatek as she chases history. The Polish star has a chance to become just the fourth woman with at least four French Open titles, joining Chris Evert (seven), Steffi Graf (six) and Justine Henin (four). Swiatek would be the youngest woman ever to accomplish that feat, as she celebrated her 23rd birthday during this tournament.
French Open prediction: Swiatek def. Paolini 6-1, 7-5
