This article is part of our Football Predictions series.
Arsenal look to keep their slim title hopes alive Saturday when they host Brentford in a London derby.
Arsenal had one of their most famous nights at the Emirates on Tuesday, beating Real Madrid 3-0 with Declan Rice scoring two of the most magical free kicks you'll ever see (editor's note: BJ is an Arsenal supporter). The Gunners title hopes are incredibly slim, so it's important that they pick up three points every match the rest of the season.
Brentford are battling to finish inside the top half of the Premier League table. They held Chelsea to a 0-0 draw last Sunday and now only trail Bournemouth by three points for 10th place. The Bees have been one of the better teams against the top six over the years and have given the Gunners lots of issues. Thomas Frank's side will be set up really well to frustrate Arsenal.
Premier League odds can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
Premier League Best Bets for Arsenal vs. Brentford
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Arsenal have struggled breaking down low blocks for most of the season, but now that Mikel Merino has been playing as a false nine, they've been improving.
Arsenal don't have an aerial threat in the box, and when they couldn't play through teams, they struggled to find ways through some of the most compact structures.
That's exactly how Brentford are going to play in this match. In the previous meeting, Brentford played an extremely compact 4-4-2 low block. That being the case, Brentford's defensive numbers are still in the bottom half of the league.
Brentford are also near the bottom at defending crosses, so Merino has a great chance to score his fourth goal in five matches.
I like the value on him to find the back of the net at +125.
Premier League anytime goalscorer bets are available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
Betting on Player Shots
Bukayo Saka is without a doubt Arsenal's best player, but he's still returning from injury and I'd be shocked if played a full 90 minutes. He played a little over 70 minutes against Real Madrid, 45 against Everton and 23 against Fulham.
Saka isn't the same profile of someone like Mohamed Salah, as he's more of a creator than a high-volume shooter. For the season, Saka's averaging 3.2 shots per 90 minutes, but in the three matches since he's returned from injury, he's only taken three total shots. His shot total is way too high in this match.
Even though they have a 3-0 advantage, it's likely Mikel Arteta prioritizes their Champions League match over this one on Saturday.
I like the value on Saka to have under 3.5 shots at -150.
Betting on Team Total Goals
Arsenal are one of the best defensive teams in the world because of their ability to defend in transition.
The Gunners are only allowing 0.79 non-penalty expected goals and also the fewest amount of expected goals from counter attacks. They held Real Madrid to 0.5 expected goals, Everton to 0.3 non-penalty expected goals and Chelsea to just 0.4 expected goals in recent matches.
Their rest defense is a low-risk approach from Arteta, but it also makes sure that they don't get exposed on the counter. Brentford found that out in the previous meeting when they were held to just five shots at 0.3 expected goals.
I think the Bees are going to find it difficult to create any high quality chances in this match, and I like the value on their team total under 0.5 at +125.
Arsenal vs. Brentford Betting Picks
- Mikel Merino Anytime Goalscorer (+125)
- Bukayo Saka Under 3.5 shots (-150)
- Brentford Team Total Under 0.5 (+125)
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
