This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It's three weeks into the Premier League season, and Cristiano Ronaldo (+450) has the second-best odds to finish with the most goals, trailing only Romelu Lukaku (+300). Yes, the addition of these two players likely destroys your pre-season most goal bets. Bruno Fernandes (+2000) is unlikely to get the same opportunities since he probably won't be on penalties and will be on fewer set pieces. Harry Kane (+600) had a slow start to the season and even Mohamed Salah (+450) has kind of been forgotten about.
Lukaku and Ronaldo are the shiny new toys, but are they worth betting? Probably not. Lukaku is favored and could easily hit 25 goals as the Chelsea front man, but there's still a chance he doesn't take penalties when Jorginho is in the squad. That could take away anywhere between five and 10 goals for Lukaku, while there's no value in betting Ronaldo unless Man United completely change the way they play and focus everything into getting the ball to him.
I still kind of prefer Salah because he already has two goals and is guaranteed to be on penalties for Liverpool. There are also no playing time concerns for Salah, who will almost always be in the starting XI when healthy. If you want to completely fade Ronaldo, you can get under 20.5 goals at even odds. This bet could blow up in my face, but the Premier League is not La Liga or Serie A. Five teams scored more than 73 goals in Serie A last season compared to just one in the Premier League (Manchester City). Braces and hat tricks won't be available to Ronaldo in every game, and there's a chance Fernandes will steal some set pieces.
Only two players scored more than 18 goals in the Premier League last season (Kane and Salah) and while Ronaldo is one of the best goal-scorers ever, he's older and already missed three matches. Plus, Man United are deep enough that Ronaldo can be rested in league play or Champions League, however Ole Gunnar Solskjaer sees fit.
Team Futures
Before the season, I suggested Liverpool at +500 (now +450) or Manchester United at +750 (now +525). I also said there was no reason to take Manchester City at -165 to win it all and they are now +125. So far, so good.
Maybe the biggest surprise is that Tottenham are top of the table by themselves, but winning 1-0 in all three matches doesn't scream title. It's how Nuno Espirito Santo wants to win, and as seen at Wolves, that won't be enough to get them over the top. They have the fifth-best odds to win the league at +2800.
Otherwise, Everton have played better than expected, but some of that can be due to schedule. I still like Leicester City at +150 to finish as the best team outside of the big six. That number hasn't moved, mainly because of West Ham and Everton, both at +350.
For more of a speculative play based on early performances, Wolves at +330 to finish top 10 is interesting. Remember, it's only been three matches and Wolves have played Leicester City, Tottenham and Manchester United. While they lost all three 1-0, they've looked good in all aspects outside of goal scoring. That's important, but sooner or later Raul Jimenez will start scoring again. Wolves also had more expected goals in each of their matches, which is relevant. They have a nice set of matches up next, and it wouldn't be surprising if they were in a much better position at the next international break.
The other bet I like is Norwich City at +250 to finish bottom of the table. It's not nice to bet a team to finish last, and they've had a tough schedule to start, but I still don't think they've replaced the ability of Emiliano Buendia in the side, and depth remains an issue in the midfield and attack. Adding Brandon Williams and Ozan Kabak to the back line is cool, but I'm not sure they're built to play for 1-0 wins. They love to attack and that'll always leave them open in the back.
