Xfinity 500 Preview: Prelude to the Championship

This week we visit the circuit's shortest track to bring to an end the Round of 8 in the Chase for the Cup. The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Martinsville Speedway, nestled in the foothills of Southern Virginia. After visiting superspeedways and intermediate ovals for most of the Chase, we swing to the other extreme for this week's Xfinity 500. With the big shift in racing style, drivers had better be prepared for the surprises that the bullring at Martinsville will provide. 

Martinsville Speedway is best described as a "paperclip"-shaped track dye to its twin 800-foot straightaways capped with hairpin corners banked at a modest 12 degrees. Racing at Martinsville requires mental toughness, physical stamina and razor-sharp concentration, and that doesn't even include the durability of your equipment, which takes a brutal pounding on this abusive small oval. Survival will be the name of the game this weekend as the playoff drivers take to the short track in Southern Virginia. Martinsville Speedway demands the ultimate performance from both the driver and the car, so it is fitting that this bullring is one of the pivotal races that crowns NASCAR's champion. 

Some of the top contenders for this season's championship are excellent short-track drivers, so we should see some real fireworks at the front of the pack this Sunday afternoon. For those playoff drivers still vying for a spot in the Championship Round of the Chase, the stakes will be very high in this 500-lap brawl. Among those are the teams of Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and William Byron. All four have been improving dramatically at the Virginia short track in recent seasons, with Elliott, Byron and Logano combining to win three Martinsville races since 2018. This group of championship hopeful drivers are definitely in the right place at the right time this weekend to possibly secure the win that secures their advancement.

Let's take a quick look at the recent history of Martinsville Speedway. We have a select group of drivers who rise above the field on short tracks, and we expect to see them running up front on Sunday. As the loop stats will illustrate, there's a group of usual suspects we expect to dominate short-track racing at the top, including Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. This group of drivers has combined to win 9 races at this small oval, so expect these guys to be among the contenders to win the Xfinity 500. The table below shows the loop stats for the last 35 races at Martinsville Speedway.

A lot has happened since the last race at Martinsville Speedway in April of this year. Parity has prevailed, and we've had 15 different drivers win since that William Byron victory. Tyler Reddick orchestrated a couple road-course wins during the Summer. Daniel Suarez captured his first-career Cup Series victory at Sonoma Raceway in June. Bubba Wallace pulled his surprising, upset victory at Kansas Speedway in September. Chris Buescher nabbed an equally surprising win one week later at Bristol. Kyle Larson was shockingly eliminated from the Chase field after the Round of 12 at the Charlotte Roval. Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe are trying desperately to stay alive in the battle for the championship, so they'll be racing for the win this Sunday at Martinsville to get the ticket to Phoenix. All-in-all, it's been a wild season of NASCAR racing since the last time we visited the historic Virginia short track. 

If this week's race plays out like the earlier installment at Martinsville, we should be in for some similar action. Hendrick Motorsports star William Byron would dominate almost the entirety of the race and lead 212 laps, but Joey Logano would rise late and give Byron a good challenge for the win. A late caution would setup NASCAR overtime and a two-lap shootout for the win. There's good reason to believe we could see a similar scenario develop in Sunday's Xfinity 500. There were just five lead changes in April's Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400. Part of that was due to the reduced distance (400 vs. 500 laps) and part was due to the Next-Gen car, which made passing on this challenging short track difficult. Those who qualify well again this weekend could be the drivers to watch closely as we could see a repeat of dominance at the front. We'll examine the short track specialists who thrive on small ovals like Martinsville and give you the tips that will help you win your fantasy league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star comes to Martinsville already locked into the championship round of the Chase but will be looking to sharpen his performance prior to the finale in Phoenix. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has been fast in recent Martinsville Speedway outings. He has one win, one runner-up finish and eight Top 10s at the Virginia short track since the 2018 season. Most importantly, Logano finished runner-up in the Next-Gen car during April's Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400. That effort has boosted his career Top-5 rate at this short track to a very strong 33 percent. Logano has been inconsistent on the short tracks this season, but his recent outing just prior to the playoffs at Richmond saw him lead 222 laps and finish sixth in the Federated Auto Parts 400. He'll be a strong fantasy racing choice in Sunday's 500-lap battle.

Chase Elliott – We've had a lot of parity on short tracks this season, but Elliott has clearly been the class of the field to this point. He's had some recent struggles on intermediate ovals but should be happy to head back to a bullring this week. The Hendrick Motorsports star has grabbed one win, two runner-up finishes and four Top 5s this season in the Next-Gen car. Most of those accomplishments have happened in the second half of the year. In addition, Elliott has led 322 laps on the small ovals in 2022. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is a one-time Martinsville winner and won the pole position here in April, leading 185 laps before finishing 10th. You can never count Elliott out of any race at Martinsville Speedway. 

William Byron – Byron is still alive in terms of making the Championship 4, and that's great news coming to Virginia for this round of the playoffs. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster was our April victor at Martinsville Speedway after a dominant performance in the Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400. Byron now rides a three-race Martinsville Top-5 streak into this Sunday's Xfinity 500. That's a big contrast from his earlier career numbers at this tough oval. Byron has been a 43 percent Top-5 finisher on the short tracks this season, so that improvement has been noticeable over his earlier starts on the NASCAR bullrings. It works out to a solid 9.9 average finish in 2022 on these size tracks. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet finished a brilliant third at the Bristol short track in mid-September, and we expect him to stay hot in the Xfinity 500. 

Denny Hamlin – Coming to Martinsville, Hamlin's point standing has him in precarious position for advancing to the Championship 4. For that reason alone, he'd love to visit victory lane here again and punch his ticket automatically to the finale. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has five career wins at Martinsville Speedway, and has led close to 2,000 career laps at the half-mile oval. A win here would lock him into the championship round at Phoenix the following week. The No. 11 Toyota team has a short track-win this season in the new car (at Richmond back in the spring) and has cracked the Top 10 at a strong 57 percent rate. Hamlin is visiting one of his favorite short tracks at a very crucial time during the playoffs.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Larson – Larson has never won at the Martinsville short track, but he's been inching closer to fantasy relevance at this oval in recent visits. Larson has one pole position, 77 laps led and two Top-10 finishes in his last four starts at Martinsville Speedway. Coming off the momentum of his big win at Homestead this past week, Larson will look to continue being the playoff spoiler in Sunday's Xfinity 500. The Hendrick Motorsports star has been pretty consistent this season on the short tracks, recording has one pole and three Top 10s on the small ovals in the Next-Gen car. His most recent outing saw him lead 34 laps and a finish fifth at Bristol in mid-September. Larson won't likely take the grandfather clock trophy this Sunday, but he'll be racing among the leaders in this 500-lap battle.

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been consistent on the short tracks this season. His one win, one runner-up finish, four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes on the bullring circuit rank among the elite in the Cup Series, with his average finish checking in at a very strong 9.0. Bell has just five starts in NASCAR's top division at the Martinsville oval, with just one Top-10 finish to his credit, but this young driver comes to Southern Virginia fighting for his championship survival this weekend. Bell currently sits seventh in the standings, 33 points behind the cutoff to make the Phoenix finale. He knows he needs some type of a Hail Mary effort in the Xfinity 500, so we expect Bell to pull out all the stops this Sunday afternoon.

Ross Chastain – The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has responded to the pressure of the playoffs. Chastain has dialed up his performance after some late-summer struggles, nabbing consecutive runner-up finishes in the last two events and three Top 5s in the last four races. Chastain sits in pretty good points position coming into this weekend, sitting second overall, 19 points ahead of the cutoff to make the Championship 4. The Trackhouse Racing veteran can't let up now and he knows it. Chastain has been incredible this season on the short-track circuit with three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes, good for a strong 8.7 average finish. That span includes his fifth-place finish at Martinsville in April. That experience will pay big dividends for this driver and team in the Xfinity 500. 

Ryan Blaney – Blaney's back is against the wall. After three straight poor finishes, he limps into this prelude to the championship sitting sixth in the point standings and needing a big performance in the Xfinity 500. Fortunately, Blaney has the ability to rebound at this small oval, as he's proven in recent seasons. He has one pole position, two runner-up finishes and seven Top-10 finishes (a 54 percent rate) at Martinsville Speedway. Blaney pedaled the No. 12 Ford to 5 laps led and a strong fourth-place finish in April's Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 at Martinsville. If any of the drivers ahead of Blaney stumble Sunday, he'll want to be in good position to seize that opportunity to advance to Phoenix and race for the championship.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Martinsville & solid upside

Kyle Busch – Busch rides a modest three-race Top-10 streak into Martinsville Speedway this weekend. Although relations with his Joe Gibbs Racing overlords aren't great, the star driver seems intent on finishing this season strong. Short tracks in 2022 haven't been strong venues for the No. 18 team, ergo the sleepers list ranking, but they have been tracks of consistency for Busch. The veteran driver owns five Top 10s in the seven short-track events thus far and a respectable 12.1 average finish. Busch generally hasn't been in the running to win these races, but he's often a face among the Top 10. His two-career Martinsville victories and 62 percent Top-10 rate at this oval are major fantasy racing endorsements.

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran hasn't been a top short-track performer in 2022, but Truex does ride a modest two-race Top-10 streak into Southern Virginia this Sunday. Truex is a three-time victor at this historic short track, with all his wins coming since 2019. His Martinsville resume has improved dramatically of late, as he's led 1,016 laps at the track since the 2015 season. Truex has been eliminated from the playoffs but the veteran driver is looking to improve his team's performance ahead of the brief off-season. Top-10 finishes at Richmond and Loudon this season in the Next-Gen car are a good barometer of his 0potential for the Xfinity 500.

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been a bit inconsistent of late, but a Top-15 finisher the last three-straight events. He has an opportunity to turn it up a notch this weekend at Martinsville Speedway. The Roush Fenway Racing veteran has been razor sharp on the short tracks in 2022. Buescher won most recently at Bristol in September and has four Top 10s on the short tracks with this Next-Gen car, which works out to a strong 57 percent rate. His average finish comes in at an impressive 9.9, which suggests that when Buescher fails to crack the Top 10, he's not far outside. The driver of the No. 17 Ford doesn't have a big resume at Martinsville, but he's been a Top 15 guy in recent visits, finishing 13th, ninth and 15th in his last three trips to the track.

Chase Briscoe – His championship hopes are hanging by a thread. Briscoe comes to Southern Virginia sitting in eighth place in the Chase standings, 44 points back of the cutoff to get into the Championship 4 at Phoenix. It's pretty much a must-win scenario for Briscoe in the Xfinity 500, so expect him to pull out all the stops to make it happen. While Briscoe's chances of winning at Martinsville Speedway are remote, he should still challenge the Top 10 in this 500-lap short-track battle. He won at Phoenix earlier this season and has two Top-10 and six Top-15 finishes on the short tracks in 2022, good for a respectable 12.3 average finish. The most recent of Briscoe's three Cup starts at Martinsville netted a strong ninth-place finish in April of this year. Those notes will be indispensable for this driver and team Sunday afternoon.     

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger is one of the hottest drivers in the series right now, albeit on a part-time basis. The Kaulig Racing veteran is fresh off an impressive third-place finish at Homestead and now rides a six-race Top-10 streak into Martinsville Speedway this weekend. Allmendinger has made this streak on intermediate ovals, road circuits and even short tracks. The driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet has always liked the flat short track in Virginia and has seven-career Top 10s to illustrate this point. Allmendinger has even finished runner-up twice at the half-mile oval during his 16-season career. His last time out on a short track netted a strong seventh-place finish at Bristol in September. That's a good preview of what to expect for this driver and team Sunday afternoon.      

Austin Dillon – Dillon appears to be gathering steam as we head into the championship-crowning race. The RCR veteran has just two more chances to impress before the conclusion of the 2022 campaign. The good news is that Dillon rides a strong three-race Top-10 streak into Martinsville Speedway this weekend. The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet is coming off an impressive fourth-place finish at Homestead this past Sunday. Dillon has had sporadic success at Martinsville Speedway over the years, but the great news is that he earned a career-best finish at the track in April with a brilliant third-place finish in the Next-Gen car, one of two Top 10s this season on the short tracks for this driver and team. We're willing to bet Dillon isn't finished impressing just yet.      

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Erik Jones – Jones had been on quite a heater in recent weeks, but his poor finish at Homestead last week brought to an end a month-long stack of good finishes for the No. 43 team. Jones may find it difficult bouncing back into the Top 10 this week with the visit to Martinsville Speedway. Short tracks have been this driver and team's glaring weakness in 2022 with the new Next-Gen car. Jones has just one Top 10 in seven starts on the smaller ovals with an average finish of 20.9. Martinsville Speedway has been equally challenging for Jones over his career, with just one Top 10 in 11-career starts at the Southern Virginia track. His career average finish at Martinsville stands at an inflated 19.5, so it's best to keep Jones and the No. 43 Chevrolet team shelved this week. 

Austin Cindric – The Penske Racing rookie has been quite impressive on a number of different tracks this season. He nabbed the season-opening Daytona 500 victory and has carved up road circuits and intermediate ovals to good effect. However, Cindric's lone weakness this season has been short-track racing. The driver of the No. 2 Ford has no Top 10s on the small ovals in 2022 and a handful of finishes outside the Top 20. It all works out to a 19.4 average finish for the rookie on the bullring circuit. He's had limited success at Martinsville Speedway in the lower divisions of NASCAR, and that's noteworthy as well. Cindric has just really never dominated this place in his career. It's best to look for your fantasy racing help elsewhere this weekend.

Noah Gragson – The young driver will once again be in relief duty for the No. 48 team and Alex Bowman this weekend. This will be Gragson's fifth start in relief of Bowman for this team. While the young talent is tearing up the Xfinity Series in 2022, adjusting to the Next-Gen Cup car has been problematic for Gragson. In 17 starts this season, he has just one Top-10 finish and an average finish floating around 23.0. A lot of that experience has been in intermediate- and large-oval racing. Gragson has made only a couple short track starts in 2022, and that lack of experience with this new generation stock car is going to be a real challenge for him at Martinsville Speedway. Gragson has had success at this Virginia short track in the lower divisions of NASCAR, but racing this Cup car is such a departure from everything he knows, making him a high-risk fantasy racing selection for the Xfinity 500.

Michael McDowell – Short tracks have been a real bear for the veteran driver of the No. 34 Ford in 2022. McDowell has scuffled to zero Top-10 finishes and just one Top-15 on these small tracks this season, resulting in an average finish of 23.9. Martinsville Speedway has been equally disappointing for the Front Row Motorsports driver over his career. With just one Top 15 and many finishes outside the Top 25, McDowell sports a 29.4 average finish at Martinsville Speedway. In April, he pedaled to a subpar 25th-place finish, three laps behind the leaders. McDowell is a shaky fantasy racing play in this ninth race of the Chase for the Cup playoffs.