Weekly Preview: New Speedway in Music City

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series visits Nashville Superspeedway for the first time ever.  This oval is a moderately-banked 1.33-mile track that is concrete paved and features 14-degree banking in the turns.  The event is 300 laps, divided into three stages of 90 laps, 95 laps and 115 laps.  Top speeds are likely to be around 160 mph as the concrete surface provides high grip and a lot of potential for side-by-side racing.  The oval is somewhat reminiscent of the lower banked intermediate ovals on the circuit like Kansas Speedway and Kentucky Speedway, although modestly smaller in size than most NASCAR intermediate ovals.  From its opening in 2001 Nashville Superspeedway hosted Xfinity Series and Camping World Truck Series events until the track's closure in 2011.  The facility has not been a part of the NASCAR schedule for close to a decade and has never hosted a Cup Series event in its history until now.  There will be a lot of unknowns as we venture this weekend into the uncharted waters of Nashville Superspeedway. 

Since this is a completely new race, at a completely new track, we have no historical loop stats to examine this weekend.  That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage.  However, we're not completely without some numbers.  For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the statistics that our NASCAR Cup Series drivers have accumulated this season on the intermediate ovals.  It's the only real measure of which drivers tend to thrive on these style tracks.  The data will be fresh and recent statistics and should provide us with a good preview of who will hit the ground running at Nashville.  In the table below are the driver's standard stats at Homestead, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Kansas and Charlotte in the 2021 season, sorted by average finish.

This weekend NASCAR will make a little history.  For the first time ever, the Cup Series will compete on the concrete oval at Nashville Superspeedway.  For much of the last decade, this track has been inactive in supporting nationally touring racing series.  That will all change with Sunday's Ally 400.  There will be plenty to learn for both the drivers and the fans.  Many unknowns will be explored.  As usual, we'll be in data collecting mode in order to better prepare for the next race at Nashville.  Lesson's learned this weekend will be applied by both the teams and fantasy racing players alike in the near future.    

Coming into this weekend's 400-mile event we're going to rely a lot on current hot streaks and we're going to look with a critical eye at recent performance on intermediate ovals.  We believe the statistical table above and the 2021 stats at similar-sized tracks will be our greatest aides in evaluating drivers this weekend and projecting potential performance.  We'll give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games for the Ally 400 at Nashville. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star enters Nashville as the hottest driver in the Cup Series at the moment.  Larson has either won or finished runner-up in the last five points-paying events.  Further, he was the runaway winner in last weekend's All-Star Race at Texas.  He now comes to a new track where there will be several unknowns.  As far as we're aware, Larson has never recorded a hot lap at Nashville Superspeedway, unless it was in a simulator.  Still, the 1.333-mile tri-oval will seem like familiar territory to a driver and team that are clearly hitting on all cylinders at the moment.  Five of Larson's nine-career victories have come on similar size and configuration ovals.  It's a sure bet he'll be on his "A" game for this inaugural Ally 400. 

Chase Elliott – Elliott had a bit of a slow start to the season on the cookie-cutter tracks, but he's warmed up considerably in the last several weeks.  His last two starts at Kansas and Charlotte have yielded fifth- and second-place finishes and Elliott led 22 laps in the Coca-Cola 600.  All-Star weekend at Texas last Sunday saw the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet lead 12 laps and finish an impressive third-place.  Elliott has really turned a corner this season on the intermediate ovals.  Nashville Superspeedway will be a new challenge but have a familiar ring to it.  The concrete oval in Tennessee was an Xfinity and Truck Series staple prior to Elliott's racing career.  However, it's configuration is quite similar to many on the circuit.  Elliott is likely the biggest threat to Larson's potential dominance this Sunday. 

Kyle Busch – It's been a tough season for most of the Toyota teams, but Busch has seemed to rise above the struggles of his teammates and other drivers for this manufacturer.  Busch won at the similar intermediate oval at Kansas in May and he recently finished an impressive third place in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been catching some of the leftovers of the Chevy teams, but also just a tick off from winning more.  Busch really has been Toyota's biggest performer this season, and it should continue at Nashville.  Unlike the other top contenders, Busch has some experience racing at this oval.  He's a one-time Xfinity Series winner (2009) and two-time truck series winner (2010 and 2011) at Nashville Superspeedway.  Busch will be racing with the leaders in the Ally 400.

William Byron - The young driver's ascent to the top tier of Cup Series drivers was quite apparent in last weekend's All-Star Race.  Byron led a race-high 30 laps, won a stage and battled for the win, finishing seventh in the All-Star exhibition.  That performance coupled with his victory (Homestead) and five Top-10 finishes on the intermediate ovals in 2021 is reason for our optimism.  While this will be Byron's first experience racing on the concrete banks of Nashville Superspeedway, he seems well-positioned to have success.  He's led close to 150 laps on the cookie-cutter ovals this season, so he hasn't simply just been riding in line.  Byron's 21 laps led and Top-5 finish at Dover recently bodes well too.  Its concrete surface is steeper banked than Nashville, but has many similar characteristics such as the surface, grip and side-by-side racing action.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin hasn't had the luck to win, but he's had the speed to lead some laps (84) and to grab two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes on the cookie-cutter tracks this season.  He's been second fiddle to the drivers in the contenders list, but still strong enough to forge Top 5's and Top 10's on these style tracks.  Hamlin has been around long enough that he has some history racing at Nashville.  Between 2005 and 2008 he nabbed two Top-5 and five Top-10 Xfinity Series finishes at the oval along with 120 laps led.  That experience will be quite valuable in the Ally 400.  Considering Hamlin's recent performances at Charlotte and Texas, he seems pegged for a Top-10 effort in NASCAR's return to Nashville.         

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star hasn't been his usual dominant self on these intermediate ovals in 2021, but Truex has been consistent.  He's racked up four Top 10's in the five events to-date.  Truex will now set his sights on the oval at Nashville Superspeedway.  The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has similar experience at this oval to his teammate, Denny Hamlin.  He raced at the track from 2003 to 2005 and collected two pole positions, 145 laps led and two Top-5 finishes in five starts.  While Truex never won at the oval, he was very competitive in those early years.  The veteran driver has always raced well at the concrete oval in Dover for many years so that success should translate to his first Cup start on the concrete at Nashville.

Kevin Harvick – This hasn't been the dominant Harvick and SHR No. 4 team that we're used to in 2021, but he's still been good enough most weeks to collect Top 10's and challenge for Top 5's.  Last time out in the Coca-Cola 600 is a good example.  Harvick battled hard all evening at Charlotte and come away with a respectable 10th-place finish.  That's illustrative of his season of racing on these style ovals which has yielded a 9.4 average finish.  Harvick's ancient past shows some noteworthy success at the Nashville oval.  In just four starts between 2001 and 2010 he led 123 laps and grabbed two victories at Nashville Superspeedway.  In addition, in just one truck series start here in 2010, Harvick peddled to an impressive runner-up finish in the Nashville 200.  That experience will be valuable this weekend.   

Alex Bowman – Bowman has shown good speed and great skill this season in claiming two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes on the intermediate oval circuit.  Most recently he nabbed a strong fifth-place in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte and registered an impressive sixth-place finish in the All-Star Race at Texas.  Bowman will now set his sights on a first career start at Nashville Superspeedway.  His resume doesn't date back far enough to have had any Xfinity or truck series experience at the oval.  However, current performance would seem to indicate that a Top 10 performance is in order.  Bowman's big win at the concrete paved oval in Dover in May should not be overlooked either.  That performance on a similar racing surface is very noteworthy.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is coming off a mixed-bag of performances on 1.5-mile tracks to this point, but generally he's been pretty good.  Keselowski has a pair of Top-5 finishes and 152 laps led on these style tracks in 2021.  Most recently he peddled the No. 2 Ford to 6 laps led and an 11th-place finish at Charlotte.  It's been quite some time, but Keselowski has seen Nashville Superspeedway many times in the past.  With 10-career Xfinity Series starts, he's one of the more experienced drivers at this oval.  Two of those efforts yielded victories and seven of them Top-5 finishes (70-percent).  Those are some eye-popping results given they occurred between 2007 and 2011.  Keselowski likes this track, and we believe it will show in Sunday's Ally 400.

Tyler Reddick – The young RCR driver has been very consistent this season.  With eight Top-10 finishes so far, Reddick is poised to set career-best marks in Top 10's and likely his final points finish in 2021.  Three of his Top 10's this season have come on the cookie-cutter ovals for a respectable 13.2 average finish on these style tracks.  Nashville Superspeedway will be uncharted waters for the No. 8 Chevrolet team, but NASCAR will give the field some valuable practice and qualifying laps this weekend.  That will help Reddick with the adjustment.  The concrete surface should appeal to the young driver.  He recently claimed a strong eighth-place finish on the concrete surface at Dover.

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran has been very good on the intermediate ovals this season.  That should help equip Buescher with the tools to succeed at Nashville.  With finishes of 19th-, 14th-, seventh-, eighth- and eighth-place on the cookie-cutter ovals, he's been very competitive this year.  In fact, these style tracks have easily been his best on the circuit.  Buescher's NASCAR resume doesn't go back quite far enough to reach Nashville Superspeedway in his past, but that should matter too much.  The vast majority of the young drivers in the field will have little to no experience at this facility.  Buescher is enjoying a career-best season to this point in 2021 and that success should continue in this inaugural Nashville race.

Austin Dillon – The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet has been remarkably consistent on the cookie-cutter tracks in 2021.  Dillon has racked up three Top-10 finishes and a pair of 12th-place finishes on these size tracks this season.  Most recently he peddled the RCR Camaro to a strong sixth-place finish in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte.  Dillon's Xfinity Series career was just getting started when Nashville Superspeedway was phasing out.  However, he did make two starts at the track in 2011.  Dillon grabbed strong seventh- and third-place finishes in those performances.  That is a small sample size for sure, but still much more experience racing at Nashville than most of the field this week.  Dillon shouldn't disappoint in Sunday's Ally 400. 

Matt DiBenedetto – The veteran driver to watch closely this week is DiBenedetto.  The Wood Brothers Racing driver represented himself well this past weekend in the All-Star Open.  He would finish runner-up to Aric Almirola in that 50-lap heat race.  In DiBenedetto's distant past, he does have one Xfinity Series start at the Nashville oval.  In 2010 he raced a part-time schedule for former boss Joe Gibbs.  DiBenedetto's lone start at Nashville Superspeedway netted a steady 10th-place finish in that effort.  This season's Cup Series intermediate oval slate has yielded one Top-5 and two Top-15 finishes for an average finish of 15.4.  Not a stellar mark by any means, but not bad either.  DiBenedetto should have little trouble maintaining the lead lap and forging a Top-15 finish in this 400-mile contest.

Daniel Suarez – The 2021 season has been a pleasant surprise for new team Trackhouse Racing and journeyman driver Suarez.  He has two Top 10's to this point and sits a steady 22nd in the driver points with a 19.3 average finish for the campaign so far.  Intermediate ovals have been his best tracks.  Suarez has managed three Top-15 finishes and an average finish of 16.8, which is 2.5-spots better than his season average.  His most recent outings are strong 11th- and 15th-place performances at Kansas and Charlotte.  Suarez has likely never laid eyes on the Nashville oval, nor turned any laps there.  However, if Dover's similar concrete surface that yielded a ninth-place finish to him is any measure, there's reason for some real optimism and expectations at Nashville Superspeedway.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Joey Logano – Logano has experienced a real mixed bag for a season to this point.  With one victory and nine Top-10 finishes, there's plenty of positives to review.  However, the No. 22 Ford team has not been quite up to the norm on cookie-cutter tracks.  Logano has labored to just one Top-10 finish vs. three finishes outside the Top 15.  The average finish on these style tracks in 2021 is coming in a somewhat disappointing 16.6.  Most recently, Logano labored to an uncharacteristic 17th-place finish at Charlotte in the Coca-Cola 600.  That's a track where he has a career average finish of 12.4.  Despite Logano's past success many years ago at the Nashville Superspeedway, we have to assign a "fade" tag to Logano this week. 

Ryan Blaney – Despite Blaney's victory at Atlanta earlier this season, he's been experiencing some of the same intermediate oval blues of late that his teammate Joey Logano has been suffering.  Finishes of 21st- and 13th-place at Kansas and Charlotte recently are major warning signs entering this first-ever Nashville Cup race.  Blaney has just one Top 10 in the last four races, and the No. 12 team seems to have been caught up in a mild slump of late.  Blaney has zero experience racing at Nashville Superspeedway in his NASCAR touring career, so that will play against him as well in this Ally 400.  Blaney is a good candidate to wait and hold regarding fantasy racing expectations this week.  Deploy him later this summer when he heats back up.      

Aric Almirola –  Almirola's struggles this season are well documented.  He's been a regular face in the weekly slow down list.  We're afraid this trend continues for Nashville.  The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has just one Top 10 this season and is a distant 28th-place in the driver standings.  Almirola is coming off disappointing 29th- and 22nd-place finishes at Kansas and Charlotte, and there seems to be little hope that things will reverse course for this struggling team any time soon.  The driver of the No. 10 Ford has some past experience racing at Nashville during his Xfinity Series career of 2007 to 2011.  He experienced some modest success at the Tennessee oval.  However, his current slump is the overriding theme of the weekend.  

Kurt Busch – Another struggling driver who hasn't shown any signs of pulling out of his slump soon is Busch.  The driver of the No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet has just one Top 10 vs two DNF's on the intermediate oval circuit in 2021.  The average finish is checking in at a lofty 23.8.  Busch's recent sixth-place finish at the road circuit in Sonoma provided some relief, but it's far from registering a good finish on an intermediate oval.  Busch's 22-years of NASCAR experience doesn't offer any experience racing at Nashville Superspeedway.  Unlike the other veterans of the Cup Series, this will be uncharted waters for Busch.  Given his current struggles and unfamiliarity with this race track, we have to recommend the fantasy racing bench this week for this driver and team.