Weekly Preview: Clash in the LA Coliseum

The 2024 NASCAR season will kick off with the annual exhibition race at the Los Angeles Coliseum, the Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum. Most fantasy racing leagues don't recognize this NASCAR exhibition event in the fantasy racing season, but some do along with many daily fantasy racing games and racing pools that form specifically for this event and its unique format. The Busch Clash has historically been held at Daytona International Speedway since its inception in 1979. Two years ago, NASCAR broke with tradition and moved the event to a purpose-built small oval in the Los Angeles Coliseum. The facility constructed a quarter-mile asphalt oval in the historic venue. The competition is open to all NASCAR Cup Series teams, and the entry list shows that there are 40-drivers entered for this intriguing exhibition event.

The racing for this event will be broken down into four qualifying heat races, and then a main event. The following is an outline of the competition format this weekend at the LA Coliseum.     

On Saturday, NASCAR Cup Series competitors will take to the track for practice sessions prior to single car qualifying runs to determine the starting order for the four scheduled heat races. The track will be open to all entrants.

Later Saturday, on-track action will begin with four 25-lap heat races consisting of 10 cars each. Below is a breakdown on how the heat races will be filled out:

• The top four fastest qualifiers from Saturday's single vehicle qualifying session will be on the pole for each heat race, while cars that qualified fifth through eight will make up the other half of the front row in each heat.
• The remainder of each field will be filled out using this methodology (Ex. – heat one will be made up cars with qualifying positions of one, five, nine, 13, 17, 21, 25, 29, 33, 37).
• The top five finishers (20 total cars) from each heat race automatically advance through to the Busch Light Clash, with the winner of heat one winning the pole and the heat two winner earning the outside pole.
• The winners of heats three and four will fill out the second row, with the remaining order of these 16 cars being determined in the same manner.

The remaining five finishing positions from each heat (20 total cars) that did not advance will continue through to the 75-lap Last Chance Qualifying race on Sunday. Below is a breakdown on how the Last Chance Qualifiers will be filled out:

• The starting order for this event will be determined based on finishing positions in the heat races.
• The sixth-place finishers from heats one and two will be on the pole and outside pole for the Last Chance Qualifying race. The sixth-place finishers from heats three and four will be on the second row.
• This pattern will continue to fill out the field for this event.
• The top two finishers from the Last Chance Qualifying race will advance to the Busch Light Clash, filling out positions 21 and 22 of the 23 available positions.

The final spot in the Busch Light Clash is reserved for the driver who finished the highest in the 2023 points standings who does not transfer on finishing position in the heat races or Last Chance Qualifying race. All other drivers will be eliminated from competition in the main event.

This exhibition race will be unlike most NASCAR race weekends due to the unique venue and unique competition format for the event. The teams that show up with fast race cars right off the hauler, and with capable short track drivers will be the ones to beat. For our statistical analysis, we've looked back at the past season of short track racing to get a feel for our top contenders this week.  Below are the statistics for the last five Cup Series events on tracks under one-mile in length.  These include Bristol, Martinsville and Richmond.    

This race and two prior Clashes are completely different than any Busch Light Clash before it due to the extremely short track wrinkle and multiple qualifying heat race format. From the recent stats above we get a very clear picture of who has been the top performers in this style of racing the last year. We'll also cast a discriminating eye towards the results from the prior two Clashes in the Coliseum to see who has had success in this event before. Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin dominated these facilities last season. Those two drivers will be a focus of our attention this week. There are some outside contenders in the mix, and we'll visit those as well. Short track racing can get pretty wild at times, and this oval's newness and uncertainty will add to that mix. We have to keep that possibility in mind as we examine the field.

This exhibition race is unlike any of the normal Cup Series events, so we'll handle the prognostications a bit different as well. We'll give you our picks for who'll contend for the win in the Busch Light Clash main event of 150 laps. That field will consistent of 23 drivers who advance from the earlier rounds, and these are the ones who we see as the top threats to win the first race of 2024 and take the big purse in this Sunday evening spectacle.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – One of the most dominant short track drivers of last season was Larson and his No. 5 Chevrolet team. With Richmond and Martinsville wins as well as a runner-up finish at Bristol, Larson was nearly unstoppable on the small ovals. In addition, he grabbed a dominant victory in the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro, which is not reflected in the numbers in the table above. The Hendrick Motorsports star has been Top 5 in the last two Clash in the Coliseum events, so he's been within striking distance of winning the prior two installments of this exhibition race. Larson is poised to have a huge 2024 campaign and he could easily serve notice in the Clash that he is the driver to beat in the upcoming season.   

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin led 26 laps early in last season's Clash, but ran into some trouble and faded to ninth-place by the checkered flag. The Joe Gibbs Racing star will be looking to rebound and get some revenge for that stumble. No better way than to grab a win in the sequel in the LA Coliseum. Hamlin was strong on the short tracks after his Clash fade last season. He would pick up a win at Bristol in the playoffs, lead well over 400 laps and grab four Top-5 finishes on the bull rings. The 6.0 average finish was among the best in the series on these size ovals. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has been a strong performer on short tracks over the years, and his five-career victories at Martinsville underscore this fact. Hamlin will be a driver to contend for the win this Sunday evening in Los Angeles.

Christopher Bell – Bell was strong on the short tracks during last season's playoffs and that's good momentum to carry into this 2024 kickoff exhibition. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster grabbed a pole at Bristol, led 187 laps and finished third-place in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. A few weeks later he'd secure a strong seventh-place finish at Martinsville. Those were two of three Top 10's Bell would forge on the small ovals in 2023. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota was Top 10 in the inaugural Clash in the Coliseum and he was Top 15 in last season's installment. Bell has yet to really make his mark on this race, but he's poised to be a spoiler this weekend. He's a driver to watch closely in this season-opening exhibition race.             

Kyle Busch – While Busch had some ups-and-downs last season, including some struggles on short tracks, we're ready to overlook that for this weekend. The last two installments of the Clash have seen Busch lead 64 laps and finish second- and third-place in the two events. It's clear that he really likes this small, purpose-built oval. This would seem to reconcile with a majority of his Cup Series career. Busch is one of the most prolific short track performers of the modern era. He's a nine-time winner at Bristol, including once on the dirt. He's also a six-time winner at Richmond and two-time winner at Martinsville Speedway. Those 17-career wins on bull rings rank him among the elite to ever race in the NASCAR Cup Series. Busch will be a factor in the outcome of the Clash this Sunday night.    

Joey Logano – The inaugural winner at the LA Coliseum returns to challenge for another victory in this pre-season exhibition race. Logano took control from Kyle Busch late and led the final 35 laps to secure the victory in the Busch Light Clash. A timely caution flag would set up a restart and dash to the finish. Logano would do a great job defending and would pull out to a near 1-second victory over Busch. The Penske Racing star is also a skilled short track performer. Logano has won five times in his career on small NASCAR ovals. Last season the driver of the No. 22 Ford Mustang was winless on the short tracks, but very consistent. He nabbed three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in five starts on ovals less than one-mile in size, including a brilliant runner-up finish at Martinsville in the spring event. Logano was also a Top-10 finisher last season in the All-Star Race on the small oval in North Wilkesboro. He'll battle among the leaders Sunday evening in LA.   

William Byron – Byron had a wildly successful 2023 campaign, but most of that success didn't happen on the short tracks. However, the driver of the Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet has performed extremely well in the last two Clash at the Coliseum events. Byron registered sixth-place in the inaugural event two seasons ago and he was a respectable 10th-place in this event one year ago. The success all started with good qualifying. Byron performed well in both heat races for those feature events and had excellent starting track position. His 5.5 average start for the Clash the last two years is nothing to gloss over. It's very difficult to pass on this small, purpose-built oval and staring up front is extremely important. We believe Byron will use his past experience to qualify well and possibly challenge for the win in his third start in the LA Coliseum.    

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star was a mixed performer on small ovals last season, but he clearly had speed. His last outing left a big impression as Truex drove to the pole position in Martinsville last fall, led 47 laps before finishing 12th in the Xfinity 500. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota is a six-time short track winner with three victories at Richmond and three at Martinsville, so clearly Truex likes this style of racing. Last February, he sat on the outside pole for the 2023 Clash in the Coliseum, led 25 laps and pulled off the win in last season's exhibition race. It's that type of skill and experience that makes Truex a valid threat to win Sunday night. Some pool and fantasy game players will likely skip over this driver and team, but Truex and company are not to be overlooked.  

Ryan Blaney – Last season's Cup Series champion stepped up on the small oval of Martinsville last October and pulled off an uncharacteristic short track victory at Martinsville Speedway. The win would help propel Blaney to his first Cup Series title. The No. 12 Ford team have surely learned a few things from that outing. Blaney was also a very impressive sixth-place on the short track of North Wilkesboro during last year's All-Star Race. The Penske Racing star rides that momentum into the 2024 season kickoff. Blaney has been a subpar 17th-place in his last two Clash in the Coliseum outings, but this season could be different. The reigning NASCAR champion rides into Los Angeles this weekend with a ton of momentum and confidence. We could likely see that swagger manifest on the small oval.